融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法研究

挖掘特定产品的需求模式无法从整体掌握该类产品的市场特征；短生命周期体验品因缺乏历史销售数据，并且销售总量波动性极大，尤其需要从整体掌握销售总量与产品属性间关系的需求特征规律，但又难以挖掘，亟待提出适用于该类产品的需求特征模式挖掘方法。基于按销售总量分区后各区的需求特征的规律性，提出了一种按销售总量分区、以已有产品介绍集和销售总量为源信息、适用于新产品开发前使用、融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法。该方法包括基于内容分析法的产品属性挖掘方法和基于关联分析的产品属性关系模式挖掘方法。前者可以得到较全面的产品属性；后者能够构建不同销售总量区间内产品集的属性关系模式，得到各区间的产品属性关系网，获得高销售总量区间具备，但中、低区间不具备的属性关系模式，从而获得需求特征模式。通过不断更新产品介绍集和销售总量并迭代挖掘，该方法能够动态挖掘需求特征模式。最后利用2013至2016年国产犯罪和爱情类电影数据验证了该方法的可行性，并得到了这两类电影的产品属性及近年的需求特征模式，可用于指导这两类电影的创作。     

Freedom of association in the Bangladeshi garment industry: A policy schizophrenia in labour regulation

The right to freedom of association is fundamental for the establishment of labour unionism as an institution. While the Government of Bangladesh requires enabling legal provisions for unionization in its garment industry, regulation to ensure the right to freedom of association has proved ineffective in upholding labour unionism. This article highlights the need for legislation capable of drawing on the complementary skills and resources of the Government, factory owners, labour unions and global brands to secure a sustained commitment and contribution towards the socio-economic and political dimensions of labour relations in Bangladesh's ready-made garment industry.     

Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts

Abstract

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient for the ranking by any consistent loss function. This article shows, via analytical results and realistic simulation-based analyses, that the presence of misspecified models, parameter estimation error, or nonnested information sets, leads generally to sensitivity to the choice of (consistent) loss function. Thus, rather than merely specifying the target functional, which narrows the set of relevant loss functions only to the class of loss functions consistent for that functional, forecast consumers or survey designers should specify the single specific loss function that will be used to evaluate forecasts. An application to survey forecasts of U.S. inflation illustrates the results.     

Australian and New Zealand Indigenous mothers’ report respect for smoking bans in homes

BackgroundThere is limited data about the reasons behind residential rules to reduce environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure or the establishment or enforcement of such rules in Indigenous populations.AimWe aimed to gain an understanding of smokefree rules around Australian and New Zealand (NZ) Indigenous infants.MethodThis was a qualitative study nested within a randomised controlled trial that aimed to test the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control programme about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) to improve the respiratory health of Indigenous infants in Australia and New Zealand. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 Indigenous mothers of infants in Australia (n = 7) and NZ (n = 19). We asked about the presence of smokefree rules, who set the rules, how the rules were set and enforced, and presence of smokefree rules in participants’ wider social circle. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and inductively analysed to identify key themes.FindingsSixty-nine percent of mothers had partners, 77% smoked and all reported some presence of smokefree rules for house and car. Three main themes were identified: strategies to minimise exposure to ETS, establishing smokefree rules in homes and cars, and, adherence and enforcement of smokefree rules. Several strategies were identified to limit children's exposure to ETS, including rules to limit exposure to third-hand smoke. Mothers extended their smokefree rules to apply to other people's houses or cars, and reported that their family and social circles also had smokefree rules. The main reason for having smokefree rules was for the health of their children. Rules were most commonly set by the mother, often jointly with their partner. Few mothers reported challenges or problems with other people adhering to the smokefree rules.ConclusionWomen tried very hard to, and believed that they were effective in, protecting their children from the harmful effects of ETS exposure. In this context, health professionals need to emphasise smoking cessation in parents, so that children are maximally protected from ETS exposure.     

