金融结构对产业结构影响的时变特征研究——基于SUR和TVPSS模型的实证检验

金融结构与产业结构的关系一直是学术界的研究热点.文章利用中国1998—2017年的年度数据,构建似不相关回归模型从金融结构规模、效率及深化的角度分析金融结构对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响,建立时变参数状态空间模型描绘了金融结构对产业结构合理化和高级化的动态冲击.实证分析结果表明:金融结构规模提高产业结构合理化水平,促进了产业结构高级化;金融结构效率提高产业结构合理化水平,抑制了产业结构高级化;金融结构深化降低产业结构合理化水平,促进了产业结构高级化.金融结构规模、金融结构效率及金融结构深化对产业结构合理化和高级化的冲击均呈现出时变特征;金融结构对产业结构合理化的影响滞后于其对产业结构高级化的影响.金融结构对产业结构的冲击波幅呈现出前期波动大、后期较为平缓的状态,部分金融结构变量对产业结构的动态冲击呈现出"长尾"现象.当前的中国金融结构已经不适合当前的产业结构,需调整金融结构,以提升产业结构合理化水平和高级化水平.     

Giving (Money) Back To Parents: Racial/Ethnic and Immigrant–Native Variation in Monetary Exchanges During the Transition to Adulthood

Scholars consistently find that parents provide economic support to their young adult children through the transition to adulthood. However, scholars rarely examine whether young adults contribute monetary resources to their parents. To test this proposition, I use the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, and the case of “money for living expenses.” Overall, monetary independence is the modal category for all groups. However, when I compare across groups, I find that White young adults with native-born parentage are more likely to report monetary independence, African Americans are more likely to report monetary interdependence and Asian and Latino children of immigrants are more likely to report child-to-parent assistance compared to each other, with SES explaining most, but not all, of these differences. I argue that young adult offspring in non-White families are more likely to provide monetary support to their parents during the transition to adulthood. These transfers may deplete resources for non-White young adults and may exacerbate racial/ethnic inequality during the transition to adulthood.     

中等职业教育财政投入现状分析与对策研究——以河北省为例

文章通过发放调查问卷，归纳、整理“十二五”期间的财务会计报表对河北省中等职业教育财政投入状况进行了分析，揭示了存在的主要问题，提出了改进中等职业教育财政投入机制的对策和建议。     

The Great Recession of 2007: An Agenda for Social Justice

The Great Recession, the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, officially began in December 2007 with an 8 trillion dollar housing bubble and lasted until June 2009, resulting in loss in consumer spending and collapse in the nation’s business investment. For American workers, the Great Recession had far-reaching implications: unemployment, underemployment, pay cuts, and cutbacks in household spending. Although social work has a historical commitment to address the vulnerabilities of people and communities, we argue that the profession neglected to understand fully the factors associated with the Great Recession and to mount an agenda for justice in response to its worker-related impact.     

Cross-validation of the screening scale in an adult protective services sample

Adult Protective Services (APS) professionals are often called on to assess decision-making capacity when investigating financial exploitation. Previous research found that in consecutive APS cases, a decision-making screening scale (LFDSS) also detected financial exploitation. The purpose of this study was to apply the clinical cutoff scores derived from the previous study to a new sample of APS cases. Using a sample of 105 participants, from APS workers across 5 counties this study investigated the clinical utility of the LFDSS to detect financial exploitation based on ratings by APS professionals using the scale. Results demonstrate that the LFDSS has excellent internal consistency and clinical utility properties. This paper provides support for use of the LFDSS as a reliable and valid instrument. Instructions for use of the LFDSS are included in the article, along with information about online support tools.     

基于信息披露文本的上市公司财务困境预测:以中文年报管理层讨论与分析为样本的研究

本文采用文本分析方法研究了中文年报管理层讨论与分析传递的管理层语调能否提供财务困境预测的增量信息、能否提高预测的准确性以及文本内容的信息价值，主要结论为：（1）管理层语调确实为财务困境预测提供了新的信息，能提高财务困境模型的拟合程度和预测能力；（2）管理层语调是对定量财务数据的重要补充，而且这些信息并没有在市场交易价格中得到充分反映；（3）负面语调比净语调具有更高的信息价值；（4）财经文本情感或语调的分析应以基于相关来源财经文本的情感词词典为基础，而直接引入其他领域成熟词典的效果较差。     

关于企业会计准则改革的若干思考

文章首先回顾了从我国计划经济时期的行业会计制度、改革开放初期引进外资背景下的企业会计制度到1993年企业会计准则体系确立的历史进程。在此基础上,系统总结了企业会计准则在改革发展过程中的主要特征,即与国际会计准则逐渐趋同、母公司报表和合并报表同时披露、以历史成本为主兼顾公允价值。经过20多年的发展,中国逐步建立了符合市场经济要求的、与国际规则趋同的、较为完备的企业会计准则体系,使得相关领域工作者的会计思维实现了从计划经济向市场经济的转变。但现行会计准则还存在一些问题,例如未处理好会计准则制定与会计目标之间关系、部分准则产生了不利的经济后果、未很好地建立会计信息分析方法体系等等。基于上述问题,提出了相应的对策建议。研究结论对中国会计准则改革和会计信息服务实体经济具有积极的启示作用。     

Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies

Contrary to the general belief, systemic risk does not only regard the risk posed by balance sheet relationships and interdependencies among institutions. It also features a temporal dimension related to the inappropriate responses of financial market participants to changes in risk over time. This paper proposes a method to simultaneously address the cross-sectional and the time dimension in which systemic risk materializes. The method is based on the TOPHITS algorithm. It provides three scores, namely borrowing, lending and time scores: the first two represent the systemic importance of the borrowing and the lending activity associated with each financial institution,while the third represents an empirical Early Warning Signal of the financial crisis. Our findings reveal that the identification of the time score as an indicator for an incoming market distress could be relevant to design macro prudential policies.     

货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

外汇储备与金融脆弱性关系研究--基于金砖五国的实证分析

外汇储备通过传导机制对国内金融部门产生影响,研究外汇储备变化对金融稳定的影响是国家金融安全的重要内容。本文选取中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非五个"金砖国家"作为新兴市场国家的典型代表,采用Johansen协整检验和Bayesian向量自回归建模方法,实证研究外汇储备变化与金融脆弱性的关系。研究表明,不管从长期还是短期来看,外汇储备变化量增加会提高金融脆弱性指数,帮助国家应对短期经济波动,因此,增加外汇储备有助于国内金融部门稳定,抵御经济危机。