Israel's military public diplomacy evolution: Historical and conceptual dimensions

This study provides an historical overview of the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit (ISU) from the early years of the State of Israel until 2009. Analyzing five periods during which the ISU played a key role in Israel's public diplomacy, this research sheds light on the challenges the ISU faced in different periods and circumstances and examines how the ISU tried to modify its methods and actions in response to geopolitical changes and media development, albeit not always successfully. The study suggests better understanding the adaptation process by applying a three-layer framework for analysis: the tactical layer, the strategic layer and the perceptional layer. The findings of this work demonstrate that in adapting to new circumstances, the ISU focused mainly on the tactical response level, with the result that it did not undertake any review or debate over the need for deeper perceptional changes in ISU policies.     

Testing an Integrative Contextual Career Development Model With Adolescents From High‐Poverty Urban Areas

Variations in the economic recovery rate across the United States have led to even greater chasms that separate the employed, unemployed, and underemployed (DeSilver, 2017 ). Therefore, understanding and supporting the career development of future generations is critical—especially for those who live outside the context of social privilege. The authors examined the applicability of the integrative contextual model of career development (ICM; Lapan, 2004 ) to a sample of 220 adolescents (129 boys, 91 girls) from a high‐poverty urban area. Results indicated that a canonical variate comprising foundational ICM skills (e.g., career exploration, goal setting) predicted a variate composed of ICM outcomes (e.g., self‐efficacy, vocational identity), thus supporting the usefulness of the ICM framework for this population. The skill of setting viable career goals was an especially strong predictor of outcomes. Implications for career counseling with adolescents living in high‐poverty urban areas and directions for future research are discussed.     

When implicit prejudice does not predict explicit prejudice: Spanish version of the Concern with Acting Prejudiced scale / Cuando el prejuicio implícito no predice el explícito: versión española de la escala Concern with Acting Prejudiced

The aim of this research was to adapt and validate the Concern with Acting Prejudiced (CAP) scale for a Spanish sample. This measure evaluates concern about appearing prejudiced to others or oneself and the motivation not to deviate from personal egalitarian standards. First, we completed the translation and an item content validity analysis. Then, in Study 1 (N = 198), we conducted an exploratory factor analysis. In Study 2 (N = 383), we conducted a confirmatory analysis of the unifactorial structure of the Spanish version of the scale and examined its validity. In Study 3 (N = 89), we explored the moderating role of participants’ concern with acting prejudiced in the relation between implicit prejudice and explicit prejudice. The results confirmed the unifactorial structure of the scale, its appropriate psychometric properties and its predictive validity. Moreover, we confirmed that the CAP moderated the relation between implicit and explicit prejudice. In participants with a low concern with acting prejudiced, implicit prejudice was positively related with modern prejudice; in participants with a high concern with acting prejudiced, these variables were not related.     

被遗忘权的制度缺失、发展困境与中国构建路径

数据时代面临的个人信息受到侵害、个人隐私泄露、算法歧视等一系列重大问题，应将以保护信息主体权利为目的的被遗忘权确立下来。欧美被遗忘权在隐私与自由之间存在的冲突背后所体现的是被遗忘权对于各国需求的重要性，我国现有法律制度中规定的删除权与欧盟所确立的被遗忘权是不能等同的。现行被遗忘权面临着调整对象的设定缺陷、权利内容的设定偏差、责任主体的设定不足三方面的发展困境。学者热议与实践需求在一定程度上表明我国应当引入被遗忘权，并应从调整对象的优化构建、权利内容的改造构建、责任承担的明确构建搭建起中国的路径选择，以解决网络信息社会的发展带给我们的新挑战。     

“赞米亚”视角下的近代西南地区基督教的传播与国家适应

詹姆斯?斯科特（James C. Scott）认为，基督教在赞米亚地区广泛传播的主要原因是与山地族群的先知主义和千禧年宇宙观契合，从而使基督教成为山地族群借用的意识形态与谷地国家对抗，逃避谷地的统治。然而民国时期，中国西南山地民族皈信基督教的例子则显示，基督教为这些民族带来符合现代社会秩序的价值理念和行为规范，促使山地民族进入现代性的社会化道路，这恰恰符合了国民政府对于山地民族长期以来的教化愿望，期望将山地民族真正纳入国家的治理体系之下。因而基督教进入“赞米亚”区域，虽然也有逃避统治与国家相对抗的一面，同样也有与国家意识形态相一致的一面，促使山地民族适应国家并进入国家。这可能是斯科特所忽略的一个重要方面。     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

The relations between maternal mental state talk and preschoolers’ behavioral adaptation and school readiness: moderation by emotion situation knowledge

This study investigated the extent to which associations between mothers' elaborated talk about mental states and preschoolers’ behavioral adaptation (i.e., social competence and internalizing and externalizing behavior) and school readiness were moderated by emotion situation knowledge. Families (N = 120) were mostly middle‐income and White and 70 of the preschoolers (M = 50.65 months, SD = 6.19) were boys. Results revealed a positive association between elaborated maternal mental state talk and social competence, but only for children average and high in emotion situation knowledge. For children low in emotion situation knowledge, there was a positive association between elaborated maternal mental state talk and internalizing behavior. There also was a negative relation between elaborated maternal mental state talk and school readiness for preschoolers low in emotion situation knowledge. Findings highlight the importance of considering emotion situation knowledge when examining associations between elaborated maternal mental state talk and young children’s social behavioral adaptation and readiness for school.     

Coastal Adaptation Planning in Fairbourne,Wales: lessons for Climate Change Adaptation

ABSTRACT

Adaptation to climate change is emerging as a central objective and policy frame for coastal communities. This paper examines recent climate change adaptation efforts in the UK, centring on the case of Fairbourne, Wales. The village is facing the long-term prospect of flooding and inundation due to the impacts of sea level rise. The recent Shoreline Management Plan for the area has recommended realignment of the coast and eventual decommissioning of Fairbourne. The paper draws on a qualitative research methodology of interviews, policy review and observation to narrate the case and provide key insights and lessons for planners working in environmentally vulnerable coastal settings and managing climate adaptation processes.     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.