货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

“一带一路”相关文件政策强度与省域经济开放度关系研究——“一带一路”沿线18个省份实证分析

文章的特色和理论意义在于,尝试量化"一带一路"沿线18个省份"一带一路"相关政策文件,以设计政策效力、政策措施与政策保障的评判要点为基础,确定政策措施强度和政策保障强度.细致讨论"一带一路"文件的政策强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,并讨论该关系在东西部地区的差异以及政策保障强度在政策措施强度与经济开放度关系之中的调节效应.研究发现:政策措施强度能够正向促进省域经济开放度的提升;在经济开放度高于10％的省份中,政策保障强度正向调节政策措施强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,政策措施强度和政策保障强度之间存在互补关系;政策措施强度中资金融通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升有着最显著的正向影响,政策沟通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升影响不显著;政策措施强度对省域经济开放度的提升存在地区差别,西部地区更注重"一带一路"倡议所带来的机会.建议:"一带一路"沿线省份在政策设计上,不仅要对政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等内容作出合理规划和布局,还应对保障机制作出可操作性的安排.     

工业劳动力流动、资本创造与经济地理空间均衡

资本创造模型（CC模型）忽视了要素流动对产业空间分布的影响。而发展的新的资本创造模型则认为资本集聚的过程必然伴随着工业劳动力的流动过程。另外，是资本的实际收益而不是名义收益决定资本是否创造。研究结果表明，随着贸易自由度、工业品支出份额及资本贴现率的变大，替代弹性及资本折旧率的变小，将降低对称结构的稳定性，而提高中心-外围结构的稳定性；经济地理空间的产业均衡是集聚力和分散力相互作用的结果。当企业生产工业品的规模报酬递增程度足够显著，或者工业品支出份额很高时，市场拥挤效应将彻底消失，并转化成为促进产业集聚的动力；突破点与持续点的大小比较可以形成不同的关系，这意味着随着贸易自由度的变化，本文发展的资本创造模型可以体现出多样化的产业空间动态演化行为。     

Policy Learning and Transformational Change: University Policies on Sexual Harassment

ABSTRACT

This essay comes out of my experience as an attendee at the #MeTooPoliSci short course in the American Political Science Association meeting in 2018. I use the framework of policy feedback theory to explain the difficulty in reforming sexual harassment policies at universities and prescribe some actions we as scholars can take to improve the situations at our places of employment.     

Developing and testing a mobile application for breastfeeding support: The Milky Way application

BackgroundSupporting women to continue breastfeeding is a global challenge. The Milky Way Program is an effective face to face intervention to increase breastfeeding rates up to six months postpartum. The sustainability and access to the Milky Way Program could be enhanced by transforming it into a mobile application allowing women to access relevant information from their own place at a convenient time.AimTo explore the process of transforming the Milky Way Program into an acceptable and usable mobile health application.MethodStakeholders including multidisciplinary researchers and end-users designed the application based on the Milky Way Program by using Persuasive System Design principles. A mixed-method approach was used in the development and evaluation process. Seven women were recruited through convenience sampling to pilot test the application. The women’s feedback was collected through an online survey six weeks after birth and individual interviews at four months postpartum.FindingsWomen in the pilot study reported that the breastfeeding application was well designed, easy to use, interactive, reassuring and evidence-based with credible sources of information.ConclusionThe Persuasive System Design model combined with end-user engagement can feasibly inform the development of an acceptable and usable mobile health application for breastfeeding based on a proven clinical intervention. Further rigorous testing is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the application on breastfeeding initiation and duration.     

组织部又来了个年轻人 ——重读《沧浪之水》

从文学史的角度来看，《沧浪之水》讲述的是一个“组织部又来了个年轻人”的故事，是对这一主题的续写和改编，也是对“年轻人”和“人”的又一次重新想象。同时，《沧浪之水》是在“新写实”之后现实主义创作的又一次尝试，它在再一次充分地释放现实主义能量的同时，也同样受到了这一写作方式的限制。这一限制既体现在小说的创作当中，也体现在批评家的批评文本里。     

美国中小学的体验式学习及启示

体验式学习的内涵随着时代的发展而逐渐丰富和深化，但无论其如何演变，直接经验和反思始终是体验式学习这一概念的内核。体验式学习理念渗透于美国教育文化之中。具体表现在：小学阶段的教育以学生的真实感知为基础，注重为学生提供真实体验的机会和激发学生的学习兴趣；中学尤其是高中阶段的教育以学生的真实体验为基础，注重为学生提供在新情境中检验所学知识的机会，注重学生知识、技能的内化吸收。美国中小学体验式学习的实施经验可为我国基础教育课程改革提供如下启示：（1）进一步树立和推广体验式学习理念；（2）创设学生进行真实体验的教学环境；（3）注重实施基于学生体验式学习的表现性评价。     

地方政府公共服务创新实践的发展与生成逻辑

不断推动地方政府公共服务创新是未来实现中国基本公共服务均等化和供给侧结构性改革目标的重要途经。系统梳理历届“中国地方政府创新奖”下公共服务创新类获奖项目的相关文本，探究当前中国地方政府公共服务创新实践发展和生成逻辑。具体涉及地方政府公共服务创新在时间跨度、地域分布上的外在特征，创新类型、创新方式与供给机制的内在结构，其中制度支持、社会需求和政策企业家是地方政府公共服务创新生成的重要基础。在未来中央政府应给予地方政府更多的公共服务创新空间，地方政府在公共服务创新中应更多地考虑群众公共服务需求、接纳社会组织的参与，同时应吸纳更多的体制内和体制外政策企业家来推动创新的持续发展。     

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.     

Enoch Powell,empires, immigrants and education

2018 marks the 50th anniversary of Enoch Powell’s infamous ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech, an intervention that is still viewed as one of the most incendiary statements of the perceived decay and violence likely to follow legislation intended to assure minoritised British citizens of equal rights regardless of their ethnic origin. In this essay, Sally Tomlinson (one of Britain’s foremost multicultural theorists) reflects on Powell’s legacy and the contemporary scene where in the US, UK and across Europe, White resentment and fear is increasingly shaping ‘mainstream’ debates about nationhood, migration and education.