Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

城市治理的基本假设及其幻想

当前关于城市“管理”的理论研究中，“城市治理”的话语正在取代“城市管理”，由此形成的各种对城市的认知也反映在城市的实践中，譬如，提倡提高公众参与、实施精细化治理、信仰信息技术等。通过审视城市治理主张的公众参与假设、技术治理假设和空间治理假设，文章提出治理理论的兴起不足以取代城市管理理论;对管理主义的批评，不能通盘否定“管理”理论对城市的重要作用。主张重塑城市管理理念，以管理思想处理理性与自由的关系，理清并守住政府的职责，警惕唯市场效率，探索多元价值的平衡之道，贡献管理公共性的经验，促进国家治理能力和治理体系的现代化。     

Western Liberal Democracy: The Struggle of Muslims for Freedom,Equality and Dignity

The increasingly multicultural fabric of Western liberal democracies has given rise to the issue of the presence of Muslim minorities in the West, as rising hatred and hostility toward Islam and Muslims in the West undermine the three guiding principles of freedom, equality and dignity that underpin the foundation of liberal democracy, human rights and multiculturalism. Today, Muslims in the West struggle for freedom, equality and dignity to ensure their ethnocultural survival and full and equal participation within the mainstream society. Therefore, it would be quite correct to say that the endurance of liberal democracy, human rights and multiculturalism built on the Western civilization depends on the eradication of Western Islamophobia.     

黑格尔法哲学中的“等级”概念

通过黑格尔在《法哲学原理》中对“等级”的相关论述阐明了“等级”概念的具体含义。黑格尔在精神发展内在逻辑的结构框架下论述了等级理论，展现出理性的机巧。市民社会孕育分化出来的殊多等级由于在理念和现实上的缺陷，必须被纳入政治国家这一更高阶段，实现现实的自由。逻辑和现实的距离终未使伟大人物黑格尔的社会政治理想现实化。     

美国进步主义时期黑人对自由的抗争与追求

美国社会在19世纪末20世纪初经历了一次深刻的变革和急速发展的时期，在经济、政治和文化等领域都产生了巨大的变化，它不仅改变了美国的经济形态和社会图景，同时也冲击和改造了普通人的日常生活。而这一时期黑人的生存状态则发生了更大的变化，随着黑人自身权利意识的觉醒和有组织性斗争的出现，他们采取了多样化的抗争手段，与白人至上社会抗衡，历经苦难，执著地追求属于黑人自己的自由权利，并取得较大的突破。     

Freedom of association in the Bangladeshi garment industry: A policy schizophrenia in labour regulation

The right to freedom of association is fundamental for the establishment of labour unionism as an institution. While the Government of Bangladesh requires enabling legal provisions for unionization in its garment industry, regulation to ensure the right to freedom of association has proved ineffective in upholding labour unionism. This article highlights the need for legislation capable of drawing on the complementary skills and resources of the Government, factory owners, labour unions and global brands to secure a sustained commitment and contribution towards the socio-economic and political dimensions of labour relations in Bangladesh's ready-made garment industry.     

Framing human rights: exploring storytelling within internet companies

This article explores human rights storytelling within two of the dominant internet companies, Google and Facebook. Based on interview with company staff as well as analysis of publicly available statements, the article examines how human rights are framed, made sense of and translated into company norms, products, and governance structures. The paper argues that the companies’ framing in many respects resembles that of the United States’ online freedom agenda, celebrating the liberating power of the internet and perceiving human rights as primarily safeguards against repressive governments. The companies see freedom of expression as part of their DNA and do not perceive any contradiction between this standard and business practices that may impact negatively on users’ freedom of expression, such as terms of service enforcement. Likewise, there is no sense of conflict between the online business model and their users’ right to privacy.     

A Boy’s Journey and the Journey to Freedom*

The journey to freedom is a literary genre that involves a realization of oppression, a decision to leave, a journey that is both physical and moral, a wilderness experience, a self‐reinvention, and, most importantly, a first person testimonial to the reality of oppression.     

“逐去其君，削去尊贵爵位”：蠡勺居士革命思想管窥

蠡勺居士1873年翻译并发表了英国小说家爱德华·布韦尔-利顿的小说《夜与晨》,译名《昕夕闲谈》。译者借翻译之便在小说中介绍法国革命爆发的原因和拿破仑的政治改革为巴黎带来的新风气,说明社会变革的基础在于启蒙教育,强调文人著书立说在法国革命过程中所起的积极作用,指出革命成功的手段是"逐君"和"削爵"。他向国人展示了法国革命的成果,"人人自由平权",国家"恍如新例之国"。蠡勺居士在翻译中受原著作者布韦尔-利顿的影响,利用小说传递新思想,以法国革命的成功为例给晚清提出革命性启示,也为中国近代社会变革提出理论和实践指导方策。     

On the Properties of the Likelihood Function of Spanos' Conditional t Heteroskedastic Model

This article investigates the properties of the likelihood function of Spanos’ conditional t heteroskedastic model (Spanos, 1994 Spanos , A. ( 1994 ). On modeling heteroskedasticity: The student's t and elliptical linear regression models . Econometric Theor. 10 : 286 – 315 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) On modeling heteroskedasticity: the student's t and elliptical linear regression models. It is shown that estimability of the degrees of freedom of t distribution and the block-diagonality of the information matrix of the joint likelihood function with respect to conditional mean parameters and remaining parameters hold for the model. The joint maximum likelihood estimator and its inference based on the t-statistic and χ²-statistic are examined in finite samples by simulation when the degrees of freedom is known and unknown.