哈里里遇刺与中东地缘政治生态变化

2005年2月14日,黎巴嫩前总理哈里里遇袭身亡,引发了黎巴嫩政局动荡和叙黎“特殊关系”的危机。黎巴嫩的教派权力之争,阿以冲突引发的矛盾,外部势力的插手、干预是其动荡的根源。围绕黎巴嫩动荡局势而展开的国际关系博弈正在中东上演:举步维艰的叙利亚使出浑身解数进行“绝地反击”;乘胜追击的美国拔钉子、促变革;渔翁得利的以色列除隐患、扩优势。展望黎巴嫩未来局势,叙黎关系、黎巴嫩教派分权制仍是两个不容忽视的主要症结。     

简论革命党人的暗杀活动与清末政局

政治暗杀既是清末十分突出的一种社会现象,也是部分革命党人的基本共识。为了有效地配合武装起义,激发起国人的反抗斗争精神,震慑清统治者,消灭顽固死硬分子,排除革命的阻力,革命党人策划了一系列对清廷重要大员的暗杀活动。尽管这些暗杀活动存在着这样或那样的失误与局限,有的成功,有的不成功,但均对清末政局产生过直接而重大的政治影响,皆是反清革命运动的重要组成部分,都为日后辛亥革命的胜利做出了自己的重要贡献。     

Ray Watching: The Highly Protected,British Prison Experience of Martin Luther King’s Killer

The arrest of James Earl Ray at London Airport on 8 June 1968 marked the final stage of an international manhunt that had begun with the murder of Martin Luther King Jr. on 4 April. Arrested for travelling on a false passport and with an unlicensed firearm, Ray faced extradition to the US to face charges of murder. While in prison in Britain, the US Government feared that he might escape, commit suicide or be himself assassinated. Each of these outcomes risked reigniting the African-American anger that had wracked major US cities in April. Accordingly the UK Government was requested to take special security measures and complied. Was this a supine response from a Labour government anxious to placate a disgruntled superpower ally or did it also reflect contemporaneous UK anxieties about the tense state of race relations at home? Drawing on Home Office records, this article examines these questions.     

无政府主义的传入与辛亥革命时期的暗杀风潮

无政府主义思潮20世纪初传入中国,辛亥革命时期革命党人对它所鼓吹的暴力和暗杀推崇备至,众多革命团体及同盟会都曾将暗杀当作革命的必要手段,遂形成辛亥革命时期的暗杀风潮.暗杀与中国传统文化、革命党人急功近利等因素是分不开的.但它配合武装起义,造成了大规模革命一触即发的客观环境,有一定的历史作用.     

周作人遇刺案新探

1939年元旦发生的周作人遇刺事件,在当时和后世皆引起强烈反响,并成为聚讼纷纭的焦点。当时的亲历者亦对此事加以申说,然囿于时间和视野的局限,相互间多有歧异和抵牾之处。利用周作人遇刺案的档案卷宗,推知当时参与刺杀者实有三人,并对刺杀的过程重新加以梳理和还原,以求对此桩公案的认知有所裨益。     

Assassination of political leaders: The role of social conflict

Given human aggression and warfare are often described as the most pressing behavioral problems of our time, we focus on a related phenomenon, with large-scale social, political, and economic consequences: assassination of political leaders. We explore the role of social conflict as a predictor of political assassination and use historiometric methods and an extensive archival dataset to identify and code for contextual factors associated with social conflict and political homicide. Our results indicate an increase in social conflict increases the likelihood of assassination; moreover, environmental constraints and traditional culture predict leader assassination through social conflict. We discuss implications of these findings and suggest future research on contextual factors, assassination of political leaders, and their collective-level impact.     

试论清末革命党人政治暗杀活动的文化根源

清末革命党人的政治暗杀行为不是偶然孤立的政治行为,而是承袭传统的游侠之风、尚武精神以及对“贤人政治”的反叛,并吸收借鉴当时盛行的俄国“无政府主义”的一种自觉或不自觉的历史行为。     

Inoculation theory and public relations

Inoculation theory explains how an existing state (an attitude, a belief, a position) can be made more resistant to future influence, in much the same way a medical inoculation can make an existing state (a healthy body) more resistant to future viral influence: through pre-exposure to weakened forms of challenges. The theory has established efficacy as an effective messaging strategy in a number of contexts, including politics and health. Another area that has received attention in inoculation theory scholarship is public relations. A comprehensive review of this work, however, is long overdue. We outline existing work in inoculation theory and public relations, and then show how inoculation theory and public relations research can bring new applications and theoretical development to the public relations areas of (1) issues management; (2) crisis and risk communication; and (3) character assassination.