随机需求环境下联产品系统价格与产量决策研究

基于固定比例生产技术和多产品随机需求的情形,研究了联产品制造商的两阶段产量和价格联合优化模型。通过反向倒推的优化求解,得到了联产品制造商的最优产量和价格决策以及变化规律。同时研究了需求服从均匀分布时,需求波动对均衡的影响。研究结果表明,在订货成本较低和一种产品的需求波动性较大时,当另外一种产品的波动增大,则该产品的最优订货量增大,同时价格下降。借助数值仿真,分析了价格敏感度和产出比例对最优决策和利润的影响。结果表明,在给定一种产品的价格敏感度时,另外一种的价格敏感度越大,那么该产品的价格就越低,制造商的订货量就下降。当一种产品的产出比例固定时,另一种产品的产出比例上升时,则该产品的价格下降,制造商的订货量下降,总利润上升。     

融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法研究

挖掘特定产品的需求模式无法从整体掌握该类产品的市场特征；短生命周期体验品因缺乏历史销售数据，并且销售总量波动性极大，尤其需要从整体掌握销售总量与产品属性间关系的需求特征规律，但又难以挖掘，亟待提出适用于该类产品的需求特征模式挖掘方法。基于按销售总量分区后各区的需求特征的规律性，提出了一种按销售总量分区、以已有产品介绍集和销售总量为源信息、适用于新产品开发前使用、融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法。该方法包括基于内容分析法的产品属性挖掘方法和基于关联分析的产品属性关系模式挖掘方法。前者可以得到较全面的产品属性；后者能够构建不同销售总量区间内产品集的属性关系模式，得到各区间的产品属性关系网，获得高销售总量区间具备，但中、低区间不具备的属性关系模式，从而获得需求特征模式。通过不断更新产品介绍集和销售总量并迭代挖掘，该方法能够动态挖掘需求特征模式。最后利用2013至2016年国产犯罪和爱情类电影数据验证了该方法的可行性，并得到了这两类电影的产品属性及近年的需求特征模式，可用于指导这两类电影的创作。     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

信息技术与高中数学课程整合探究

信息技术与数学课程整合已成为必然趋势,各种教学辅助软件的出现使教师应接不暇。数学软件Maple凭借其简单的操作和强大的功能等优势被越来越多的数学教师作为辅助教学软件。本文用数学实验的方法介绍了Maple在高中数学教学中的几个应用实例,并对信息技术与课程整合与传统教学法之间的优缺点进行了比较。     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统，建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策，分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少，风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润，零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少，零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

State work and the testing concours of citizenship

Anyone trying to be a citizen has to pass through a set of practices trying to be a state. This paper investigates some of the ways testing practices calibrate citizens, and in doing so, perform “the state.” The paper focuses on three forms of citizenship testing, which it considers exemplary forms of “state work,” and which all, in various ways, concern “migration.” First, the constitution of a “border crossing,” which requires an identity test configured by deceptibility. Second, the Dutch asylum process, in which “being gay” can, in certain cases, be reason for being granted asylum, but where “being gay” is also the outcome of an examination organized by suspicion. And third, the Dutch measurement of immigrants’ “integration,” which is comprised of a testing process in which such factishes as “being a member of society” and “being modern” surface. Citizenship is analyzed in this paper as accrued and (re)configured along a migration trajectory that takes shape as a testing concours, meaning that subjects become citizens along a trajectory of testing practices. In contributing both to work on states and citizenship, and to work on testing, this paper thus puts forward the concept of citizenship testing as state work, where “state work is the term for that kind of labor that most knows itself as comparison, equivalency, and exchange in the social realm” (Harney, 2002, pp. 10–11). Throughout the testing practices discussed here, comparison, equivalency, and exchange figure prominently as the practical achievements of crafting states and citizens.     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

虚拟空间交织的取向原则

虚拟空间交织是人们常用的思维与认知方式之一。本文通过对交织及其原则的介绍,描述了虚拟空间交织的运作,指出虚拟空间交织构建中主观取向的原则应为最佳关联。     

重庆市都市区人中就业现状及变化趋势

都市区作为重庆经济的核心区域,随着经济的快速发展以及城市化进程的加快,正对人口产生巨大的聚集效应,而人口就业将成为一个十分突出的问题。因此,准确把握劳动力供求变动趋势十分重要。为此通过模型运算,对2000-2020年的都市区劳动年龄人口和劳动力的供求变动趋势进行了预测分析。     

供应链与海尔的战略调整

供应链是现代工商业的一种新的业态形式 ,它通过有效的客户和市场管理、对客户需求的准确预测和迅速反应以及最大程度地降低从原材料到生产、再到销售整个过程的库存和运转费用 ,为终端顾客提供最大的让渡价值 ,提高供应链成员整体的竞争力。海尔集团以超前性的战略眼光对公司的组织管理结构和经营方式进行了战略性的调整 ,为推行供应链管理和经营创造了条件。