Properties of the weighted log‐rank test in the design of confirmatory studies with delayed effects

Proportional hazards are a common assumption when designing confirmatory clinical trials in oncology. This assumption not only affects the analysis part but also the sample size calculation. The presence of delayed effects causes a change in the hazard ratio while the trial is ongoing since at the beginning we do not observe any difference between treatment arms, and after some unknown time point, the differences between treatment arms will start to appear. Hence, the proportional hazards assumption no longer holds, and both sample size calculation and analysis methods to be used should be reconsidered. The weighted log‐rank test allows a weighting for early, middle, and late differences through the Fleming and Harrington class of weights and is proven to be more efficient when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. The Fleming and Harrington class of weights, along with the estimated delay, can be incorporated into the sample size calculation in order to maintain the desired power once the treatment arm differences start to appear. In this article, we explore the impact of delayed effects in group sequential and adaptive group sequential designs and make an empirical evaluation in terms of power and type‐I error rate of the of the weighted log‐rank test in a simulated scenario with fixed values of the Fleming and Harrington class of weights. We also give some practical recommendations regarding which methodology should be used in the presence of delayed effects depending on certain characteristics of the trial.     

Replication: Framing effects in intertemporal choice with children

This paper investigates the effects of framing in intertemporal choice by elementary school children. Sutter, Yilmaz, and Oberauer (2015) recently demonstrated that intertemporal choice in children is malleable with respect to simple defaults. Using a similar approach, we replicated their study. We also found that children are more willing to select the immediate option in (standard) control frames than in alternative ones that appear to promote delay of gratification. This finding is consistent with previous experiments on children as well as adults and may have implications for cultivating the ability to delay gratification in individuals.     

Correlation properties of continuous-time autoregressive processes delayed by the inverse of the stable subordinator

Abstract

We define the delayed Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive process via the inverse of the stable subordinator. We derive correlation structure for the observed non-stationary delayed Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order p, emphasizing low orders, and we show they exhibit long-range dependence property. Distributional properties are discussed as well.     

Dividend barrier and ruin problems for a risk model with delayed claims

In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model in the presence of a constant dividend barrier is considered. Two types of individual claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined, where every by-claim is induced by the main claim and and the time of delay for the claim is assumed to be random. A system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the expected discounted penalty function is derived. We show that its solution can be expressed as the solution to the expected discounted penalty function in the same risk model with the absence of a barrier plus a linear combination of two linearly independent solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Using systems of integro-differential equations for the moment-generating function as well as for the arbitrary moments of the sum of discounted dividend payments until ruin, a matrix version of the dividends–penalty type relationship is derived. We also prove that ruin is certain under constant dividend barrier strategy. The closed form expressions are given when the claim amounts from both classes are exponentially distributed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the solution procedure.     

Fertility patterns of college graduates by field of study,US women born 1960–79

Building on recent European studies, we used the Survey of Income and Program Participation to provide the first analysis of fertility differences between groups of US college graduates by their undergraduate field of study. We used multilevel event-history models to investigate possible institutional and selection mechanisms linking field of study to delayed fertility and childlessness. The results are consistent with those found for Europe in showing an overall difference of 10 percentage points between levels of childlessness across fields, with the lowest levels occurring for women in health and education, intermediate levels for women in science and technology, and the highest levels for women in arts and social sciences. The mediating roles of the following field characteristics were assessed: motherhood employment penalties; percentage of men; family attitudes; and marriage patterns. Childlessness was higher among women in fields with a moderate representation of men, less traditional family attitudes, and late age at first marriage.     

需求信息滞后下的零售商决策与牛鞭效应分析

牛鞭效应是一种在企业经营中广泛存在的普遍现象,对企业的生产经营产生了极大的负面影响。本文考虑一个供应商和一个零售商组成的简单两级供应链系统。在这个系统中,首先建立在需求信息滞后情况下的零售商库存决策和混合决策(库存决策和定价决策)模型;然后进行决策对牛鞭效应的影响分析。结果显示:在需求信息存在滞后的情况下,零售商最优决策的定价和订货点的期望值是确定的,与需求信息滞后期的长度无关;零售商的库存决策能产生牛鞭效应,且牛鞭效应会随需求滞后期增加而逐渐减少;零售商的混合决策能否产生牛鞭效应,取决于需求自相关系数的变化,而与需求滞后期无关,但随着需求滞后期会改变期变化程度。此外,库存决策还是混合决策,在需求不具有滞后时较具有滞后时牛鞭效应表现得较为为减弱;零售商的混合决策与库存决策相比,只有在需求的自相关系数取较小值时,才表现得更为强烈,否则会减弱。因而对于零售商而言,适当的需求信息滞后以及供应商对零售商的定价柔性能减少牛鞭效应。     

试论宋庆龄的婚恋观

宋庆龄的婚恋观主要包括:两情相悦是幸福婚姻的前提和基础,志同道合是幸福婚姻的灵魂,自由平等是幸福婚姻历久弥新的重要保障,奉献牺牲是幸福婚姻的真谛。     

额叶迟发性外伤性脑内血肿的诊疗体会

目的:分析动态头颅CT检查对额叶迟发性外伤性脑内血肿的诊断、治疗及预后的影响。方法:对36例额叶脑挫裂伤患者行动态头颅CT检查,尽早发现额叶迟发性外伤性脑内血肿、掌握开颅手术时机,并对预后情况进行总结分析。结果:36例中按GOS评分,良好16例,占44.44%;中残7例,占19.44%;重残3例,占8.33%;植物生存2例,占5.56%;死亡8例,占22.22%。结论:动态头颅CT检查,对额叶迟发性外伤性脑内血肿的早期诊断,早期采取有效的治疗措施,获得良好预后,提供了可靠依据。     

具有非线性时滞的双曲型微分方程解振动的充分条件

给出具有非线性时滞的双曲型微分方程定解问题２ｕｔ２＝ａ（ｔ）Δｕ＋ｓｉ＝１ａｉ（ｔ）Δｕ（ｘ，ｔ－ρｉ（ｔ））－ｆ（ｘ，ｔ，ｕ）－ｋｊ＝１ｇｊ（ｘ，ｔ，ｕ（ｘ，ｔ－σｊ）），ｕ＝０，（ｘ，ｔ）∈Ω×〔０，∞），其中（ｘ，ｔ）∈Ω×（０，∞）的解振动的几个充分条件．     

The Management of Risk: Application to the Welding Industry

The management of health risk in the welding industry is considered based on a discussion of the major sources of harm to welders arising from their employment (e.g., accidents and inhalation of fumes and gases). It is shown that present methods neither enable the assessment of the societal and human costs involved, nor permit the specific association of delayed health effects to occupational fume exposures. Reported accidents usually occur early in the working experience and contribute to a large number of working days lost, while fume exposures may contribute to a reduction in life quality which is poorly defined. It is concluded that risk management can only be attempted after much more information is made available concerning the origin, nature, and duration of health effects, especially as related to individual welding technologies and applications.