Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

论职业病病人的人身损害补偿与赔偿请求权--以《职业病防治法》第58、59条规定为中心

职业病病人的人身损害通常具有缓发性、不可逆等特质。《职业病防治法》第58、59条分别规定了工伤保险待遇给付请求权和人身损害赔偿请求权。工伤保险待遇在本质上属于人身损害补偿，如要实现损害之全部填补，职业病病人可以选择从契约关系、侵权行为、保险契约、法律之特别规定等视角，以仲裁或诉讼方式请求用人单位予以人身损害赔偿。     

论《侵权责任法》规定的医疗产品损害责任

《侵权责任法》规定的医疗产品损害责任，从性质上来说，既是医疗损害责任的一个特殊类型，也属于产品责任的范畴，适用无过错责任原则。其中第59条规制的适用范围包括有缺陷的药品、消毒药剂和医疗器械以及不合格的血液，但此适用范围应予以界定。在此界定内，导致患者损害的医疗机构、生产者所承担的赔偿责任才是《侵权责任法》第59条规定的医疗产品损害责任。     

粘土矿物产状和微结构对地层损害的影响

对120块岩样XRD、SEM分析结果表明,下二门油田纵向粘土矿物演化规律明显,浅、上层系以蒙皂石—高岭石组合为主,中、下层系为绿泥石—高岭石—伊/蒙间层组合,深层系为绿泥石—伊利石组合。发育七种粘土微结构类型,地层微粒的稳定性由占主导地位的微结构类型决定。微结构稳定性序列为层流状>绒球状>畴状>叠片支架状>絮团状>蜂窝状>支架状。预测碱敏、水敏、盐敏和出砂是最严重的地层损害方式。     

Fiddling while the planet burns? COP25 in perspective

ABSTRACT

With fires, storms, social protests, and climate strikes sweeping the world, 2019 should have been a tipping point in how the world responds to global heating. This was the backdrop to the COP25 climate change summit which took place in Madrid in December 2019. This paper assesses the outcomes of the meeting and the path towards the critically important meeting in Glasgow at the end of 2020. It analyses and explains the key points of contention over levels of ambition, the rules which should govern global carbon markets and sensitive issues such as loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change. The analysis is situated within a broader geopolitical and economic context of right-wing populism, deepening forms of marketization and financialization of responses to climate change and against a background of a world increasingly feeling the effects of the climate crisis.     

中美经贸关系现状及经济发展差距的基本判断

2017年以来,中美两国之间发生了激烈的经贸摩擦,对两国宏观经济和社会福利产生一定的负面影响。中国社会科学院工业经济研究所与《中国经济学人》(China Economist)杂志从中美经贸关系现状、中美经贸摩擦影响、中美两国经济发展差距、美国总统大选等角度分析中国经济学人对中美经贸关系及经济发展差距的认知和判断。调查发现,经济学人认为虽然中美经贸摩擦短时间内难以消除,但中美两国的经济互补性仍很强,贸易增长空间较大,未来发展方向一定是合作与竞争并有。经济学人预判,今后20年中美两国的经济增速分别为4.8%和2.1%,中国将于2034年追平美国经济总量,将于2043年追平美国制造业总体技术水平,将于2072年追平美国人均GDP,实现赶超。     

中美经贸摩擦及其对美国在华企业的影响

中美经贸摩擦的主要表现是美国不断对中国的出口产品加征关税。在估算中美经贸摩擦对美国在华企业的影响后认为,由于美国在华企业在美国整体利益格局中占比较小,产品出口比例较小及其行业分布的特点,导致中美经贸摩擦对美国在华企业的影响十分有限,但这也意味着美国在中国的直接投资不会大量减少。中国应准确把握和平衡好利用在华美资企业牵制美国政府的应对措施,通过更高水平的扩大开放来应对中美经贸摩擦。     

Optimal Age Policy for a Used System with Imperfect Preventive Maintenance and Cumulative Damage Model

In this article, the concept of imperfect preventive maintenance is discussed and an age maintenance policy is developed based on the cumulative damage model for a used system with initial variable damage. The deterioration of the system is assumed to suffer the non-homogeneous Poisson shocks which can be divided into two types with stochastic probability: Type-I shock (minor) yields a random amount of additive damage of the system, or Type-II shock (catastrophic) causes the system to fail. An age preventive maintenance policy T is presented in which the system undergoes preventive maintenance at a scheduled lifetime T, or corrective maintenance at first Type-II shock and the total damage exceeds a threshold level, whichever occurs first. The objective is to determine the optimal preventive maintenance schedule such that the expected cost rate is minimized. The optimal solution is derived analytically and discussed numerically.     

一个“成功"游牧民定居工程背后的资源困境

游牧民定居工程被视为改变牧区靠天养牧、加速牧区现代化和城镇化的重要举措而广泛实施。 游牧民定居工程迅速且深刻地改变着草原牧区的自然、社会及经济形态,同时也改变了人与自然资源之间的互动关系及作用时空尺度。 在“成功冶的定居点,牧民生活水平大幅提高,且对天然草场的利用减少;但是,对比相邻的村庄发现,其“成功冶的关键在于有足够的外部资源输入,包括草场、农田和地下水等。 而从区域的生态环境来看,这种“成功冶模式并不符合当地干旱地区的生态特征,有可能造成更大范围内的生态破坏。 因此,游牧民定居工程应该从区域生态特征出发,对类似“成功冶模板的推广更加谨慎。     

论生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之衔接

在现行司法实践中,我国对生态环境损害之救济采取的是生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼并行的"双轨制"模式.通过分析典型案件可以发现,现行立法未能为化解生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之间的制度"碰撞"提供明确的规范指南,导致"两诉"之间时常会陷入管辖冲突与衔接困境.生态环境损害赔偿诉讼的模糊属性以及相关立法规定的缺失,是导致"两诉"衔接陷入困境之根由.为此,应当在准确识别生态环境损害赔偿诉讼性质之前提下,通过立法对"两诉"之间的顺位规则、索赔主体机制等核心规范予以明确.具体而言,未来我国应当明确生态环境损害赔偿诉讼优于环境公益诉讼的顺位规则,并建立"行政机关—环保组织—检察机关"三位一体且逐层递进的索赔主体结构,最大程度发挥"两诉"之制度合力.