基于MS-AR模型的中国能源消费周期路径演化识别

文章基于改革开放以来的煤炭、石油、天然气、一次电力及其他能源消费增长率年度数据,运用HP滤波和MS-AR模型,透析能源消费周期多阶段的区制属性,刻画我国能源消费增速的时间路径变化特征。结果表明:(1)除一次电力及其他能源消费增长率外,各能源消费增长率均处于窄幅震荡状态,21世纪初呈现明显的下行态势;煤炭、石油增长率波动程度明显强于天然气、一次电力及其他能源消费增长率波动程度。(2)各能源消费增长率存在低速增长区制、中速增长区制、高速增长区制的三区制特征;以煤炭、石油为代表的传统能源消费增长率在低速和高速增长区制间动态跃迁,仅在相关政策、重大改革方针出台后跃入高速增长区制,在中速增长区制具有持续性;天然气消费增长率在低速增长区制具有惰性;21世纪以来,一次电力及其他能源消费增长率维持在高增长区制。(3)区制特征与波动风险具有联动效应,高(低)增长区制具有高(低)波动风险。     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。     

Alcohol consumption among undergraduate social work students at a South African university

ABSTRACT

Alcohol consumption among tertiary level students is a public health problem that can adversely affect students’ performance at university. This study therefore investigated the drinking patterns; reasons for drinking; and the perceived impact of drinking on academic performance of undergraduate social work students at a South African university. Of the 145 students who completed a group administered survey questionnaire, 88% reported using alcohol mainly for social purposes and enjoyment, with two-fifths admitting to participating in binge drinking. Despite these findings, a high proportion (78%) reported not performing poorly on a test or exam due to alcohol consumption in the preceding 12 months. Recommendations are provided for the education and support of social work students as future healthcare professionals.     

Contesting racism: how do the black middle-class use cultural consumption for anti-racism?

ABSTRACT

Drawing on interviews with thirty-two black British professionals, and ethnographic work in middle-class cultural spaces across London, this paper asks ‘How do the black middle-class use cultural consumption for anti-racism?’ I argue that the black middle-class contest the racial hierarchy at three levels through their cultural consumption: the material, the ideological, and the symbolic. At the material level, black middle-class people consume cultural forms they decode as ‘white’ in order to establish an equity with whites in levels of cultural capital. At the ideological level, black middle-class people consume cultural forms that uplift meanings and representations of blackness, thus challenging controlling images of blackness. Lastly, at the symbolic level, black middle-class folks create and sustain cultural spaces where black people’s cultural and symbolic knowledge is given proper recognition and authority.     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

The 2015 welfare reform of the National Basic Livelihood Security System in South Korea: Effects on economic outcomes

In July 2015, South Korea’s National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was reformed for the purposes of eliminating welfare blind spots and reducing poverty. The reform is expected to affect the recipients’ economic behaviours and choices. In this study, we used changes in benefits and eligibility for the NBLSS under the customised benefit system to identify the effects of the change in the NBLSS on a proposed set of economic outcomes – income, labour supply, consumption, savings, poverty reduction. To estimate the effects, we used data from the 10th–12th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study and employed a difference‐in‐differences framework integrated with the propensity scores. We found that the NBLSS helps the poor to reduce financial and material hardships through income and consumption increments, but that it does not provide disincentives to the recipients from participating in the labour market or from saving.     

Do information,price, or morals influence ethical consumption? A natural field experiment and customer survey on the purchase of Fair Trade coffee

We address ethical consumption using a natural field experiment on the actual purchase of Fair Trade (FT) coffee in three supermarkets in Germany. Based on a quasi-experimental before-and-after design the effects of three different treatments – information, 20% price reduction, and a moral appeal – are analyzed. Sales data cover actual ethical purchase behavior and avoid problems of social desirability. But they offer only limited insights into the motivations of individual consumers. We therefore complemented the field experiment with a customer survey that allows us to contrast observed (ethical) buying behavior with self-reported FT consumption. Results from the experiment suggest that only the price reduction had the expected positive and statistically significant effect on FT consumption.     

鲍德里亚的消费经济批判及其艺术性变革

在鲍德里亚看来，当代社会在经济现象形态方面表现为消费经济的活跃，需要进行符号经济学批判。当代消费经济具有独特的运行机制，是将各种商品都转化为符号体系的过程，这既是资本的进一步扩展、资本增值的实然逻辑，又是技术理性的渗透、媒介信息的传播，还是物体系的形成、拜物教的深化。消费经济及其奢侈文化从大都市扩散到世界各地，推动了当代商业的发展。当代消费经济令人与人之间关系冷漠，围绕人的不再是实际物品，而是众多意义，需要用结构主义符号学分析其运行机制，采用艺术性变革的方式消除消费异化。艺术能够建构具有救赎作用的乌托邦，不应只为了满足感官刺激，而要通向真理之路，唤醒人的创造潜能，改造消费社会的不合理机制。     

Consumption and poverty in the homes of the English poor,c. 1670–1834

The consumer behaviour of the poor in the long eighteenth century has attracted more historical attention in recent years. Yet, we have little understanding of whether regional factors affected consumption or how the poor’s ownership of household goods was influenced by level of poverty and the life-cycle. By focusing on Kent and drawing comparisons to other counties, this article argues that the material lives of the poor were improving by the late eighteenth century, but finds that there were distinct regional differences as the poor acquired more and better goods in London and the Home Counties than in relatively remote areas. Moreover, by using pauper inventories and labourers’ probate inventories, the research finds that the poor were not a homogeneous group with similar levels of material wealth, but should be considered in terms of different subgroups which often led very different material lives to one another due to life-cycle-related problems including sickness and old age. Labourers’ probate inventories are found to represent a minority of the poor who were materially richer than most, whilst pauper inventories appear to represent a more typical subgroup of the poor that struggled to make do and owned most types of goods in smaller numbers.     

Optimal consumption and portfolio selection with negative wealth constraints,subsistence consumption constraints,and CARA utility

We consider the optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem with constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility. The economic agent in this model receives constant labor income, and her economic behavior is restricted on consumption and wealth, which are called the subsistence consumption constraint and the negative wealth constraint. We use the convex duality method to derive the value function and the optimal policies in closed-form solutions. Also we illustrate some numerical examples.