Estimation and simulation of conditional hazard function in the quasi-associated framework when the observations are linked via a functional single-index structure

We consider the estimation of the conditional hazard function of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked via a single-index structure in the quasi-associated framework. We establish the pointwise almost complete convergence and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the estimate of this model. A simulation is given to illustrate the good behavior in the practice of our methodology.     

A new extension of the FGM copula for negative association

In this paper we introduced a single parameter, absolutely continuous and radially symmetric bivariate extension of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) family of copulas. Specifically, this extension measures the higher negative dependencies than most FGM extensions available in literature. Closed-form formulas for distribution, quantile, density, conditional distribution, regression, Spearman's rho, Kendall's tau, and Gini's gamma are obtained. In addition, a formula for random variate generations is presented in closed-form to facilitate simulation studies. We conduct both paired and multiple comparisons with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas to investigate the performance based on Vuong's test. Furthermore, the new copula is compared with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas using both Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type test statistics. Finally, a bivariate dataset is analyzed to compare and illustrate the flexibility of the new copula for negative dependence.     

Measures of Association and Visualization of Log Odds Ratio Structure for a Two Way Contingency Table

The odds ratio (OR) is a measure of association used for analysing an I × J contingency table. The total number of ORs to check grows with I and J. Several statistical methods have been developed for summarising them. These methods begin from two different starting points, the I × J contingency table and the two‐way table composed by the ORs. In this paper we focus our attention on the relationship between these methods and point out that, for an exhaustive analysis of association through log ORs, it is necessary to consider all the outcomes of these methods. We also introduce some new methodological and graphical features. In order to illustrate previously used methodologies, we consider a data table of the cross‐classification of the colour of eyes and hair of 5387 children from Scotland. We point out how, through the log OR analysis, it is possible to extract useful information about the association between variables.     

盐类物质对泥质烃源岩生排烃过程的影响

根据中国东部下第三系盐湖相沉积存在的地质实际,利用地层孔隙热压生排烃模拟仪开展了仿真地层条件下的含盐和不含盐泥质烃源岩的生排烃模拟实验,通过对烃类产物的分析探讨了盐类物质参与烃源岩生排烃的过程。研究表明：（1）盐类的存在加速了成烃演化,促进了石油和天然气的生成;（2）盐类的存在降低了对有机质的吸附能力,加速了粘土转化和脱水过程,且盐层易解理,使烃源岩中微孔隙及孔缝发育,促进了油气的初次运移;（3）无盐泥质源岩发育区虽然滞留大量的石油资源,但由于其岩石本身难压裂,对于商业化开采页岩油并无太大意义,到达过成熟阶段后,可能是页岩气开采的有利区带。盐岩发育区虽然其整体演化过程中生成的油气易于排出,但在Ro=1.28%时仍然滞留着20% 的石油资源,富含大量的盐类脆性矿物而低含粘土矿物,有利于产生裂缝,易于压裂,是页岩油藏勘探的有利区带。     

生态视域下的森林管理制度变迁及其反思——云南M县案例研究

管理制度变迁对生态演变具有显著的影响。传统时期地方社会有一套有效的森林管理制度。以云南M县为例,通过对森林使用的类型划分,乡规民约和信仰、禁忌,地方传统有效地保护了当地的森林。1949年以来,由于地方社会组织、制度和信仰禁忌的破坏,森林遭受严重砍伐。此后,现代森林管理制度逐步建立。现代森林管理制度在操作中的问题体现在：正式管理制度的低嵌入性、管理人员地方性知识缺乏、管理和执法力量的弱覆盖性和管理机构的利益化取向。因此,需要探索正式制度与非正式制度互补的管理模式。     

合理构建无穷级数教学内容体系的教学探究

针对高等数学课程中无穷级数部分的内容,提出了建立级数的概念与求和符号及数列极限之间、幂级数与函数的泰勒展开式之间以及傅里叶级数与泰勒级数之间联系的一种新的教学理念,并以此为依据改进了教学内容体系,提高了学生对这部分知识的学习效果。