Three Recommendations for Improving the Use of p-Values

ABSTRACT

Researchers commonly use p-values to answer the question: How strongly does the evidence favor the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis? p-Values themselves do not directly answer this question and are often misinterpreted in ways that lead to overstating the evidence against the null hypothesis. Even in the “post p?<?0.05 era,” however, it is quite possible that p-values will continue to be widely reported and used to assess the strength of evidence (if for no other reason than the widespread availability and use of statistical software that routinely produces p-values and thereby implicitly advocates for their use). If so, the potential for misinterpretation will persist. In this article, we recommend three practices that would help researchers more accurately interpret p-values. Each of the three recommended practices involves interpreting p-values in light of their corresponding “Bayes factor bound,” which is the largest odds in favor of the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis that is consistent with the observed data. The Bayes factor bound generally indicates that a given p-value provides weaker evidence against the null hypothesis than typically assumed. We therefore believe that our recommendations can guard against some of the most harmful p-value misinterpretations. In research communities that are deeply attached to reliance on “p?<?0.05,” our recommendations will serve as initial steps away from this attachment. We emphasize that our recommendations are intended merely as initial, temporary steps and that many further steps will need to be taken to reach the ultimate destination: a holistic interpretation of statistical evidence that fully conforms to the principles laid out in the ASA statement on statistical significance and p-values.     

中国自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素及对策研究——基于矫形与塑形传播的视角

提升自主品牌形象是当前改善自主品牌消费环境、扩大自主品牌消费市场的重要现实命题,而厘清自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的根源及影响因素是探讨自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素与战略对策的理论基础。首先以8个论坛的受众跟帖为例,运用扎根理论进行探索性研究,发现负面企业形象、负面国货形象、负面政府形象、媒体渲染、国货意识淡漠和社会规范压力等6个主范畴是导致自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的主要影响因素;然后将范畴作为测量问项,将主范畴作为潜变量,进行问卷调查和实证分析,结果表明,6个主范畴均对自主品牌负面刻板印象存在显著的正向影响。在此基础上,根据自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的影响因素,提炼出自主品牌形象提升的5大关键驱动因素,即企业形象驱动因素、政府形象驱动因素、媒介框架驱动因素、消费者情感驱动因素和社会规范驱动因素,并对其影响效应及对策措施进行了探讨,建构了自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素影响效应模型。     

基因编辑技术背后的伦理与人权

当前基因编辑技术发展迅速,引起各国政府、学术界和企业界的广泛关注。但从近期“基因编辑婴儿”事件来看,基因编辑技术的伦理问题仍须厘清,我国现行法律尚不完善。通过保护基因编辑婴儿隐私、切实发挥伦理委员会作用、加快相关立法工作,我们或可更好地解决基因编辑技术背后的伦理和人权问题。     

数据生产要素的结合机制——互补性资产视角

数据作为生产要素创造的价值备受关注,但目前对数据与其他生产要素的结合机制缺乏明确的解释。本文从互补性资产理论出发,分别探讨数据与技术、资本、劳动生产要素的结合机制。研究表明:在与技术要素的结合上,数据要素的加入能够帮助创新企业更有效地使用互补性资产,从而产生技术创新;在与资本要素的结合上,数据要素的加入降低了企业获取作为生产资源和营销资源的互补性资产的成本,从而产生成本创新;在与劳动要素的结合上,数据要素能够从产品设计和生产方面提升互补性资产的生成效率,从而产生流程创新。最终,数据要素在与核心生产要素的有机结合下,极大促进了数字经济的创新与发展。     

双循环发展的改革开放空间试验场——我国开发区的缘起、演进和趋势

开发区是我国改革开放进程中重要的"制度安排",在制度转型、市场机制培育、产业结构升级和带动地区经济增长等方面发挥着引领示范作用,但同时也存在政策效应边际递减、土地资源浪费、创新不足等诸多问题.梳理我国开发区过去三十多年的发展经验和不足,并展望其未来定位是一项重要的研究课题.在详细讨论我国开发区的缘起、动力机制、发展阶段、功能演变、面临问题的基础上,文章从制度安排、比较优势、产业集聚和商业环境四个方面总结了我国开发区取得的成功经验.未来,开发区的发展应实现从生产到生活、从效率到公平、从地的繁荣到人的繁荣、从外围到中心、从专业化到多样化、从高速增长到高质量发展、从对外开放到国内国际双循环等方面的转变.     

