Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.     

Radical alternative conceptualizations of the classical welfare state? Contrasting the United Kingdom and the Netherlands with Norway

In many countries, new, broad, and normative “conceptions of society” gained prominence that represent fundamentally different discursive alternatives to the classical welfare state. We present two political projects that contain radical alternative conceptualizations of the classical welfare state, the “Big Society” in Britain and the “Participation Society” in the Netherlands, and contrast these with Norwegian developments, where no such a radical alternative conceptualization of the welfare state can be found. We show that the British and Dutch political projects were attempts to replace the welfare state, whereas there is no comparable big idea about a radical overhaul of the welfare state in Norway. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of a fundamental shift in welfare state reform, namely a radical reconsidering of the ideational and normative foundation that defines and underpins what the welfare state is or should be.     

论宪法中的行政诉权

中国宪法第41条中的“控告权”不等同于、但包含了“行政诉权”的内涵。宪法中的行政诉权具有两种属性:一是作为公权利的“监督权”，二是作为私权利的侵权后的“救济权”。前者是政治性权利，也是实体性权利，后者是非政治性权利，是典型的程序性权利。这意味着人们长期把行政诉权仅仅作为一种救济权或程序性权利有失偏颇。为了规范行政诉权行使的秩序，行政诉讼法对宪法中的行政诉权在内容上进行了缩限，并在权利的外在形式上体现出程序性特征，但这不意味着行政诉讼法中的行政诉权所继受的权力属性有所改变。     

Developing a multi-level organization-public dialogic communication framework to assess social media-mediated disaster communication and engagement outcomes

Dialogic communication has long been viewed as vital for effective organization-public relations. Yet, it is under-theorized whether and how organizations’ disaster communication messages may embody dialogic communication principles, and how various dialogic features are associated with different public engagement outcomes on social media. Extending the Organization-Public Dialogic Communication (OPDC) framework to the context of social media-mediated disaster communication, we propose a multi-level framework to assess the dialogic capacity of Facebook messages sent by disaster management organizations during a natural disaster. Three levels of dialogic communication characteristics (i.e., message structure-level, topic-level, and linguistic level) are examined using content analysis and Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). Results identified media richness, correcting, and confirming topics as three consistent predictors of public engagement of all types. Meanwhile, there exhibit greater variations regarding how other topical features and linguistic characteristics are related to public’s cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement during a disaster.     

Disaster Relief as Social Action: A Weberian Look at Postdisaster Donation Behavior

Disaster relief involves a broad range of participants, which often results in a disjunction between actual disaster needs and the perception of appropriate strategies in relief provision. This research examines data collected through interviews with donation drive operators responding to Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and the May 2013 Oklahoma tornadoes. Using Weber's ideal types of social action to understand motivations for engaging in disaster relief, this article argues that motivations for participating in and organizing such drives influence donation strategies, and these motivations can be used to explain persistent donation of nonuseful materiel items. Findings indicate several different motivations for involvement and that donation type appeared linked to motivation. We suggest that motivation for engaging in social action is a valuable approach to better understanding donation behavior and, consequently, addressing the social problem of materiel convergence in the postdisaster environment.     

Aesthetics of disaster as decolonial aesthetics: making sense of the effects of Hurricane María through Puerto Rican contemporary art

ABSTRACT

On 20 September 2017, Hurricane María made landfall on Puerto Rico causing unprecedented disaster. From that day onwards, the Puerto Rican multi-layered colonial, social and political context was further complicated by the traumatic acceleration of a human disaster via this natural disaster. This crystalized the urgency of using art as vehicle for (social) catharsis, a practice that continues to be used by individual artists, collectives, community organizations, art projects, and other art institutions on the island and abroad, through mural art, community paintings, art exhibitions, literature, music, and many other aesthetic expressions. This article examines, from a decolonial and critical cultural studies perspective, post-Hurricane María artistic expressions in contemporary art as decolonial aesthetics through the cathartic use of the frame of an aesthetics of disaster. It is argued that, an aesthetics of disaster aims to re-assert an artistic form that is able to accelerate the discursive nullification of a deeply rooted colonial, social and cultural problem by way of art as catharsis inspired by the way that Hurricane María unveiled these problems. The piece briefly contextualizes Puerto Rico, and it examines the idea of Puerto Rican contemporary art as catharsis. Then, it describes how Puerto Rican contemporary art exhibitions and associated aesthetic production are processing urgent post-hurricane issues through three illustrative pieces in exhibitions in PR and abroad in the United States (US). Lastly, decolonial aesthetics is reexamined and re-understood, informed by Édouard Glissant's view expressed in Poetics of Relation which aids to the conclusion that Puerto Rican contemporary art using the frame of an aesthetics of disaster functions as a powerful form of decolonial aesthetics.     

A perfect storm: Challenges encountered by family caregivers of persons with Alzheimer’s disease during natural disasters

ABSTRACT

Since Hurricane Katrina there has been a movement across the U.S. to examine best practice for disaster response within the aging population. However, little is known about the experience of natural disasters from the perspective of family caregivers of persons with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementia (ADRD). In this exploratory, qualitative study, family caregivers (n=27) were interviewed about their experience with the historic 2015 South Carolina flood. By using thematic analysis, themes were identified to better understand what unique challenges caregivers of person with ADRD experienced. While many caregivers stated they had experienced a natural disaster previously, none had ever done so in their current caregiving role. The caregiving role affected their ability to prepare for the storm and influenced their decision-making regarding evacuation and utilization of recovery resources. Thus, caregivers were confronted by a “perfect storm” of circumstances and uncertainty. Family caregivers need to have actionable emergency plans for disasters that are specific to their role as caregivers of persons with ADRD. Study implications also suggest the role social work professionals can have in educating, advocating, evaluating, and coordinating support to assist caregivers of persons with ADRD as a potentially vulnerable and at-risk population during all phases of disaster.     

Bi-objective multi-resource scheduling problem for emergency relief operations

Abstract

Resource scheduling for emergency relief operations is complex as it has many constraints. However, an effective allocation and sequencing of resources are crucial for the minimization of the completion times in emergency relief operations. Despite the importance of such decisions, only a few mathematical models of emergency relief operations have been studied. This article presents a bi-objective mixed integer programming (MIP) that helps to minimize both the total weighted time of completion of the demand points and the makespan of the total emergency relief operation. A two-phase method is developed to solve the bi-objective MIP problem. Additionally, a case study of hospital network in the Melbourne metropolitan area is used to evaluate the model. The results indicate that the model can successfully support the decisions required in the optimal resource scheduling of emergency relief operations.