Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

从教育理念的视角解读高等教育大众化

高等教育大众化过程中出现了一系列令人深思的问题,教育理念的陈旧是其中一个重要原因。因此,变革教育理念是适应高等教育大众化发展的迫切要求。本文论述了高等教育大众化进程中转变教育理念的初步设想及其现实意义。     

Wer das Stabilisieren vergisst: Warum eine schöne Abschlusspräsentation noch kein gutes Ende bedeutet

Many organizational change projects fail — despite a well thought out concept, professional project management and a binding implementation timetable. The reason why the expected success doesn’t materialize often lies with the missing maintenance. Once the project is officially completed and the client and project manager withdraw, the manner in which the organization will take up these changes is seldom systematically dealt with. Difficulties often arise when no discrete stabilizing measures are planned. We have derived four central action areas which will be clarified by way of practical examples. It will also be shown what is important to pay attention to in the stabilization phase so that a lasting success of the organizational change project can be ensured.     

利用孔板及均速管进行空气-水两相流单双参数测量研究

本文利用孔板及均速管的组合对空气-水两相流的流量及质量含气率进行了单、双参数测量研究,给出了两种元件的单参数公式及其双参数组合公式。对3种不同孔径的孔板、4组孔板及均速管间距以及两种型号的均速管进行了研究,获得了比较满意的结果。     

论素质教育和创新教育

论述了素质教育的基本概念 ,素质教育目标的层次性 ,创新教育是素质教育的重点 ,对大学生进行素质教育的具体要求。     

人力资本股份化探讨

本文通过对人力资本及其确认、人力资本的价值与价值计量的研究,按“人力资本的价值取决于它所创造的超额利润（经济增加值）”的原则,设计人力资本价值计量模型,进而探索不同类型人力资本股份化的实现方式,并建议利用期权股份激励创新型人力资本所有者。     

梁启超的法律思想新探

梁启超是中国近代史上一位著名的思想家 ,他的法律思想 ,不仅以变法维新为主要内容 ,提倡“德治”、正确处理好“法治”与“德治”的关系、主张宪政、强调在法律规定范围内的自由等 ,也是梁启超法律思想的重要内容     

跳跃式经济发展模式探讨

根据新兴古典经济学的分工理论和新制度学派的理论工具 ,论述了跳跃式经济发展的两种大推进工业化模式 ,以及由制度结构变迁引发的跳跃式经济发展模式 ,提出了加快科技创新、扩大人力资本投资、发展信息产业和高科技产业等实现路径     

转型期实现内外均衡的政策搭配研究

中国在入世后的10年左右 ,正处于转型经济中。应该通过调节社会总需求、社会总供给等政策工具 ,实现合理搭配 ,以达到中国宏观经济的内外均衡