基于Hawkes过程中美股市大幅波动互激效应的研究

近年来，由于中美经济联系日趋紧密，中美股票市场大幅波动的互激效应明显增强。本文考虑中美股市时差和法定节假日差异等因素，运用标值Hawkes过程对2006-2017年CSI300和S&P500大幅波动收益率数据进行建模，结果表明：（1）中美股市大幅波动互激效应存在不对称性，美股市场大幅波动对中国股市的互激效应更强；（2）中美股市大幅波动的幅度对互激效应不存在显著影响；（3）中美股票市场对于大幅波动互激效应的消化速度存在差异，中国股票市场消化美股大幅波动互激效应的速度较快。本研究对金融市场监管者和投资者均有一定意义。     

When is n large enough? Looking for the right sample size to estimate proportions

The central limit theorem indicates that when the sample size goes to infinite, the sampling distribution of means tends to follow a normal distribution; it is the basis for the most usual confidence interval and sample size formulas. This study analyzes what sample size is large enough to assume that the distribution of the estimator of a proportion follows a Normal distribution. Also, we propose the use of a correction factor in sample size formulas to ensure a confidence level even when the central limit theorem does not apply for these distributions.     

货币政策溢出效应和国际协调机制研究

基于国际货币政策溢出效应理论，选用2006年11月至2017年7月的月度数据，采用TVP-VAR-SV模型分析美国货币政策变化对中国产出的动态影响，结果表明美国货币政策的变动对中国产出具有显著的溢出效应，该溢出效应在不同滞后期和不同时点上具有较大差异，尤其当美国货币政策发生方向性变动时对中国产出增长的影响非常显著；不同时期美国货币政策的变化对人民币有效汇率和中美贸易差额在影响方向和程度上均存在着较大差异，并且人民币有效汇率和中美贸易差额的变动反过来对中美利差和中国产出增长也存在着时变性影响。     

小学校长服务型领导对教师知识分享行为的影响研究

以山东省248名小学教师为有效样本，探讨了服务型领导、教师同事信任、情感承诺和教师知识分享行为之间的关系。研究结果显示：服务型领导与教师知识分享行为显著相关；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与知识分享行为之间的关系；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与情感承诺之间的关系；情感承诺对服务型领导与知识分享行为关系的中介作用不显著。     

A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

环境规制、政府行为与产业结构升级

传统的政府权衡思路发生转变，环境保护的重要性并不必然劣于对经济增长的追求，聚焦环境规制与产业结构升级的关系，有助于监管当局把握环境政策的经济端反馈效果。采用2004—2015年中国省际面板数据，考虑经济区域异质性和政府行为，细致分析环境规制对产业结构升级的影响，并进一步探讨具体的作用机制。研究发现:环境规制对产业结构升级的影响具有区域特征，东部地区形成了正向促进作用，中部地区为反向抑制作用，西部地区没有影响；地方政府官员晋升压力越大、财政收支压力越小、相对财力越大，环境规制倒逼产业结构升级的效力越大；传导机制方面，佐证了研发创新和对外开放对环境规制优化产业结构的正向传导效应，而FDI流入和投资需求反而具有逆向功效。因此，必须注重政府行为的协调效应，有效把握区域特征，提倡创新和深化改革开放，构建合理的环境规制政策，以实现产业结构优化升级。     

The effect of media sexism on women’s political ambition: evidence from a worldwide study

This paper presents results from one of the first global studies on the relationship between media sexism and the share of candidates for the lower chamber of national parliaments who are women. Data on media sexism come from the Global Media Monitoring Project, the most reliable worldwide source for media coverage from a gender perspective. The data on share of female political candidates come from the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The results show that that there is, even when controlling for the number of women in parliament, electoral system, gender quotas, level of human development, level of women’s rights, freedom from corruption, and media access, a significant relationship between media sexism—measured as (i) the share of all news subjects that are women and (ii) the share of all news subjects portrayed in the function of experts who are women—and the share of women candidates for parliament: the higher the level of media sexism, the lower the share of women candidates. The theory discussed zooms in on a bystander effect: We hypothesize that sexist portrayals of women in the media stifle ambition among women who, in a less sexist media environment, would be willing to stand as political candidates.     

微信公众号影响力指数建构与量化评估

作为被广泛使用的社交媒体，微信已经成为热点事件和网络舆情的重要策源地，科学准确评估微信公众号的影响力对于明晰微信信息传播特点，深入挖掘微信传播潜力，进一步规范和指导微信平台的传播行为具有较大的理论和实践意义。在对既有关于微信公众号影响力研究进行梳理和评价的基础上，基于传播效果测量的设计，坚持以受众为中心、由浅入深多层次考察准则，运用德尔菲法和层次分析法建构一套微信公众号影响力指标体系。该指标体系由4个一级指标和9个二级指标构成，并运用线性合成法合成微信公众号影响力指数。     

局部平稳部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断

部分线性模型是一类非常重要的半参数回归模型,由于它既含有参数部分又含有非参数部分,与常规的线性模型相比具有更强的适应性和解释能力。文章研究带有局部平稳协变量的固定效应部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断。首先提出一个两阶段估计方法得到模型中未知参数和非参数函数的估计,并证明估计量的渐近性质,然后运用不变原理构造出非参数函数的一致置信带,最后通过数值模拟研究和实例分析验证了该方法的有效性。