南京中山植物园游憩功能满意度评价研究

随着植物园"旅游经济"的发展,植物园在承担植物科学研究及科普功能的同时,也成为公众日常休闲的重要绿地。本文选取南京中山植物园作为研究对象,建立评价体系并运用模糊综合评价法对游客满意度进行研究,探寻影响植物园游憩功能的显著因子,为未来植物园规划设计提供参考。结果表明:游客对南京中山植物园的游憩功能达到基本满意水平。其中,植物物种多样性、景区分布、建筑景观、声景观的满意度较高,滨水景观的满意度评价值较低。通过Pearson相关系数发现植物色彩丰富度、科普场所、科普内容是影响游客满意度的显著因子。运用IPA图对16项评价因子进行重要度-满意度分析,并对各象限内的因子提出改进方向。最后基于游憩功能满意度评价结果,提出改进策略:加大对植物园休息设施、卫生设施、娱乐设施和商业服务设施的投入;更新科普方式,增添特色游憩主题园区;完善现有道路体系,增强对北部专类园的可达性;增加色叶植物的种类、提高色彩丰富度等。以期为中山植物园游憩功能的优化及其他植物园的规划设计提供借鉴。     

基于最新统计分类标准的数字经济发展水平测度

随着信息技术的发展,数字经济已经成为经济增长的"新引擎"。但由于缺乏权威的产业统计分类标准,学者们一直面临"数字经济研究缺乏数字依据"的尴尬境地。文章基于国家统计局公布并实施的《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中的分类标准,对各省份统计年鉴的数据进行重新整理,利用熵权法构建数字经济发展指数,测度了我国30个省份的数字经济发展水平,分析了各省份数字经济发展的差异以及时空特征。研究发现,2009—2019年我国数字经济产业发展迅猛,各项子产业都取得了长足的进步。相比较而言,数字要素驱动业发展速度略低于其他三个子产业;数字经济发展存在着明显的区域不平衡。东中部地区的数字经济发展状况明显优于西部地区,南方优于北方,而且区域不平衡有持续扩大趋势。     

Factors associated with a positive childbirth experience in Brazilian women: A cross-sectional study

BackgroundHaving a positive childbirth experience is an increasingly valued outcome. Few studies evaluated the women’s satisfaction with childbirth through face-to-face interviews out of the health service environment. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience among Brazilian women.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 287 women giving birth in two hospitals in southern Brazil. Women who gave birth to healthy newborns at term were randomly selected. Face-to-face interviews were conducted 31–37 days after delivery, at the mothers’ homes, using a structured questionnaire. Satisfaction with the childbirth experience was measured using a Likert-type scale ranging from very satisfied to very dissatisfied. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression with robust variance.ResultsFollowing hierarchical multivariate analysis, the following factors remained associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience: being satisfied with antenatal care (PR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.06−1.59), understanding the information provided by health professionals during labor and delivery (PR = 1.40; 95%CI = 1.01−1.95), not having reported disrespect and abuse (PR = 1.53; 95%CI = 1.01−2.31), and having had the baby put to the breast within the first hour of life (PR = 1.63; 95%CI = 1.26−2.11). No association was observed with type of delivery or hospital status (public or private).ConclusionsA higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience is related to satisfactory antenatal care, a non-abusive, respectful, and informative environment during childbirth, and to the opportunity to breastfeed the baby within the first hour of life. In clinical practice, greater attention to these basic principles of care during pregnancy and delivery could provide more positive experiences during birth.     

马克思哲学新的起程——从《黑格尔法哲学批判导言》和《论犹太人问题》看马克思思想转变

马克思与青年黑格尔派彻底决裂后，在批判黑格尔的法哲学和讨论犹太人问题过程中，逐步探索无产阶级革命道路和全人类解放的问题。此后，马克思由宗教批判转变到对现实的人和现实的政治的批判，逐渐形成了实践的观点，认为犹太人的解放只有在人的解放后才能彻底实现，只有革命才是无产阶级实现全人类解放的实践途径。哲学批判的现实性、实践性和实践道路的普适性转变标示着马克思哲学新的起程。     

Developing and testing a mobile application for breastfeeding support: The Milky Way application

BackgroundSupporting women to continue breastfeeding is a global challenge. The Milky Way Program is an effective face to face intervention to increase breastfeeding rates up to six months postpartum. The sustainability and access to the Milky Way Program could be enhanced by transforming it into a mobile application allowing women to access relevant information from their own place at a convenient time.AimTo explore the process of transforming the Milky Way Program into an acceptable and usable mobile health application.MethodStakeholders including multidisciplinary researchers and end-users designed the application based on the Milky Way Program by using Persuasive System Design principles. A mixed-method approach was used in the development and evaluation process. Seven women were recruited through convenience sampling to pilot test the application. The women’s feedback was collected through an online survey six weeks after birth and individual interviews at four months postpartum.FindingsWomen in the pilot study reported that the breastfeeding application was well designed, easy to use, interactive, reassuring and evidence-based with credible sources of information.ConclusionThe Persuasive System Design model combined with end-user engagement can feasibly inform the development of an acceptable and usable mobile health application for breastfeeding based on a proven clinical intervention. Further rigorous testing is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the application on breastfeeding initiation and duration.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

人工智能辅助地方立法的应用与规制

我国地方立法权随着2015年《立法法》的修改扩至所有设区的市，随之掀起地方立法热潮。但目前地方立法的质量普遍不高，存在诸多问题，人工智能技术的应用能为地方立法开辟新路径。基于互联网及大数据的人工智能，能被应用于资料检索、立项论证、立法公开与意见征集、辅助草案起草、立法后评估与备案审查。与此同时，当人工智能被应用于地方立法工作时，需要确立“辅助原则”，规范人工智能地方立法程序的选用标准，限制人工智能地方立法程序的算法，以此来规制人工智能带来的不利影响。     

A comparative study of confidence intervals to assess biosimilarity from analytical data

Assessment of analytical similarity of tier 1 quality attributes is based on a set of hypotheses that tests the mean difference of reference and test products against a margin adjusted for standard deviation of the reference product. Thus, proper assessment of the biosimilarity hypothesis requires statistical tests that account for the uncertainty associated with the estimations of the mean differences and the standard deviation of the reference product. Recently, a linear reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis has been proposed, which facilitates development and implementation of statistical tests. These statistical tests account for the uncertainty in the estimation process of all the unknown parameters. In this paper, we survey methods for constructing confidence intervals for testing the linearized reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis and also compare the performance of the methods. We discuss test procedures using confidence intervals to make possible comparison among recently developed methods as well as other previously developed methods that have not been applied for demonstrating analytical similarity. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the methods based on the ability to maintain the test size and power, as well as computational complexity. We demonstrate the methods using two example applications. At the end, we make recommendations concerning the use of the methods.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.