On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Accurate computation of single and product moments of order statistics under progressive censoring

An accurate procedure is proposed to calculate approximate moments of progressive order statistics in the context of statistical inference for lifetime models. The study analyses the performance of power series expansion to approximate the moments for location and scale distributions with high precision and smaller deviations with respect to the exact values. A comparative analysis between exact and approximate methods is shown using some tables and figures. The different approximations are applied in two situations. First, we consider the problem of computing the large sample variance–covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimators. We also use the approximations to obtain progressively censored sampling plans for log-normal distributed data. These problems illustrate that the presented procedure is highly useful to compute the moments with precision for numerous censoring patterns and, in many cases, is the only valid method because the exact calculation may not be applicable.     

New two-stage sampling designs based on neoteric ranked set sampling

Neoteric ranked set sampling (NRSS) is a recently developed sampling plan, derived from the well-known ranked set sampling (RSS) scheme. It has already been proved that NRSS provides more efficient estimators for population mean and variance compared to RSS and other sampling designs based on ranked sets. In this work, we propose and evaluate the performance of some two-stage sampling designs based on NRSS. Five different sampling schemes are proposed. Through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we verified that all proposed sampling designs outperform RSS, NRSS, and the original double RSS design, producing estimators for the population mean with a lower mean square error. Furthermore, as with NRSS, two-stage NRSS estimators present some bias for asymmetric distributions. We complement the study with a discussion on the relative performance of the proposed estimators. Moreover, an additional simulation based on data of the diameter and height of pine trees is presented.     

Circular economy and the city: an urban political economy agenda

ABSTRACT

The circular economy (CE) has become a matter of urban development. A literature review shows that the CE debate is biased toward technology-driven industrial change, while bracketing broader socio-political interests. We address this gap by exploring the political economy of scale of the CE. Looking into the case of Brussels (Belgium), a city that has recently adopted the CE as part of its socio-economic strategy, we explore how the anticipated transition to a ‘circular city’ chimes with long-standing urban development agendas. While there is little evidence of stable growth coalitions between corporate and political elites, we argue that the CE provides an ‘urban sustainability fix’ by selectively incorporating ecological goals in urban governance strategies. We further scrutinise the landscape of diverse and heterogenous CE practices in food and transport, highlighting how they are regulated and organised, what labour conditions they offer, and how they are anchored in urban space.     

Factor Structure and Reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale with Latino and Caucasian Male Emerging Adults

Abstract

Based on the value of children theory, the purpose of this study was to develop and establish the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale (ACS), a self-report measure of a modification of Hoffman and Hoffman’s value scheme of the psychological needs children meet for their parents. Data were collected from 685 emerging adult men identifying as Latino or Caucasian who were not parents. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis found a good fit for the six hypothesized subscales on the ACS: connectedness, expansion of self, family heritage, adult status and social identity, development of self, and family maintenance. We discuss potential applications of the measure in research and practice.     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

Enabling everything: scale,disability and the film The Theory of Everything

This article looks at the representation of scale in the 2014 film The Theory of Everything, identifying moments that relate to three concerns: firstly, how disabled people experience scale issues at an all too practical level in daily life; secondly, how Hawking’s experience of scale at the level of both body and mind is (a)typical of the way it is experienced by disabled people generally; and, thirdly, how a focus on the film can prompt some rethinking of perspectives both within disability studies and within the conceptualisation of scale more broadly.     

金融投资影响居民主观幸福感的影响研究——基于CFPS数据

随着金融资产在居民家庭资产结构中的地位上升,金融投资活动对居民主观幸福感的影响日趋显著,这种主观幸福感可以用生活满意程度和未来信心程度来刻画。来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的经验证据表明,家庭金融投资规模对居民生活满意程度和未来信心程度都会产生负向影响；家庭金融投资绝对收益对居民生活满意程度存在正向影响,而家庭金融投资相对收益则对居民未来信心程度存在负向影响。这些情形可能源自于金融投资市场在市场机制、公平程度、投资者教育等方面的欠缺,需要管理者采取措施来改变这种幸福感损失。     

高质量发展背景下现代服务业经济增收效应研究——基于重庆市的实证分析

现代服务业的高质量发展在一定程度上决定着当前阶段我国社会主义现代化水平，这是未来一定时期内实现经济发展和产业转型升级的关键引擎。通过择取1996—2017年全国层面的平衡面板数据，基于双重差分法和合成控制法对现代服务业综合政策在重庆市产生的经济增长效应做出合理化评价。实证结果表明：整体而言，现代服务业综合政策对重庆市产生明显经济增收效应。随着时间的推移，这种增收效应具有显著促进作用，但其通过政策红利动力驱动而产生的边际效应却趋于弱化。为解决内生性问题，通过进行一系列安慰剂检验，确保结论的稳健可靠。     

基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集均值-标准差偏好距离的多属性决策研究

在犹豫直觉模糊语言集和语言尺度函数的基础上定义了均值-标准差偏好的Hamming距离，并提出了基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集距离TOPSIS和TODIM的多属性决策方法，进一步利用这两种方法对实例问题建筑商的招标方案进行排序，并讨论了偏好参数对排序结果的灵敏度分析。为验证上述方法的有效性，与已有方法对同一实例的排序结果进行了比较分析。