Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

When implicit prejudice does not predict explicit prejudice: Spanish version of the Concern with Acting Prejudiced scale / Cuando el prejuicio implícito no predice el explícito: versión española de la escala Concern with Acting Prejudiced

The aim of this research was to adapt and validate the Concern with Acting Prejudiced (CAP) scale for a Spanish sample. This measure evaluates concern about appearing prejudiced to others or oneself and the motivation not to deviate from personal egalitarian standards. First, we completed the translation and an item content validity analysis. Then, in Study 1 (N = 198), we conducted an exploratory factor analysis. In Study 2 (N = 383), we conducted a confirmatory analysis of the unifactorial structure of the Spanish version of the scale and examined its validity. In Study 3 (N = 89), we explored the moderating role of participants’ concern with acting prejudiced in the relation between implicit prejudice and explicit prejudice. The results confirmed the unifactorial structure of the scale, its appropriate psychometric properties and its predictive validity. Moreover, we confirmed that the CAP moderated the relation between implicit and explicit prejudice. In participants with a low concern with acting prejudiced, implicit prejudice was positively related with modern prejudice; in participants with a high concern with acting prejudiced, these variables were not related.     

错位与适应：学前教育小学化“为何”与“何为”

为了探究利益相关者视角下学前教育小学化产生的原因及其对策,以重心下移与深度聚焦为思路,对Z市X区4名家长和2名老师进行访谈,借助扎根理论,建构出学前教育小学化"错位"与"适应"的双重生态。"错位"诠释了学前教育小学化的"为何",具体表现为"主体错位"和"职责错位"的复杂交错。"适应"解释了学前教育小学化的"何为",具体表现为适应主体是"家长、幼儿园和辅导班的三管齐下";适应策略包括"坚决抵抗、无奈妥协、精明调适和无知得意";适应类型是"预防型和善后型、强迫型和引导型、突击型和持久型、长远型和短视型"的相互融合。     

“赞米亚”视角下的近代西南地区基督教的传播与国家适应

詹姆斯?斯科特（James C. Scott）认为，基督教在赞米亚地区广泛传播的主要原因是与山地族群的先知主义和千禧年宇宙观契合，从而使基督教成为山地族群借用的意识形态与谷地国家对抗，逃避谷地的统治。然而民国时期，中国西南山地民族皈信基督教的例子则显示，基督教为这些民族带来符合现代社会秩序的价值理念和行为规范，促使山地民族进入现代性的社会化道路，这恰恰符合了国民政府对于山地民族长期以来的教化愿望，期望将山地民族真正纳入国家的治理体系之下。因而基督教进入“赞米亚”区域，虽然也有逃避统治与国家相对抗的一面，同样也有与国家意识形态相一致的一面，促使山地民族适应国家并进入国家。这可能是斯科特所忽略的一个重要方面。     

The relations between maternal mental state talk and preschoolers’ behavioral adaptation and school readiness: moderation by emotion situation knowledge

This study investigated the extent to which associations between mothers' elaborated talk about mental states and preschoolers’ behavioral adaptation (i.e., social competence and internalizing and externalizing behavior) and school readiness were moderated by emotion situation knowledge. Families (N = 120) were mostly middle‐income and White and 70 of the preschoolers (M = 50.65 months, SD = 6.19) were boys. Results revealed a positive association between elaborated maternal mental state talk and social competence, but only for children average and high in emotion situation knowledge. For children low in emotion situation knowledge, there was a positive association between elaborated maternal mental state talk and internalizing behavior. There also was a negative relation between elaborated maternal mental state talk and school readiness for preschoolers low in emotion situation knowledge. Findings highlight the importance of considering emotion situation knowledge when examining associations between elaborated maternal mental state talk and young children’s social behavioral adaptation and readiness for school.     

农村大学生城市社会的自我适应：内外困境和哲学认知

对高校农村大学生社会适应问题的研究,可从哲学角度探析,得出破解他们自身困境的哲学方法,成为他们应具备的哲 学思维,这种先进的哲学认知和态度才是适应社会首要的认识前提和思想基础。     

What if gender became an essential,standard element of Vulnerability Assessments?

Vulnerability Assessments (VAs) can be useful tools for providing key insights for non-government organisations and other development actors, including governments. Not only can they provide an extensive, ‘landscape-wide’ understanding of vulnerability and its underlying causes in a specific context, but this understanding can be jointly owned by all participants. They can thus be used for designing risk reduction and resilience-building measures, programmes, or projects that affect specific groups within a community or the landscape. Beyond that, VAs can provide a platform that promotes interaction among otherwise disconnected stakeholders, as well as the evidence and argumentation for community groups to engage in advocacy with local and municipal/district authorities. This article draws on our combined experience as development practitioners, and considers what we have learnt about the importance of integrating gender issues into VAs.     

生态环境与云南藏族的文化适应

本文在对云南藏族进行深入调查的基础上 ,从生产方式、生活方式、自然资源管理机制和婚姻家庭模式等方面 ,阐述了云南藏族对其所处生态环境的文化适应。文章认为 ,文化是一个民族对周围的自然环境和社会环境的适应性体系。文化与自然的互动或文化对自然的适应可被称为生态文化 ,生态文化是一个民族对生活于其中的自然环境的适应性体系 ,它包括民族文化体系中所有与自然环境发生互动关系的内容 ,主要是这个民族的宇宙观、生产方式、生活方式、社会组织、宗教信仰、风俗习惯等。为适应迪庆高原特殊的生态环境 ,云南藏族早在历史上就通过文化调适 ,形成了一整套与自然环境良性互动的生态文化体系。面向未来 ,云南藏族生态文化中符合时代要求的内容必将得到复兴 ,其中的古老智慧必将与现代化的科学技术和全球化市场体系相结合 ,成为推动云南藏族走上可持续发展道路的关键