线上限时抢购中消费者购买意愿影响因素研究

基于技术接受模型(TAM)构建了线上限时抢购中消费者购买意愿影响因素模型,重点研究在线上限时抢购中影响消费者购买意愿的关键性因素,以及这些因素间的相互关系。结果表明,价格折扣、正品品牌以及图片展示正向影响感知有用性,并通过感知有用性间接影响购买意愿;时间限制、数量限制正向影响感知压力,并通过感知压力间接影响购买意愿。     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

农村“闪婚”：父权文化下的“本地婚”

本文以父权为视角,以权力的文化网络为框架,借用传统乡村社会中以宗族、人际关系网为基础的组织体系和通过亲属关系、面子体系等构成的象征体系,深入分析农村“闪婚”的本地化成因.本文认为,传统父权文化并没有因现代思想的冲击而消逝,而是在当下农村继续发挥作用.在打工经济限制青年男女返乡时间的背景下,受父权思想影响的父辈群体为了保证家族的传宗接代,以教化权力为基础,通过打、拉、限、借的方式规训子女的择偶地点,建立起本地的通婚圈.这一模式使得青年男女的择偶时间和择偶地点只有在年假时才得以短暂重合,择偶时间被大大缩短,由此产生了新的择偶方式——“闪婚”.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.     

Mental Models of Flash Floods and Landslides

Perceptions of flash floods and landslides were analyzed in four communities of the Bavarian Alps using the mental model approach. Thirty-eight qualitative interviews, two telephone surveys with 600 respondents, and two onsite interviews (74/95 respondents) were conducted. Mental models concerning flash floods are much better developed than those for landslides because the key physical processes for flash floods are easier for the general public to recognize and understand. Mental models are influenced by the local conditions. People who have a better knowledge about the hazards are those who use many different sources to inform themselves, express fear about natural hazards, or have previous experience with hazards. Conclusions for how to improve information for the general public are discussed.     

网络时代新闻漫画的生存与发展

从新闻漫画的由来入手,分析了我国新闻漫画在电脑、网络等新媒体技术日益更新、迅速发展的网络时代的生存危机与发展优势;总结了网络时代新闻漫画的发展现状以及存在的问题,并有针对性地提出了相应的解决办法;同时,笔者分别从版面优势、技术优势、视觉效果和新媒体带来的优势等几个方面分析了网络新闻漫画的发展优势,并大胆预测了网络时代新闻漫画的发展前景。     

浅析元件在多媒体动画制作中的应用

分析了元件在动画制作中的重要作用.元件是指在flash中创建且保存在库中的图形、按钮或影片剪辑.它可以重复使用,是flash动画中最基本的元素.在此讨论了元件的定义、分类及在实例中的具体应用.     

弹性卸料冲裁多媒体教学软件的编制

Flash制作的矢量图和动画具有尺寸小、交互性强、无损放大、带音效和兼容性好等特点;导入专业级绘图工具绘制的图形能产生翻转、拉抻、擦除、倾斜等效果;用Flash软件编制模拟冲裁过程进行多媒体教学是一条把抽象问题形象化的较好途径.     

日本新媒体动漫的发展状况及其特点

21世纪动漫已经从传统的平面媒体逐渐走向电视、电影、网络、手机等众多新媒体领域。日本新媒体动漫分为网络动漫和手机动漫。2006年风靡一时的flash作品《柔软战车》是网络原创动画从企划到制作直至最后销售的成功范例。新媒体动漫行业在日本成为技术和艺术不断结合创新并提高的舞台。     

思想在孤独中闪光——杨金砖与他的《孤独的守望》

思想的魅力是无穷的,杨金砖是一个奔跑的思想者.他始终以一个文人和学者的敏锐与良知关注民生疾苦、抨击现实的阴暗.相对俗流来说,他又是一个孤独者,他对高洁情操的坚守、对精神的张扬、对世俗的蔑视与嘲笑,发聋振聩,令人反省与深思.