Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

认知鸿沟视角下的网络谣言传播影响因素研究——以台湾洪仲丘事件为例

从认知心理角度，以平衡理论、一致性理论与认知失调理论为基础，延伸出认知鸿沟概念，探讨虚拟世界中的网络谣言传播，分析中国台湾地区网民对于2013年发生的重大社会事件洪仲丘命案，检视认知鸿沟、信任态度、误信谣言到再传递的过程。透过量化问卷调查进行实证，分析604份有效问卷。结果显示:当产生的认知鸿沟越大时，民众会越相信谣言，在态度上也越不会信任中国台湾军方与地区行政当局，在行为上也越倾向于将讯息再次传递出去。此外，从模型结构中也发现，相信谣言这个变量，在认知鸿沟与网络传播的路径间扮演重要的中介变量角色，显示认知鸿沟不仅会对讯息传递产生直接效果，还会通过误信谣言造成间接效果，然而，这种显著的中介角色在军政信任变量上却未发现。     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊，相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”，表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响，其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据，对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比，分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。     

From cognitive dissonance to cognitive Polyphasia: A sociocultural approach to understanding meat‐paradox

Cognitive Dissonance Theory seeks to understand inconsistency by situating it within individual cognition. By doing so, it overlooks the role of the social context in the experience and management of inconsistency and dissonance and fails to capture the processes through which it is negotiated when it appears. On the other side, the cognitive polyphasia hypothesis together with a dialogical approach on Social Representations provide a socioculturally situated, process‐oriented understanding of inconsistency. In this paper, meat‐paradox, the phenomenon of simultaneously declaring love and respect towards animals and also consuming animals, mainly studied through Cognitive Dissonance Theory, is used in order to highlight the merits of a sociocultural approach to inconsistency. Four relevant empirical examples from interviews and focus groups with meat‐eaters and vegetarians in Cyprus are used to illustrate the approach. The examples illustrate how meat‐eaters manage dissonance in ways that exhibit coexistence of contradictory representations and ways of thinking. Three different modalities of knowledge coexistence are identified, as proposed by cognitive polyphasia researchers: displacement, selective prevalence and hybridisation. We discuss the importance of a sociocultural approach to studying paradoxes, the epistemological and methodological implications of such a theorisation and we suggest other life contexts in which such an approach can be applied.     

Risk factors for child maltreatment in South Korea: An investigation of a nationally representative sample

This study investigated the risk factors associated with the occurrence of child physical and psychological abuse in South Korea based on the ecological theory of child maltreatment. A subsample of 3‐ to 18‐year‐old children from “A Study on the Current State of Child Abuse and Neglect,” a nationally representative study on child abuse and neglect, was utilized for secondary data analysis. The sample was divided into two age groups (third graders in elementary school and below and fourth graders and above). We utilized hierarchical logistic regression for each age group separately to analyze the data. The variables at each level of the system (i.e., ontogenic development, microsystem, and exosystem) were entered into the model in sequential order. The results showed the common risk factors for both age groups are the caregiver's experience of abuse in childhood, the child's problem behavior, exposure to domestic violence, community size, and informal social control. The child's age was also significant in both groups but in the opposite direction. Social support was a significant predictor for the younger age group only, while the caregiver's level of education was significant for the older age group only. Implications for future research and practice are discussed based on the study results.     

作为评价尺度的儿童文学人物形象塑造

人物形象塑造是儿童文学基础理论研究的一个重要课题，在当前我国原创儿童文学形象塑造不力的背景下显得尤为迫切而重要。儿童文学特殊的文类属性及其基本功能决定其人物形象是召唤并引领儿童读者展开审美体验的关键精神力量，大量经典儿童文学呈现出这样的文学规律。总结我国百年儿童文学人物形象的变迁及发展发现，形象塑造的美学症结依然在于解决成人社会观念中的“儿童本位”问题。     

政务大厅服务效能影响因素实证分析

政务大厅在积极开展创新实践的同时，也存在区域发展不平衡、部门协调难、窗口忙闲不均等诸多问题。量化政务大厅的服务效能，有效识别影响服务效能的关键因素，对于更快更好发挥大厅在"放管服"改革中的作用具有重要的现实意义。文献回顾与理论推演相结合提炼出大厅服务效能评价指标以及效能影响因素指标，基于普查数据量化指标，采用主成分分析法评价服务效能，构建回归模型，同时考虑大厅发展的区域性差异，分别从总体和分区域进行实证分析。研究结果表明，服务模式、生产要素、服务内容均会对大厅服务效能产生影响，且各区域大厅的具体影响因素和因素的影响程度均存在较大差异。基于此，应因地制宜开展大厅服务模式创新；推动大厅建设标准制定；落实审批事项全面进驻大厅，丰富大厅服务种类，优化服务结构。     

语义场理论对科技术语翻译的启示从——“水资源管理”一词的英汉互译谈起

科技术语在不同语言之间的翻译是一个复杂的语义匹配过程，如何在考虑相关术语使用现状的基础上将新产生的科技术语准确翻译为其它语言是科技工作者和术语研究者关注的重要问题。以语义场理论为分析框架，通过分析以"水资源管理"及其相关术语为代表的英汉互译，结果发现：不同科技术语在同一语义场所涵盖的语义范围将会随着相关研究深化带来的术语界定细化而发生相应的动态变化；新兴科技术语的翻译要充分考虑其所在语义场其它相关科技术语的翻译先例和使用现状所带来的影响，在翻译准确性和解读便利性之间做出适当的平衡。这是造成"水资源管理"及相关术语英汉互译处理极为复杂的重要原因之一，需要科技翻译者在工作实践中多加注意。     

建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制研究

改革开放以来，我国经济发展取得了巨大成就，但也面临一些重大挑战，特别是本土企业加入、依赖跨国公司主导的产业链，在短期内得以迅速发展的同时，也导致本土产业链出现了断裂和碎片化的问题，这对本土企业的创新和发展是不利的。文章研究在我国建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制的基本规律和特点，为提高本土企业的创新能力提供借鉴。研究的主要发现是，这是一个复杂和曲折的过程，在这一过程的启动阶段和转折阶段，非经济因素或者至少是长期经济因素而不是短期经济因素具有独特的、非常重要的作用。     

Analysing facilitating and hindering factors for implementing gender equality interventions in R&I: Structures and processes

This article analyses the facilitating and hindering factors that have affected the implementation of gender equality interventions in research and innovation in Europe. It applies the evaluation framework developed in the EFFORTI project that recognizes the complexity of evaluating gender equality interventions in R&I, the importance of factoring in context to any sound evaluation as well as the need to distinguish between the design and implementation of interventions in evaluations. It is based on the analysis of 19 empirical case studies carried out throughout Europe and focuses on those structural and procedural factors that have either facilitated or hindered the implementation process of these interventions. Findings include how the governance framework; top-management commitment; bottom-up participation; framing synergies with other initiatives, strategies for tackling resistance; resources; sustainability of actions; gender competence, experience and knowledge and transparency, targets, standards and monitoring; and accessible data and information all contributed to the successful implementation of the interventions.