Does Joint Physical Custody “Cause” Children’s Better Outcomes?

ABSTRACT

Policymakers and researchers are concerned with whether joint physical custody (JPC) produces better outcomes for children than sole custody. Although several review articles summarizing up to 61 empirical articles demonstrate very positive answers, many of the research designs used compromise the ability to claim that it is JPC per se—and not selection effects—that causes the effect. We discuss several research design issues, such as propensity score analysis, that can more powerfully probe the question of causality. Some studies have already been conducted employing these strategies and more are recommended and likely to soon be forthcoming. On the basis of this comprehensive review we conclude that JPC probably does cause benefits to children on average, and that social scientists can now provisionally recommend rebuttably presumptive JPC to policymakers.     

Principal stratum strategy: Potential role in drug development

A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding the treatment effect in subpopulations of patients, which would experience clinical or disease related events post-randomization. Events that occur after treatment initiation and potentially affect the interpretation or the existence of the measurements are called intercurrent events in the ICH E9(R1) guideline. If the intercurrent event is a consequence of treatment, randomization alone is no longer sufficient to meaningfully estimate the treatment effect. Analyses comparing the subgroups of patients without the intercurrent events for intervention and control will not estimate a causal effect. This is well known, but post-hoc analyses of this kind are commonly performed in drug development. An alternative approach is the principal stratum strategy, which classifies subjects according to their potential occurrence of an intercurrent event on both study arms. We illustrate with examples that questions formulated through principal strata occur naturally in drug development and argue that approaching these questions with the ICH E9(R1) estimand framework has the potential to lead to more transparent assumptions as well as more adequate analyses and conclusions. In addition, we provide an overview of assumptions required for estimation of effects in principal strata. Most of these assumptions are unverifiable and should hence be based on solid scientific understanding. Sensitivity analyses are needed to assess robustness of conclusions.     

Materialism,emergentism, and social structure: A response to Wendt's Quantum Mind

This paper is a response to the new book by Alexander Wendt (2015) entitled Quantum Mind. The paper commends Wendt on the book's contribution to our understanding, particularly of quantum mechanics, panpsychism, and externalism in the philosophy of mind. At the same time, it takes issue with Wendt's overall thesis, particularly as it relates to materialism, emergentism, and social structure.     

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

学前儿童基于重量和声音进行因果推理的发展研究

儿童的推理能力历来都是考察儿童认知发展的重点。本研究探讨了在多种属性刺激下3~5岁儿童基于重量和声音进行 因果推理的表现。结果发现：4岁和5岁儿童选择正确目标物的准确率显著高于3岁儿童；和同时使用声音与重量判断目标物相 比，儿童在单独使用重量或声音的情况下更容易区分目标物。总之，儿童因果推理能力发展的关键期在4岁并且当任务难度较高 的情况下其因果机制极易受到干扰。     

A simple,doubly robust,efficient estimator for survival functions using pseudo observations

Survival functions are often estimated by nonparametric estimators such as the Kaplan‐Meier estimator. For valid estimation, proper adjustment for confounding factors is needed when treatment assignment may depend on confounding factors. Inverse probability weighting is a commonly used approach, especially when there is a large number of potential confounders to adjust for. Direct adjustment may also be used if the relationship between the time‐to‐event and all confounders can be modeled. However, either approach requires a correctly specified model for the relationship between confounders and treatment allocation or between confounders and the time‐to‐event. We propose a pseudo‐observation–based doubly robust estimator, which is valid when either the treatment allocation model or the time‐to‐event model is correctly specified and is generally more efficient than the inverse probability weighting approach. The approach can be easily implemented using standard software. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate this approach under a number of scenarios, and the results are presented and discussed. The results confirm robustness and efficiency of the proposed approach. A real data example is also provided for illustration.     

Estimation of Causal Odds of Concordance using the Aalen Additive Model

A simple summary of a treatment effect is attractive, which is part of the explanation of the success of the Cox model when analysing time‐to‐event data since the relative risk measure is such a convenient summary measure. In practice, however, the Cox model may fail to give a reasonable fit, very often because of time‐changing treatment effect. The Aalen additive hazards model may be a good alternative as time‐changing effects are easily modelled within this model, but results are then evidently more complicated to communicate. In such situations, the odds of concordance measure (OC) is a convenient way of communicating results, and recently Martinussen & Pipper (2012) showed how a variant of the OC measure may be estimated based on the Aalen additive hazards model. In this study, we propose an estimator that should be preferred in observational studies as it always estimates the causal effect on the chosen scale, only assuming that there are no un‐measured confounders. The resulting estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and an estimator of its limiting variance is provided. Two real applications are provided.     

Periodic integer-valued bilinear time series model

This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a periodic integer-valued diagonal bilinear model. The existence of a periodically strict stationary integer-valued process is shown. Sufficient conditions for the periodically stationary, both in the first and second orders, are established. The closed-forms of the mean and the second moment are obtained. The closed-form of the periodic autocovariance function is established. The Yule–Walker estimations of the underlying parameters are obtained. A simulation study is provided.     

Developing critical and empathic capabilities in intercultural education through the VaKE approach

One of the core goals of intercultural education is to develop critical and empathic reflection on social justice, particularly as related to humanistic choices and how individuals can counteract exclusion. The present article analyses the Values and Knowledge Education (VaKE) approach, which is aimed at raising awareness about implicit value-oriented priorities in decision-making. Through the Human Development and Capability Approach, the applicability of VaKE’s didactic principles is analysed in relation to young people’s perspectives on resettlement in Europe. The VaKE method was used at a 2013 summer camp in Austria with a culturally diverse group of young Europeans who were presented with a dilemma story that highlighted the complex issue of providing assistance to asylum seekers. The participants engaged in various knowledge and moral viability checks that enabled them to engage with opposing arguments. The participants evidenced critical reflection and self-scrutiny, as well as affiliation and empathic imagination, regarding problems that are encountered by asylum seekers.