Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

城市治理的基本假设及其幻想

当前关于城市“管理”的理论研究中，“城市治理”的话语正在取代“城市管理”，由此形成的各种对城市的认知也反映在城市的实践中，譬如，提倡提高公众参与、实施精细化治理、信仰信息技术等。通过审视城市治理主张的公众参与假设、技术治理假设和空间治理假设，文章提出治理理论的兴起不足以取代城市管理理论;对管理主义的批评，不能通盘否定“管理”理论对城市的重要作用。主张重塑城市管理理念，以管理思想处理理性与自由的关系，理清并守住政府的职责，警惕唯市场效率，探索多元价值的平衡之道，贡献管理公共性的经验，促进国家治理能力和治理体系的现代化。     

Western Liberal Democracy: The Struggle of Muslims for Freedom,Equality and Dignity

The increasingly multicultural fabric of Western liberal democracies has given rise to the issue of the presence of Muslim minorities in the West, as rising hatred and hostility toward Islam and Muslims in the West undermine the three guiding principles of freedom, equality and dignity that underpin the foundation of liberal democracy, human rights and multiculturalism. Today, Muslims in the West struggle for freedom, equality and dignity to ensure their ethnocultural survival and full and equal participation within the mainstream society. Therefore, it would be quite correct to say that the endurance of liberal democracy, human rights and multiculturalism built on the Western civilization depends on the eradication of Western Islamophobia.     

黑格尔法哲学中的“等级”概念

通过黑格尔在《法哲学原理》中对“等级”的相关论述阐明了“等级”概念的具体含义。黑格尔在精神发展内在逻辑的结构框架下论述了等级理论，展现出理性的机巧。市民社会孕育分化出来的殊多等级由于在理念和现实上的缺陷，必须被纳入政治国家这一更高阶段，实现现实的自由。逻辑和现实的距离终未使伟大人物黑格尔的社会政治理想现实化。     

美国进步主义时期黑人对自由的抗争与追求

美国社会在19世纪末20世纪初经历了一次深刻的变革和急速发展的时期，在经济、政治和文化等领域都产生了巨大的变化，它不仅改变了美国的经济形态和社会图景，同时也冲击和改造了普通人的日常生活。而这一时期黑人的生存状态则发生了更大的变化，随着黑人自身权利意识的觉醒和有组织性斗争的出现，他们采取了多样化的抗争手段，与白人至上社会抗衡，历经苦难，执著地追求属于黑人自己的自由权利，并取得较大的突破。     

二语情感抽象概念加工的具身认知研究

基于具身认知框架下的概念隐喻理论，对中国英语学习者抽象情感词加工的具身认知进行了实证研究。结果发现:（1）二语情感抽象概念存在“积极在上，消极在下”的垂直空间隐喻映射；（2）不同水平组对二语抽象情感词的加工成本存在不对称性；（3）中国英语学习者对不同效价的抽象情感词加工成本趋异。实验结果证明了情感抽象概念能够通过隐喻的方式建立与感知运动信息的联系，情感模拟对二语抽象情感词的加工具有促进作用。     

Freedom of association in the Bangladeshi garment industry: A policy schizophrenia in labour regulation

The right to freedom of association is fundamental for the establishment of labour unionism as an institution. While the Government of Bangladesh requires enabling legal provisions for unionization in its garment industry, regulation to ensure the right to freedom of association has proved ineffective in upholding labour unionism. This article highlights the need for legislation capable of drawing on the complementary skills and resources of the Government, factory owners, labour unions and global brands to secure a sustained commitment and contribution towards the socio-economic and political dimensions of labour relations in Bangladesh's ready-made garment industry.     

Framing human rights: exploring storytelling within internet companies

This article explores human rights storytelling within two of the dominant internet companies, Google and Facebook. Based on interview with company staff as well as analysis of publicly available statements, the article examines how human rights are framed, made sense of and translated into company norms, products, and governance structures. The paper argues that the companies’ framing in many respects resembles that of the United States’ online freedom agenda, celebrating the liberating power of the internet and perceiving human rights as primarily safeguards against repressive governments. The companies see freedom of expression as part of their DNA and do not perceive any contradiction between this standard and business practices that may impact negatively on users’ freedom of expression, such as terms of service enforcement. Likewise, there is no sense of conflict between the online business model and their users’ right to privacy.     

学习迁移的系统理论:PPEE理论模型的建构和意义

学习是人类社会永恒的主题。为了更好地利用过去的经验，增强学习效果，个人和组织进行学习迁移具有重要意义。学习迁移是指将在以往通过学习或解决问题所获得的经验，用于解决之后所遇到的问题。本文力图建立系统的学习迁移理论，研究人、问题、环境的因素对于学习迁移的影响。本文采用理论推导的研究方法，在前人研究的基础上，提出相应的理论模型。本文运用系统的观点，构建了学习迁移的PPEE理论模型，认为人的因素、问题的因素、人和问题的交互作用、以及环境的调节作用，会共同影响学习迁移的效果。本理论主要从五个方面论述学习迁移的机制。首先，将人的因素按照不同层面划分为后端基本能力、中端心理过程、前端知识结构，讨论了其各自对学习迁移效果的直接影响。其次，将问题的因素划分为形象相似性和抽象相似性，并根据这两个维度构建了四种问题间关系类型，并探究了其与学习迁移效果之间的关系。第三，同时考虑人的因素和问题的因素，研究了二者之间的互动对于学习迁移效果的影响。第四，将环境因素划分为时间紧迫性和空间重要性两个维度，探讨了人和环境，以及问题和环境之间的互动对学习迁移效果的影响。第五，基于系统整体的方面，研究人、问题、环境三者之间的互动对学习迁移效果的交互影响。本文还认为，该模型不仅适用于个人，也同样适用于团队、组织、地区、甚至国家和社会等各个层面，影响各个层面主体的学习迁移。本文最后总结了研究的理论和实践贡献，并提出了未来研究课题。本文对丰富学习理论、特别是学习迁移理论，以及推动教育和管理实践的发展进步具有重要的意义。     

A Boy’s Journey and the Journey to Freedom*

The journey to freedom is a literary genre that involves a realization of oppression, a decision to leave, a journey that is both physical and moral, a wilderness experience, a self‐reinvention, and, most importantly, a first person testimonial to the reality of oppression.