Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

信息技术与高中数学课程整合探究

信息技术与数学课程整合已成为必然趋势,各种教学辅助软件的出现使教师应接不暇。数学软件Maple凭借其简单的操作和强大的功能等优势被越来越多的数学教师作为辅助教学软件。本文用数学实验的方法介绍了Maple在高中数学教学中的几个应用实例,并对信息技术与课程整合与传统教学法之间的优缺点进行了比较。     

State work and the testing concours of citizenship

Anyone trying to be a citizen has to pass through a set of practices trying to be a state. This paper investigates some of the ways testing practices calibrate citizens, and in doing so, perform “the state.” The paper focuses on three forms of citizenship testing, which it considers exemplary forms of “state work,” and which all, in various ways, concern “migration.” First, the constitution of a “border crossing,” which requires an identity test configured by deceptibility. Second, the Dutch asylum process, in which “being gay” can, in certain cases, be reason for being granted asylum, but where “being gay” is also the outcome of an examination organized by suspicion. And third, the Dutch measurement of immigrants’ “integration,” which is comprised of a testing process in which such factishes as “being a member of society” and “being modern” surface. Citizenship is analyzed in this paper as accrued and (re)configured along a migration trajectory that takes shape as a testing concours, meaning that subjects become citizens along a trajectory of testing practices. In contributing both to work on states and citizenship, and to work on testing, this paper thus puts forward the concept of citizenship testing as state work, where “state work is the term for that kind of labor that most knows itself as comparison, equivalency, and exchange in the social realm” (Harney, 2002, pp. 10–11). Throughout the testing practices discussed here, comparison, equivalency, and exchange figure prominently as the practical achievements of crafting states and citizens.     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

虚拟空间交织的取向原则

虚拟空间交织是人们常用的思维与认知方式之一。本文通过对交织及其原则的介绍,描述了虚拟空间交织的运作,指出虚拟空间交织构建中主观取向的原则应为最佳关联。     

供应链与海尔的战略调整

供应链是现代工商业的一种新的业态形式 ,它通过有效的客户和市场管理、对客户需求的准确预测和迅速反应以及最大程度地降低从原材料到生产、再到销售整个过程的库存和运转费用 ,为终端顾客提供最大的让渡价值 ,提高供应链成员整体的竞争力。海尔集团以超前性的战略眼光对公司的组织管理结构和经营方式进行了战略性的调整 ,为推行供应链管理和经营创造了条件。     

人力资源管理理论整体性缺陷与对策

当前人力资源管理理论缺陷引起多方面的重视 ,这些缺陷可以归结为理论的整体性缺陷。对人力资源管理的定义、历史和研究方法的分析表明 ,人力资源管理概念上的不完整和冲突 ,研究对象、范围和方法的不全面 ,以及核心原理的缺失是造成人力资源管理理论整体性缺陷的根源 ,由此能够找到克服整体性缺陷的对策     

论资本市场全球一体化趋势

资本市场全球一体化是当前全球资本市场发展的基本趋势。是指相对独立的全球各主要资本市场日益融合形成的统一市场网络组织结构体系。表现为市场组织形式的全球网络化 ;筹资主体的国际化 ;投资者的机构化及投资活动的国际化 ;资本流动的全球化 ;同质的金融资产价格趋同化 ;金融机构经营业务的混业化和全球化。资本市场全球一体化降低了市场主体的交易成本 ,提高了市场效率 ;为一些国家调节国际收支失衡与国际储备的保值增值提供了便利条件 ;有利于长期资本的优化配置 ,促进世界经济增长。同时也使各国运用货币政策调控宏观经济的有效性降低 ;市场的系统性风险增大 ;金融监管面临新的挑战     

科学心理学研究方法论的比较与整合

科学心理学形成以来 ,西方主要流派的研究方法论在心理科学的发展中有其贡献和局限。通过客观、发展的观点对心理学研究方法论的演化过程进行比较和分析 ,发现建构一个全面的、系统的、综合的心理学研究方法论是极其必要的 ,而且更具有现实可能性