基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为分析

本文主要基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为进行研究，假设拍卖中可能存在欺诈型和诚实型两种卖家，其中欺诈行为有概率发生在第二价格拍卖中：欺诈型卖方冒充竞拍者递交仅次于最高价的报价从而获得额外收益。两种卖家根据各自效用选择拍卖形式：第一价格或者第二价格。而竞买者将卖者的选择作为信号，更新对卖方类型的判断，然后制定报价策略。这是一个买卖方信号交叉影响的过程。考虑到拍卖过程中买方价值相关性，本文在建立模型中参考了关联价值原理。针对该模型进行分析，得出了不同情况下的买卖方策略，并且研究了买方报价、买方判断、卖方收益三者之间的关系。文中利用贝叶斯公式对双方的策略选择问题进行预测，与单纯的概率分布方法相比，更具实践价值。     

Lessons from Nigeria for improved thinking and working politically in the extractives sector

Despite the wealth that comes from being the biggest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has some of the worst development indicators in the world. From 2011 to mid‐2016, the DFID‐funded Facility for Oil Sector Transparency and Reform (FOSTER) programme's unique design aimed to reduce incentives for the capture of oil revenue by elites and international oil companies, restoring the potential of those revenues to accelerate economic and social development. This article asks what lessons FOSTER's successes and failures offer for improved “thinking and working politically” (TWP). It examines the outcomes from five “clusters” of interventions: three viewed by the FOSTER team as successes and two as failures. The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The research used a qualitative and inductive approach. Field research was undertaken with 44 semi‐structured qualitative interviews during one month of fieldwork in Abuja and Lagos. The research also included reviews of FOSTER's internal documentation and evaluation frameworks, as well as analysis of newspaper articles and grey literature on the oil sector in Nigeria. The project offers important lessons for politically informed programming about how interventions were implemented (process), what was actually done (content) and how the project responded to changes in context that created or blocked opportunities for reform (responsiveness). The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The findings have important implications for programme design. They demonstrate the value of built‐in flexibility that allows staff to choose and switch the partners they work with and the channels they work through. They also show that a key aspect of TWP‐based programming is implicit acceptance that some failure may be unavoidable, since this permits staff to balance risk against opportunities. Finally, a better understanding of FOSTER's failures reveals the challenges of a TWP‐based approach and the trade‐offs it demands.     

Applying the Housing First approach to single-site permanent supportive housing

This study explored how the U.S. Departments of Housing and Urban Development-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) program applies Housing First principles in the context of ten single-site programs. Focus group discussions with 64 HUD-VASH staff and community partners explored how the programs were influenced by Housing First principles and specific strategies to implement these principles in a single-site setting. Focus group respondents described resourceful ways that the principles of Housing First were implemented in their programs specifically related to (1) housing choice and structure, (2) separation of housing and services, (3) service philosophy, and (4) service array. Several of the Housing First domains cite the importance of integrated housing and the provision of services off-site; it was of particular interest to learn how single-site programs address these issues logistically. Lessons learned from this study include the importance of leveraging the independent yet overlapping tasks of case management and property management to ensure functional – if not geographic – separation of housing and services; maintaining staff on-site to address Veterans’ needs; working with community service organizations to complement the array of service available to residents; and housing single-site programs in mixed-use buildings.     

美国“三重奏”大学生帮扶项目的实施、效果与启示

自1965年起,美国联邦政府逐渐建立起“三重奏”大学生帮扶项目体系,可视为是对以家庭第一代大学生为代表的低社会经济地位青年文化资本和社会资本储备不足问题的回应。作为该项目体系的三个初始子项目,“攀登极限”“人才发掘”“学生支持服务”主要通过提供学业辅导,帮助准备入学考试,提供各类资助信息并协助学生完成申请程序,提供参与文化活动机会等方式发挥作用。研究表明,“三重奏”体系有效提升了参与学生的录取率、保留率和毕业率。为进一步推进中国高等教育公平,借鉴美国经验,我们应重视对家庭第一代大学生的非经济支持,前置其介入时间并保持连续性,并注意发挥高等学校的主导性作用。     

20世纪上半叶中美林学交流与互动研究

基于对一批英文资料的挖掘和整理,对20世纪上半叶中美两国在林学领域,从政府、社会到学者层面,从教育、科学研究到救灾防灾,从林学人才、技术、思想、林业行政组织到造林、防止土壤侵蚀与河流洪水控制等方面开展的交流与互动进行了详细的梳理。研究认为,中美两国在林学领域的交流是双向的,美国以中国毁林为教训的做法被中国学者作为警示国内政府和社会并呼吁重视林业、发展林学以救灾防灾的宣传工具,这是在近代中西方交流过程中林学不同于其他学科的方面。     

Donor Requirements and Pockets of Effectiveness in Senegal's Bureaucracy

Donors increasingly value the work of statistics, project assessment and related offices in developing countries, but can they ensure these offices are able to do their work? This article assesses donors’ efforts to do so in Senegal's ministries of finance, health and agriculture in the mid‐2000s. It contends that donors' impact is greatest if they generate political incentives for governments to create ‘pockets of effectiveness’ in these areas. The health and agriculture case studies indicate that direct donor involvement, particularly if incompatible with domestic political forces, produces disappointing results, while the finance case studies suggest donors can induce political support for the work of specific offices if donor incentives coincide with domestic political imperatives.     

Enacting the Millennium Development Goals: Political Technologies of Calculation and the Counter-calculation of Poverty in Namibia

Abstract

This paper advances that the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) act as a governmentality that brings with them assemblages of international and national policies and practices of poverty reduction. These assemblages are characterized by neoliberal rationalities that shape relationships and practices with and of the poor themselves by repositioning and deploying the values and norms of the market as the principal means for the establishment of development aid partnerships. Such rationalities, we argue, are exercised through political technologies that make visible and operable certain governing schemes such as calculative practices. Drawing on extensive interview, policy, programme, and archival documents, the paper advances the argument that the MDGs and the national development plan for Namibia, Vision 2030, shape ideas of poverty reduction through political technologies of calculation and via multi-scale partnership arrangements. These technologies emerge from diverse elements, subsume the shaping of social and political spaces, and have diverse effects on the lives of the poor. Our analysis also highlights an approach to poverty reduction in Namibia, that of BIG, a Basic Income Grant scheme. We view BIG as a potential counter-calculation of poverty, and counter-partnership to poverty reduction efforts, which can develop into a more socially just and sustainable means to reduce poverty and lead to an overturn of contemporary neoliberal assemblages of poverty reduction.     

Hedging Barrier Options in GARCH Models with Transaction Costs

This study proposes a modified strike‐spread method for hedging barrier options in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with transaction costs. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the hedging performance of the proposed method in comparison with several well‐known static methods for hedging barrier options. An accurate, easy‐to‐implement and fast scheme for generating the first passage time under the GARCH framework which enhances the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation is also proposed. Simulation results and an empirical study using real data indicate that the proposed approach has a promising performance for hedging barrier options in GARCH models when transaction costs are taken into consideration.