Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data

The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top‐down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative‐unit level asset value to grid‐cell level. To do so, finding the highly correlated “surrogate” indicators is the key. A combination of three data sets—nighttime light grid, LandScan population grid, and road density grid, is used as ancillary asset density distribution information for spatializing the asset value. As a result, a high spatial resolution asset value map of China for 2015 is generated. The spatial data set contains aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc‐second spatial resolution. Accuracy of the spatial disaggregation reflects redistribution errors introduced by the disaggregation process as well as errors from the original ancillary data sets. The overall accuracy of the results proves to be promising. The example of using the developed disaggregated asset value map in exposure assessment of watersheds demonstrates that the data set offers immense analytical flexibility for overlay analysis according to the hazard extent. This product will help current efforts to analyze spatial characteristics of exposure and to uncover the contributions of both physical and social drivers of natural hazard and disaster across space and time.     

绿色增长下的导向性技术创新选择研究

针对如何正确引导 GHG 排放的气候反馈经济损失下导向性技术创新，以实现长期的绿色增长这一问题，基于 DICE 模型，重构导向性技术创新不同的动力要素及其与气候变化之间的内生关系，建立了可体现绿色增长“均衡性”、“包容性”和“可持续性”的非线性最优控制模型。数值仿真结果显示: 气候反馈经济损失不容小觑; 偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下社会生产力强劲但存在气候环境恶化风险，偏于减排的绿色技术创新导向下气候反馈经济损失小但存在增长动力匮乏风险，二者虽均可实现长期的绿色增长，但中性的绿色技术创新导向会更稳妥; 偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下人均消费变化率在短期内会显著提升。     

困境与超越：扶贫工作的政治学分析

扶贫开发是国家治理的重要内容，有着丰富的政治意涵，展示着执政党执政、政府治理的基本过程和价值归属。中国的扶贫工作带有着明显的运动式、项目制、压力型的色彩，在取得巨大成效的同时，也有着走向无序化、无效化的风险。以现代国家建设和政党建设的基本理念，构筑多中心的贫困治理格局，建立现代化的扶贫开发的制度体系，走向法治化、制度化、民主化、规范化是扶贫开发的治本之策。     

教育时空拓展:教师专业成长的机遇与挑战

随着人类文明的进步、社会的发展以及信息技术的普及，教育时间和空间得到迅速拓展。教育时空拓展正如一把双刃剑，给教育活动的实施带来机遇的同时也带来了挑战。教师作为教育活动的主要组织者和实施者，在享受机遇的同时也要迎接教育时空拓展所带来的挑战。通过分析教育时空拓展的内涵与表征，发现教师专业成长正处在社会化、终身化与数字化的发展大潮中，因此教师要充分利用好教育时空拓展带来的机遇，同时慎重应对由此面临的挑战，不断提高应变能力，以促进教师专业成长和教育事业的发展。     

Educational Assortative Mating and Income Dynamics in Couples: A Longitudinal Dyadic Perspective

The question of how educational assortative mating may transform couples' lives and within‐family gender inequality has gained increasing attention. Using 25 waves (1979–2012) of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and longitudinal multilevel dyad models, this study investigated how educational assortative mating shapes income dynamics in couples during the marital life course. Couples were grouped into three categories—educational hypergamy (wives less educated than their husbands), homogamy, and hypogamy (wives more educated than their husbands). Results show that change in husbands' income with marital duration is similar across couples, whereas change in wives' income varies by educational assortative mating, with wives in educational hypogamy exhibiting more positive change in income during the marital life course. The finding that husbands' long‐term economic advancement is less affected than that of wives by educational assortative mating underscores the gender‐asymmetric nature of spousal influence in heterosexual marriages.     

属性集容量确定的夹挤式测度模式及其推算模型

迄今，为解决多属性偏好关联决策属性集容量判断指数复杂性难题所提出的λ模糊测度模式与k-可加模糊测度模式，以及建构在它们之上的属性集容量确定的推算模型，尚存在着适用性差的技术不足。为此，以平衡容量判断的可操作性和容量推算的准确性为视角，提出了一种新容量测度模式，即关于容量判断与推算的夹挤式测度模式，并在此基础上通过引入决策者较易判断给出的容量序信息构建了相应的容量推算模型。基于数值模拟的对比分析表明：新模式不仅在应用可行性上高于k-可加模糊测度模式，而且从容量推算的准确性上看也明显优于λ模糊测度模式和k-可加模糊测度模式，因而对实际决策具有更强的适用性。     

怀疑主义与认知价值

当代知识论越来越重视认知价值的研究，但从认知价值角度去重新思考传统怀疑主义问题的研究却很少。历史上的怀疑主义者既认为我们无法拥有任何知识，又主张我们应该悬置判断。因此，他们不仅预设了一个高的知识标准，而且预设了一个价值标准：任何达不到知识标准的认知状态都是没有认知价值的。但这个价值标准是错误的，所以我们即使无法达到怀疑主义者所设定的知识标准，也不必悬置判断。假设怀疑主义者认为我们无法拥有任何知识，同时认可“有些达不到知识标准的认知状态也有认知价值”，那么怀疑主义就没有很大的威胁性，因为即使我们无法获取知识，也可以获得具有认知价值的东西，取得认知进步。此外，摩尔主义、语境主义、溯因主义这几种对怀疑主义的主要回应是否成功，最终都依赖于对认知价值的讨论。     

Impact of support networks for breastfeeding: A multicentre study

Background

The rates of breastfeeding worldwide are slowly improving since 1996. Europe is still trailing behind the global breastfeeding incidence and prevalence rates. Thus, breastfeeding promotion, protection, prolongation and support have become an important challenge as breastfeeding sharply decreases in the first six months of life.