Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts

Abstract

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient for the ranking by any consistent loss function. This article shows, via analytical results and realistic simulation-based analyses, that the presence of misspecified models, parameter estimation error, or nonnested information sets, leads generally to sensitivity to the choice of (consistent) loss function. Thus, rather than merely specifying the target functional, which narrows the set of relevant loss functions only to the class of loss functions consistent for that functional, forecast consumers or survey designers should specify the single specific loss function that will be used to evaluate forecasts. An application to survey forecasts of U.S. inflation illustrates the results.     

Australian and New Zealand Indigenous mothers’ report respect for smoking bans in homes

BackgroundThere is limited data about the reasons behind residential rules to reduce environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure or the establishment or enforcement of such rules in Indigenous populations.AimWe aimed to gain an understanding of smokefree rules around Australian and New Zealand (NZ) Indigenous infants.MethodThis was a qualitative study nested within a randomised controlled trial that aimed to test the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control programme about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) to improve the respiratory health of Indigenous infants in Australia and New Zealand. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 Indigenous mothers of infants in Australia (n = 7) and NZ (n = 19). We asked about the presence of smokefree rules, who set the rules, how the rules were set and enforced, and presence of smokefree rules in participants’ wider social circle. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and inductively analysed to identify key themes.FindingsSixty-nine percent of mothers had partners, 77% smoked and all reported some presence of smokefree rules for house and car. Three main themes were identified: strategies to minimise exposure to ETS, establishing smokefree rules in homes and cars, and, adherence and enforcement of smokefree rules. Several strategies were identified to limit children's exposure to ETS, including rules to limit exposure to third-hand smoke. Mothers extended their smokefree rules to apply to other people's houses or cars, and reported that their family and social circles also had smokefree rules. The main reason for having smokefree rules was for the health of their children. Rules were most commonly set by the mother, often jointly with their partner. Few mothers reported challenges or problems with other people adhering to the smokefree rules.ConclusionWomen tried very hard to, and believed that they were effective in, protecting their children from the harmful effects of ETS exposure. In this context, health professionals need to emphasise smoking cessation in parents, so that children are maximally protected from ETS exposure.     

盐类物质对泥质烃源岩生排烃过程的影响

根据中国东部下第三系盐湖相沉积存在的地质实际,利用地层孔隙热压生排烃模拟仪开展了仿真地层条件下的含盐和不含盐泥质烃源岩的生排烃模拟实验,通过对烃类产物的分析探讨了盐类物质参与烃源岩生排烃的过程。研究表明：（1）盐类的存在加速了成烃演化,促进了石油和天然气的生成;（2）盐类的存在降低了对有机质的吸附能力,加速了粘土转化和脱水过程,且盐层易解理,使烃源岩中微孔隙及孔缝发育,促进了油气的初次运移;（3）无盐泥质源岩发育区虽然滞留大量的石油资源,但由于其岩石本身难压裂,对于商业化开采页岩油并无太大意义,到达过成熟阶段后,可能是页岩气开采的有利区带。盐岩发育区虽然其整体演化过程中生成的油气易于排出,但在Ro=1.28%时仍然滞留着20% 的石油资源,富含大量的盐类脆性矿物而低含粘土矿物,有利于产生裂缝,易于压裂,是页岩油藏勘探的有利区带。     

生态视域下的森林管理制度变迁及其反思——云南M县案例研究

管理制度变迁对生态演变具有显著的影响。传统时期地方社会有一套有效的森林管理制度。以云南M县为例,通过对森林使用的类型划分,乡规民约和信仰、禁忌,地方传统有效地保护了当地的森林。1949年以来,由于地方社会组织、制度和信仰禁忌的破坏,森林遭受严重砍伐。此后,现代森林管理制度逐步建立。现代森林管理制度在操作中的问题体现在：正式管理制度的低嵌入性、管理人员地方性知识缺乏、管理和执法力量的弱覆盖性和管理机构的利益化取向。因此,需要探索正式制度与非正式制度互补的管理模式。     

中国农业现代化发展水平时空格局及趋同演变

采用熵权TOPSIS法对我国2001—2012年31省份的农业现代化发展水平进行综合评价,进而采用GIS技术对我国农业现代化发展水平进行空间格局分析,并运用Markov链方法对我国农业现代化水平的趋同演变进行了实证研究。研究发现：（1）整体上我国农业现代化水平从东部到中部再到西部梯度降低,且存在显著的空间自相关,发展水平相似的地区呈现集聚分布;（2）农业现代化水平还表现出一定的俱乐部趋同特征,随着时间积累,各俱乐部的趋同迹象有所缓解,但一直都存在着“高水平垄断”现象;（3）空间因素对地区农业现代化的发展具有积极影响,高水平的邻居更能带动本地区农业现代化水平的提高,研究还发现在考察期内这种带动作用需要3年的时间积累才能体现。     

反贪侦查中非法证据排除规则的现实应对

新刑事诉讼法在总结实践经验的基础上进一步规范和完善了我国非法证据排除规则。该规则的确立和应用将对反贪侦查工作带来巨大的影响和挑战,也将对办案人员的素质提出更高的要求。要保障反贪侦查工作依法、持续、健康开展,就必须对非法证据排除规则进行理智辩证的对待、认真细致的研究和积极主动的应对。以章国锡受贿案为透视,提出了在反贪侦查工作中,严格执行收集证据的禁止性规定,全面落实全程同步录音录像制度,提高侦查人员出庭作证的应对能力,建立非法证据排除的预警机制和做好证据的事后补正等应对非法证据排除规则之对策。     

传媒与司法个案矛盾的技术成因与对策

传媒与司法之间的关系理应是和谐一致的,但应然层面的目的一致性不能掩盖二者实然层面的具体矛盾性。究其原因,既有传播主体、受众乃至司法主体因素而导致的个案矛盾,也有因传媒工作与司法活动的技术性差异而导致的冲突,相应地,解决思路应从这些方面入手。     

Agreements About Extra-Dyadic Sex in Gay Men's Relationships: Exploring Differences in Relationship Quality by Agreement Type and Rule-Breaking Behavior

Research comparing the quality of monogamous and non-monogamous (“open”) relationships among gay men has produced mixed findings. In addition, little is known about the consequences of breaking the rules of relationship agreements about extra-dyadic sex. Results from a survey of 229 gay men in romantic relationships showed that open relationships were less passionate, but no less intimate or committed, than monogamous or “threesome-only” relationships. However, men who broke rules reported lower relationship quality overall, regardless of the relationship agreement. Thus, it is less the nature of the agreement itself than adhering to the conditions of it that influences relationship quality.     

论服装设计大赛与高校服装设计教育的关系

近年来,中国各类服装设计大赛迅猛发展,在为服装行业挖掘设计人才的同时,也为中国高校服装设计教育提供了一个良好的行业氛围。本文通过分析服装大赛与高校服装设计教育之间的关系,总结了各类服装设计大赛的规则设置、评判标准及组织形式,并针对大赛参与各方如何共同进入一个良性的发展空间提出了若干建议。