从“以人为本”到政府“公信”--新世纪初政府公信力构建的进路评析

政府公信力是政府凭籍自身信用赢得公众信任的能力，十六大以来，党在施政理念上强调"以人为本"，在执政行为上关注"民生"；在绩效上彰显公平正义，施政方略渗透着人文关怀因素，政府公信力得到了有效提升。但由于腐败现象没有得到有效控制，党风廉政与制度化建设相对滞后，政府公信力也受到了冲击。在新一代领导集体治国理政中，"改革"成为新的常态，防腐败斗争与党风廉政建设取得了伟大成就，政府公信力的重振业已开启。     

当前我国社会信仰危机及重建之路

随着改革开放带来的社会巨大转型,我国社会出现了信仰危机,具体表现为价值迷惘、道德失范、理想幻灭以及封建迷信卷土重来和各类宗教、半宗教的乘虚而入。针对社会信仰危机产生的原因,信仰的重建必须营造良好的社会环境,并在坚持马克思主义信仰主导地位的同时,兼容其他有益的社会信仰,最终促进社会主义和谐社会的建设。     

The Determinants of Trust and Credibility in Environmental Risk Communication: An Empirical Study

This study examines a key component of environmental risk communication; trust and credibility. The study was conducted in two parts. In the first part, six hypotheses regarding the perceptions and determinants of trust and credibility were tested against survey data. The hypotheses were supported by the data. The most important hypothesis was that perceptions of trust and credibility are dependent on three factors: perceptions of knowledge and expertise; perceptions of openness and honesty; and perceptions of concern and care. In the second part, models were constructed with perceptions of trust and credibility as the dependent variable. The goal was to examine the data for findings with direct policy implications. One such finding was that defying a negative stereotype is key to improving perceptions of trust and credibility.     

基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型

B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium.     

How to Evaluate Government Performance while Building a Rule of Law Government in China*

Building a law-based government is a central element of the comprehensive framework for promoting the rule of law in China, while using evaluation to catalyze growth is in line with the incentive principle of management studies. Since China started to implement reform and opening up over thirty years ago, rule of law development and organizational evaluation have gone through several stages, each with different characteristics. Efforts to build a law-based government have met with success, but what the country now has is essentially still goal-oriented assessment. At present, this suffers from the lack of a clear goal orientation or definition of functions, an imperfect technical system and unsound motivation mechanisms, not to mention the practical problems of each government department going its own way, duplicating evaluations or being left rudderless. Drawing on a combination of value rationality and instrumental rationality and using government performance evaluation to promote the building of a law-based government not only conforms to the spirit of the rule of law and value rationality in government performance, but also strengthens the role of evaluation as an instrument for organizational management. Therefore, we need to create new evaluation theories, expand public participation, introducing diversified evaluating entities, improve technical systems, strengthen institutional buildup, and foster a performance-based culture. In addition, replacing goal-oriented assessment with performance evaluation will help the emergence of a new discipline—the performance evaluation of rule of law government, thus promoting multidisciplinary efforts to integrate and create new public administration theories in China.     

网络购物中的社会诚信问题研究——基于不完美信息动态博弈理论

将一次网络交易抽象为不完美信息动态博弈模型，通过对买卖双方博弈行为的分析，得出网络交易纠纷频发的原因。并通过对模型进一步扩展，分析当前网络交易规则存在的缺陷，针对其中的问题，提出提高市场效率的建议。     

Human rights through the paradigm changes of the social communication theories

Human rights (HR), from the perspective of interest and thematic selection, are recognized in the topics of the communication. In general, there is considered to be a positive relationship between the media and its function of mediation with citizenship in reference to the declared general principles since inception in 1948. With this approach, the paper deals with providing an updated reflection of that connection and its main difficulties, such as the crisis of credibility in the information in the context of the European Union and within the framework of the paradigm changes that has derived in the knowledge society of the so-called third environment. The precepts of those recognized as generations of HR survive in the informational stories, of which, due to their current relevance in recent decades, those related to migratory movements, inequality, and poverty stands out. Moreover, the paper explores and discusses how a new generation derived from the implementation and intervention of technology gets involved as an essential characteristic in the relations between the members of society.     

农民工制度化维权意愿的多维度分析

基于对武汉市农民工的调查数据,考察了农民工制度化维权意愿的基本状况,并从社会网络、政治信任和企业制度三个维度分析了其影响因素。研究发现：农民工具有较强的制度化维权意愿。其中,老乡会、政制信任度和企业的侵权状况对农民工的制度化维权意愿有显著影响,而工会、对政府的信任度和企业的社会保障水平等变量影响不显著。个体特征方面,受教育程度、婚姻状况、政治面貌和在岗职位成为影响农民工制度化维权意愿的重要因素。     

基于可信性理论的Mean-CVaR投资组合优化

选取CVaR作为风险度量指标,在可信性理论的基础上构建Mean-CVaR投资组合模型,采用Markov过程预测作为模糊变量的预期投资收益率,并设计基于模糊模拟和遗传算法的混合智能算法以求解;选取上证50成份股2013—2014年的日度历史交易数据,将该模型应用到中国证券市场,结果发现该投资组合模型与中国证券市场的环境具有一定的适应性,能够为投资者的投资决策提供依据。     

基于可信性理论下的EPQ问题的期望值模型

基于可信性理论,本文给出了不允许缺货的经济生产量(EPQ)问题的期望值模型;研究了当单位生产准备费、单位储存费均为模糊变量且相互独立的情况下EPQ 问题的最佳期望单位存储费用、最佳期望单位生产批量及最佳期望生产周期,并得出了一些重要的结论;特殊情况下,讨论了当模型中的模糊参数分别为三角模糊变量、梯形模糊变量及正态模糊变量情况下的EPQ 问题的最优存储策略;最后,针对上述三种情况本文分别给出了一些数值例子验证了模型的有效性和合理性;本文所得到的结果为求解EPQ 问题设计算法提供了理论依据.