Staff and family attitudes to fences as a means of detaining people with dementia in residential aged care settings: The tension between physical and emotional safety

This study investigates staff and family attitudes towards the use of the fences that surround many aged care facilities in Australia, in the context of indefinite detention of people with dementia. This indefinite detention has been described in a report from an Australian Senate Inquiry as “a significant problem within the aged care context”, which “is often informal, unregulated and unlawful”. Five focus groups comprising direct care workers, family members, nurse unit managers and facility managers discussed the reasons for and their attitudes towards fences. The results show a tension between the provision of physical and emotional safety. This is to say that even while it is illegal to detain people with dementia against their will, and even while participants understood the negative impact of fences on the well‐being and emotional safety of people with dementia, they accepted and supported the presence of perimeter fences because they provided the perception that fences kept people with dementia physically safe. This has implications for redressing the balance between physical and emotional safety in policy and practice.     

资本结构与员工劳动生产率

债务作为重要的公司治理手段，可以降低企业、管理层与员工之间的委托代理成本，提高员工劳动生产率.同时，债务水平上升将提高企业破产风险，对企业和员工的人力资本投入与员工劳动生产率可能产生不利影响.以我国1999年一2014年工业企业上市公司为样本，本文不同佑计方法的实证结果均表明企业的债务水平越高，员工劳动生产率越低.在其他因素不变的情况下，企业的财务困境加剧了债务对员工劳动生产率的不利影响;债务对员工劳动生产率的负作用在人力资本依赖度高的公司以及在外部就业环境好的地区更加显著.对于债务与员工劳动生产率作用的中介效应分析与分位数回归结果也说明债务上升可能导致企业人力资本投资下降，对员工劳动生产率产生不利影响.研究为我国“去杠杆”经济政策提供了微观企业层面的经验证据.     

基于Hawkes因子模型的股价共同跳跃研究

本文首先比较了三种目前主流的共跳检验方法：基于LM检验的共跳检验、BLT共跳检验和FHLL共跳检验，结果表明，三种方法在识别共跳数量上差距明显，但三者结果的重合部分基本属于市场暴涨暴跌行情，说明共跳识别对市场剧烈波动的聚集性较为敏感。基于跳跃、共跳存在的聚集性问题，本文将Hawkes过程引入跳跃和共跳的研究，构建了基于Hawkes过程的因子模型，结果显示，基于Hawkes因子模型的MJ统计量、CJ统计量和实证数据的拟合程度较好，表明因子模型能够更好地描述跳跃和共跳的聚集性。     

Testing the gender similarities hypothesis: differences in subjective task value and motivation to transfer training

ABSTRACT

Are female and male trainees similar or different in their reaction to training programmes, specifically regarding their subjective task value and motivation to transfer? According to the gender similarities hypothesis, women and men are alike on most psychological variables. However, according to research in organizational behaviour, female and male employees differ on certain aspects, such as their job satisfaction and work identity. To test these two views on gender similarities and differences in the context of human resource development and training evaluation, the present study examined the extent to which gender moderated reactions to training. Based on the expectancy-value theory of motivation and self-determination theory, a web-based questionnaire was used to measure six training reactions: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, perceived relative cost, autonomous motivation to transfer, and controlled motivation to transfer. The results indicated that women and men differed in their ratings of attainment value but were similar for the remaining five reaction measures. These outcomes support the gender similarities hypothesis. The findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical implications for modelling gender effects in HRD research and their practical significance for promoting training effectiveness and transfer of training.