Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Fiddling while the planet burns? COP25 in perspective

ABSTRACT

With fires, storms, social protests, and climate strikes sweeping the world, 2019 should have been a tipping point in how the world responds to global heating. This was the backdrop to the COP25 climate change summit which took place in Madrid in December 2019. This paper assesses the outcomes of the meeting and the path towards the critically important meeting in Glasgow at the end of 2020. It analyses and explains the key points of contention over levels of ambition, the rules which should govern global carbon markets and sensitive issues such as loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change. The analysis is situated within a broader geopolitical and economic context of right-wing populism, deepening forms of marketization and financialization of responses to climate change and against a background of a world increasingly feeling the effects of the climate crisis.     

一个“成功"游牧民定居工程背后的资源困境

游牧民定居工程被视为改变牧区靠天养牧、加速牧区现代化和城镇化的重要举措而广泛实施。 游牧民定居工程迅速且深刻地改变着草原牧区的自然、社会及经济形态,同时也改变了人与自然资源之间的互动关系及作用时空尺度。 在“成功冶的定居点,牧民生活水平大幅提高,且对天然草场的利用减少;但是,对比相邻的村庄发现,其“成功冶的关键在于有足够的外部资源输入,包括草场、农田和地下水等。 而从区域的生态环境来看,这种“成功冶模式并不符合当地干旱地区的生态特征,有可能造成更大范围内的生态破坏。 因此,游牧民定居工程应该从区域生态特征出发,对类似“成功冶模板的推广更加谨慎。     

粘土矿物产状和微结构对地层损害的影响

对120块岩样XRD、SEM分析结果表明,下二门油田纵向粘土矿物演化规律明显,浅、上层系以蒙皂石—高岭石组合为主,中、下层系为绿泥石—高岭石—伊/蒙间层组合,深层系为绿泥石—伊利石组合。发育七种粘土微结构类型,地层微粒的稳定性由占主导地位的微结构类型决定。微结构稳定性序列为层流状>绒球状>畴状>叠片支架状>絮团状>蜂窝状>支架状。预测碱敏、水敏、盐敏和出砂是最严重的地层损害方式。     

论生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之衔接

在现行司法实践中,我国对生态环境损害之救济采取的是生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼并行的"双轨制"模式.通过分析典型案件可以发现,现行立法未能为化解生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之间的制度"碰撞"提供明确的规范指南,导致"两诉"之间时常会陷入管辖冲突与衔接困境.生态环境损害赔偿诉讼的模糊属性以及相关立法规定的缺失,是导致"两诉"衔接陷入困境之根由.为此,应当在准确识别生态环境损害赔偿诉讼性质之前提下,通过立法对"两诉"之间的顺位规则、索赔主体机制等核心规范予以明确.具体而言,未来我国应当明确生态环境损害赔偿诉讼优于环境公益诉讼的顺位规则,并建立"行政机关—环保组织—检察机关"三位一体且逐层递进的索赔主体结构,最大程度发挥"两诉"之制度合力.     

论大规模侵权损害救济模式的构建

近些年,我国大规模侵权事件频发,研究大规模侵权理论,特别是大规模侵权损害救济模式,对建设和谐社会具有重要借鉴意义。大规模侵权损害的救济具有一定的社会现实基础,在此基础上可以构建大规模侵权损害救济模式,即以政府服务为主导,综合运用以侵权人赔偿为基础、责任保险为主力、救济基金为保障的多位一体救济模式,用多元化的思维和举措保障受害人获得救济,从而助力和谐社会建设。     

斜拉桥主梁损伤对车激索力响应的影响研究

以斜拉桥的损伤识别为目的,提出了一种索力比指标,研究了斜拉桥在车辆荷载激励下,主梁发生损伤时斜拉索索力比指标的变化规律。以实验室独塔斜拉桥试验模型为研究对象,基于ANSYS建立其空间板壳有限元模型,以单元刚度的折减模拟主梁损伤,对主梁在不同位置损伤、不同程度损伤两类工况下,车辆荷载激励下斜拉索的索力比指标变化进行了数值仿真。结果表明：车辆荷载激励下,斜拉索的索力比指标与主梁的损伤位置和损伤程度存在一定的对应关系。为后续基于车辆荷载激励下的索力响应指标识别斜拉桥损伤方法的研究提供了重要的参考,具有一定的理论意义。     

城镇化进程中被征地农民的权益损害与征地纠纷——基于全国31省被征地农户的调查

随着我国城镇化进程进入加速发展期,农民权益受损、征地纠纷日益突出。合理测算农民权益受损的程度、征地纠纷的影响因素,对我国土地征用制度改革具有重要意义。根据全国31省(区、市)91村638户被征地农户的调查数据,借助多元线性回归,分析征地纠纷的影响因素,研究结果表明:征地过程中农民的知情权、参与权、处置权、收益权和社会保障权受损严重;农民个体特征和农户家庭特征对征地纠纷没有显著影响,农民权益是征地纠纷全面而充分的影响因素。因此,在构建被征地农民权益保障体系和改革征地制度时,要从影响征地纠纷的农民权益因素着手,尊重农民的意愿,保障农民的权利,尽可能减少纠纷现象的发生。     

论职业病病人的人身损害补偿与赔偿请求权--以《职业病防治法》第58、59条规定为中心

职业病病人的人身损害通常具有缓发性、不可逆等特质。《职业病防治法》第58、59条分别规定了工伤保险待遇给付请求权和人身损害赔偿请求权。工伤保险待遇在本质上属于人身损害补偿，如要实现损害之全部填补，职业病病人可以选择从契约关系、侵权行为、保险契约、法律之特别规定等视角，以仲裁或诉讼方式请求用人单位予以人身损害赔偿。     

论《侵权责任法》规定的医疗产品损害责任

《侵权责任法》规定的医疗产品损害责任，从性质上来说，既是医疗损害责任的一个特殊类型，也属于产品责任的范畴，适用无过错责任原则。其中第59条规制的适用范围包括有缺陷的药品、消毒药剂和医疗器械以及不合格的血液，但此适用范围应予以界定。在此界定内，导致患者损害的医疗机构、生产者所承担的赔偿责任才是《侵权责任法》第59条规定的医疗产品损害责任。