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1.
Legal judgments require one to make sense of a complex set of typically contradicting pieces of information that can easily be interpreted in a biased manner. This systematic judgment bias can be caused by biased information search (i.e., confirmatory search) as well as biased information processing (i.e., coherence effects) in which the interpretation of information is changed to fit the emerging favored option. In four studies, we investigate the complex interplay between both kinds of influences. Participants completed three legal cases in which they could freely search for information. We manipulated between subjects whether systematic search was possible or not and measured the assessment of each selected piece of information. In line with previous studies, we observe strong coherence effects in each study, in that the evidence interpretation strongly depended on the current tendency towards acquittal or conviction. In contrast to our expectation, however, people searched for information that was contrary to their current belief in the given case (i.e., disconfirmatory information search). We also observed a trend towards an interaction between both factors, in that coherence effects were slightly stronger for neutral and pro-guilty evidence when systematic information search was possible. Our results underline an unconscious striving for coherence when making complex judgments that is not easily corrected.  相似文献   
2.
We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.  相似文献   
3.
Open innovation and absorptive capacity are two concepts based on the idea that companies can leverage the knowledge generated externally to improve their innovation performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the joint effect of open innovation and absorptive capacity on a firm's radical innovation. Open innovation is expressed in terms of external search breadth and depth strategies and absorptive capacity is described by distinguishing between potential and realized absorptive capacity. In order to test our hypotheses, we carried out empirical research in firms operating in high-technology industries. The results indicate that internal routines and processes for absorbing external knowledge help explain radical innovation as they show a significant effect of potential and realized absorptive capacity. Also, there is a moderating effect of absorptive capacity on open innovation. Specifically, potential absorptive capacity exerts a positive effect on the relationship between external search breadth and depth and radical innovation. Realized absorptive capacity moderates the influence of external search breadth. These findings confirm the complementary nature of absorptive capacity and open innovation search strategies on radical innovation.  相似文献   
4.
ABSTRACT

Reduced income upon retirement is a vulnerability threat, which increases dependency on public provisions, familial, and/or social (community) support. Many German retirees, in addition to lifestyle motivations, move to low-cost destinations in order to maintain an autonomous and independent life while minimizing the risks of financial worsening. In this article, I discuss the vulnerability patterns of German retirees in the Mediterranean coastal town of Alanya, Turkey, and the role of social networks, with a particular focus on intergenerational family relations. I argue that, despite increased life satisfaction, relocation to a new destination abroad results in new emerging threats. German retirees in Alanya experience difficulties in terms of a lack of intergenerational family support and the double jeopardy of being framed by the legal regulations of two nation states. Based on the findings of the empirical research conducted in Alanya in 2017, I will demonstrate new threats emerged after relocation and how retirees respond to those with new coping strategies.  相似文献   
5.
苏欣  李福泉 《国际论坛》2020,(1):142-155,160
跨界俾路支族群是伴随欧洲的殖民扩张和势力范围的强行划分逐步出现的,并随着真正意义上具有独立主权的巴基斯坦、伊朗、阿富汗等民族国家的建立而正式固定化。对俾路支族群自身而言,作为各国内部的少数群体,都面临政治参与度低、经济贫瘠、文化落后等一系列族群发展的本质性问题。从民族国家层面来看,俾路支族群分离主义主导下俾路支人跨界联合,将促生一个潜在区域性国际关系行为体的形成,这对民族国家的政治版图构成极大的威胁与挑战。就地区安全形势而言,俾路支叛乱组织发动的恐怖主义活动日益猖狂,对中巴经济走廊的建设带来消极影响。从全球性问题的角度看,跨界俾路支人聚居区已成为毒品贩运和难民非法偷渡的天然门户,这不仅严重影响着国际社会的安全,也引发了严峻的国际人道主义危机。正确区分俾路支民众的合理诉求与叛乱分子的分离主义动机,高度重视俾路支部落首领的作用,切实构建一个容纳俾路支人的命运共同体,是跨界俾路支族群问题治理的最佳路径。  相似文献   
6.
Since the introduction of the search design by Srivastava [Designs for searching non-negligible effects. In: Srivastava, editor. A survey of statistical design and linear models. Amsterdam: North-Holland, Elsevier; 1975. p. 507–519], construction of such designs has been considered by many researchers. The efficient performances of constructed search designs in terms of parameter estimation and search ability of parameters have also been investigated by several authors. They have proposed suitable optimality measures such as DD- and AD-optimality for estimation in the early stage of search design construction. Moreover, since 1990s, some criteria have been developed to evaluate search performance of a design. Although these criteria are useful none of them is able to evaluate both estimation and search efficiency of a design simultaneously. In this paper, we propose dual-task criteria to deal with searching and estimating performances of search designs. These compound criteria are weighted multiplication of estimation and search suitable criteria. They will be used for design comparison and the results will be presented.  相似文献   
7.
《Long Range Planning》2019,52(5):101825
Research on problemistic search has assumed negative attainment discrepancy to be the trigger of both local and distant search. Extending this research, we present and compare two additional triggers: (1) relative attainment discrepancy, which reflects how much a firm's attainment discrepancy deviates from its past negative attainment discrepancies; and (2) persistent attainment discrepancy, which reflects how often the firm experiences below-aspirations performance. Our triggers for distant search model a behavioral explanation for the timing and relatedness of acquisitions. We find support for baseline arguments of problemistic search whereby firms increase both industry- and skill-related acquisitions when they perform below aspirations. When they persistently perform below aspirations, however, this likelihood is reduced and firms engage in acquisitions that are more unrelated, thereby providing support for the notion of expanding search boundaries from local to distant search. Of the two triggers of distant search proposed, relative attainment discrepancy does not induce firms to expand search boundaries. Our results indicate that persistent attainment discrepancy is a key construct to consider when studying the expansion of search boundaries.  相似文献   
8.
信息化进程的纵深发展对翻译行业产生了深刻的影响,译者如何从海量信息中高效获取信息关系到其翻译服务的质量。因此,译者的信息素养和搜索能力显得愈发重要。通过探讨搜索引擎的补充和延伸——知识搜索引擎,着重论述知识搜索引擎相对于传统搜索引擎,在主题分类、一站式知识检索、互动式知识问答、个性化知识库等方面具备的突出优势,并对比国内三大知识搜索引擎,论述其在翻译实践中的重要启示。  相似文献   
9.
在“互联网+”和“一带一路”背景下,跨境电商与制造业集群不仅要成就自身发展,更要实现协同发展。通过对产业集群及升级、跨境电商和协同演化等现有理论研究进行梳理总结,深度剖析我国跨境电商和制造业集群发展现状,论证两者协同发展的必要性,并有针对性地提出推进我国跨境电商与制造业集群协同发展的对策建议:着力加大政府部门扶持保障能力;增强电商与制造业企业的创新能力;壮大港航物流支付主体支撑能力。  相似文献   
10.
In this article, to reduce computational load in performing Bayesian variable selection, we used a variant of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and the Holmes and Held (HH) algorithm, to sample model index variables in logistic mixed models involving a large number of explanatory variables. Furthermore, we proposed a simple proposal distribution for model index variables, and used a simulation study and real example to compare the performance of the HH algorithm with our proposed and existing proposal distributions. The results show that the HH algorithm with our proposed proposal distribution is a computationally efficient and reliable selection method.  相似文献   
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