The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

A surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process and applications

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process, which is a generalization of the classical ruin model where the claim-counting process is a homogeneous Poisson process. The incentive is to model batch arrival of claims using a counting process that is based on a compound distribution. This reduces the difficulty of modeling claim amounts and is consistent with industrial data. Recursive formula, some properties and relevant main ruin theory results are provided. Further, we consider applications involving zero-truncated negative binomial and zero-truncated binomial batch arrivals when the claim amounts follow exponential or Erlang distribution.     

Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

Correlated random effects regression analysis for a log-normally distributed variable

In regression analysis, it is assumed that the response (or dependent variable) distribution is Normal, and errors are homoscedastic and uncorrelated. However, in practice, these assumptions are rarely satisfied by a real data set. To stabilize the heteroscedastic response variance, generally, log-transformation is suggested. Consequently, the response variable distribution approaches nearer to the Normal distribution. As a result, the model fit of the data is improved. Practically, a proper (seems to be suitable) transformation may not always stabilize the variance, and the response distribution may not reduce to Normal distribution. The present article assumes that the response distribution is log-normal with compound autocorrelated errors. Under these situations, estimation and testing of hypotheses regarding regression parameters have been derived. From a set of reduced data, we have derived the best linear unbiased estimators of all the regression coefficients, except the intercept which is often unimportant in practice. Unknown correlation parameters have been estimated. In this connection, we have derived a test rule for testing any set of linear hypotheses of the unknown regression coefficients. In addition, we have developed the confidence ellipsoids of a set of estimable functions of regression coefficients. For the fitted regression equation, an index of fit has been proposed. A simulated study illustrates the results derived in this report.     

危险驾驶罪的立法浅析

《刑法修正案(八)》将醉驾、飙车行为入罪，对严厉醉驾行为确实起到了震慑作用，收到了积极的社会效果。但是，对于刑法的提前介入以及该罪的内涵与外延该如何理解；社会舆论对于醉驾行为的性质还存在行为犯或者危险犯的争论：这些问题对于该罪在司法实践中的适用极其重要，值得我们深入思考。     

Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

分段启动压力对宝浪油田驱动压差的影响

摘要：渗透率低于 10 mD 的特低渗储层与平均渗透率大于 20 mD 的低渗储层开发技术政策界限和开发方案制定等有很大的差别，渗透率越低，其启动压力成倍增加，这就影响了开发技术和方案的制定。应用分段启动压力梯度进行分段计算并进行对比，计算结果表明：用同一启动压力梯度计算的结果不符合实际情况，而应用分段启动压力梯度计算的结果更能很好地反映特低渗储层的实际情况；井距对较高渗透率的驱动压力计算影响并不大，但对于特低渗储层的驱动压力计算则影响很大。     

论《齐民要术》新生复合词中的同义词

《齐民要术》是中古时期口语性较强的一部农业科技著作，书中使用了较多复合词，有的复合词意义相近或相关，彼此聚合成群，形成了不同的同义词词场。这些同义词词场中的复合词在构词上都有相同的特点：即构成复合词的两个语素单用时意义相近或相关，这样的复合词应是当时的语言社团根据已有的并列式构词法创造的新词。在汉语词汇的历时发展中，《齐民要术》中使用的同义复合词呈现出不同的发展结果：由曾经常用的单音词作语素构成的复合词或易于通过隐喻机制形成新义的复合词使用频率相对较高，生命力相对较强，在竞争中也相对较容易发展成汉语中的常用复合词；使用频率低或难以产生隐喻引申义的复合词很容易退出语言交际领域，从而成为汉语词汇历史发展中某阶段的陈迹。     

“或者说”类有标选择复句的语义类型及语用机制考察

探讨了＂或者说＂类有标选择复句较为典型的六种语义类型,即＂等义近义＂型、＂概括→具体＂型、＂绝对→相对＂型、程度上的＂轻→重＂型、＂包含与被包含＂型、＂迂回曲折＂型。此外从哲学依据、认知依据以及语用策略这三个方面探讨＂或者说＂类有标选择复句的语用机制。从哲学的角度来看,＂同中有异,异中有同＂的规律制约着＂或者说＂类有标选择复句的使用;从认知角度来看,＂横看成岭侧成峰＂的认知规律也制约着它的使用。另外,＂或者说＂类有标选择复句的实际运用还受到＂求稳求准＂的语用策略的制约。     

我国区域多机场复合系统协调发展研究

我国区域多机场复合系统发展存在区域内总航空运输需求不足,新机场航空运输量不足,非主要机场运输量不稳定,区域多机场分配运量难等现状。大都市区在确定是否发展多机场系统以及在规划发展多机场复合系统时,要从始发旅客需要达到一定的阀值、大力发展低成本航空公司、多机场系统分工协作等方面考虑发展策略。