Earthquakes occurrences estimation through a parametric semi-Markov approach

The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem in seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. In our paper, we adopt a parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a Markov process and besides it permits to take into consideration the more realistic assumption of events’ dependence in space and time. The elapsed time between two consecutive events is modeled as a general Weibull distribution. We determine then the transition probabilities and the so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude then with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data.     

Adaptive stochastic gradient boosting tree with composite criterion

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose an adaptive stochastic gradient boosting tree for classification studies with imbalanced data. The adjustment of cost-sensitivity and the predictive threshold are integrated together with a composite criterion into the original stochastic gradient boosting tree to deal with the issues of the imbalanced data structure. Numerical study shows that the proposed method can significantly enhance the classification accuracy for the minority class with only a small loss in the true negative rate for the majority class. We discuss the relation of the cost-sensitivity to the threshold manipulation using simulations. An illustrative example of the analysis of suboptimal health-state data in traditional Chinese medicine is discussed.     

Dimension reduction via local rank regression

Outer product of gradients (OPG) achieves dimension reduction via estimating the gradients of the regression function. In this paper, we propose two novel OPG estimators via local rank regression: the rank OPG estimator and the Walsh-average OPG estimator. Both proposals guard against a wide range of error distributions, and are safe alternatives to existing OPG estimators based on local linear regression or local L1 regression. The effectiveness of the new proposals are demonstrated via extensive numerical studies.     

近代广东商业人群在广西的分布面及其梯度差考详——粤港商业经济对广西经济辐射研究之二

文章从中国近代史上城镇经济主体——商业经济的角度切入,运用各类历史资料,分区逐县地确证广东商业人群以及所造成的“无东不成市”格局在全广西的分布范围,并揭示其在广西不同地域的程度等差和梯度分布状态。从而,以原始的生活场景原生态地呈现出粤港澳地区对广西经济辐射由东而西逐步推进、由城市而圩市逐层次渗透的基本节奏和客观规律。     

How Close Is Close Enough: Public Perceptions of the Risks of Industrial Facilities

Public opinion poll data have consistently shown that the proportion of respondents who are willing to have a nuclear power plant in their own community is smaller than the proportion who agree that more nuclear plants should be built in this country. Respondents' judgments of the minimum safe distance from each of eight hazardous facilities confirmed that this finding results from perceived risk gradients that differ by facility (e.g., nuclear vs. natural gas power plants) and social group (e.g., chemical engineers vs. environmentalists) but are relatively stable over time. Ratings of the facilities on thirteen perceived risk dimensions were used to determine whether any of the dimensions could explain the distance data. Because the rank order of the facilities with respect to acceptable distance was very similar to the rank order on a number of the perceived risk dimensions, it is difficult to determine which of the latter is the critical determinant of acceptable distance if, indeed, there is only one. There were, however, a number of reversals of rank order that indicate that the respondents had a differentiated view of technological risk. Finally, data from this and other studies were interpreted as suggesting that perceived lack of any other form of personal control over risk exposure may be an important factor in stimulating public opposition to the siting of hazardous facilities.     

新吉坪隧道斜井进正洞挑顶施工技术研究

沪昆铁路客运专线新吉坪隧道所处地质条件复杂，区域地质作用剧烈，碳酸岩分布广泛，不良地质特别发育。针对斜井进正洞施工，提出了纵向爬坡导坑法。并以2#斜井为例，介绍了纵向爬坡导坑法施工工艺和斜井进正洞挑顶施工的控制要点，以及在施工过程中的控制量测方法，为新吉坪隧道斜井进正洞挑顶施工提供了技术指导，为类似工程施工提供参考。     

射频六端口OFDM解调器研究

该文提出了一种新的基于射频六端口网络的多频带OFDM解调器。推导了该解调器的数学模型,仿真了用于WLAN802.11a通信系统时,射频六端口网络的本振电平、输入信号电平对解调器性能的影响。研究了射频六端口网络中正交电桥和同相电桥分别存在相位幅度不平衡时和同时存在相位幅度不平衡时解调器误差矢量幅度的特性。讨论了解调器的动态范围、接收性能等指标。结果表明结合当前的MMIC集成水平,使用射频六端口网络可以实现多频带、多制式、多载波的OFDM解调器。     

Urban tree cover: an ecological perspective

Analysis of urban tree cover is generally limited to inventories of tree structure and composition on public lands. This approach provided valuable information for resource management. However, it does not account for all tree cover within an urban landscape, thus providing insufficient information on ecological patterns and processes. We propose evaluating tree cover for an entire urban area that is based on patch dynamics. Treed patches are classified by their origin, structure, and management intensity. A patch approach enables ecologists to evaluate ecological patterns and processes for the entire urban landscape and to examine how social patterns influence these ecological patterns and processes.     

Methods for spatial and temporal land use and land cover assessment for urban ecosystems and application in the greater Baltimore-Chesapeake region

Understanding contemporary urban landscapes requires multiple sets of spatially and temporally compatible data that can integrate historical land use patterns and disturbances to land cover. This paper presents three principal methods: (1) core analysis; (2) historic mapping; and (3) gradient analysis, to link spatial and temporal data for urban ecosystems and applies their use in the Baltimore-Chesapeake region. Paleoecological evidence derived from the geochronology of sediment cores provides data on long-term as well as recent changes in vegetative land cover. This information, combined with contemporary vegetation maps, provides a baseline for conducting trend analyses to evaluate urbanization of the landscape. A 200-year historical land use database created from historical maps, census data, and remotely sensed data provides a spatial framework for investigating human impacts on the region. A geographic information system (GIS) integrates core analyses with historic data on land use change to yield a comprehensive land use and land cover framework and rates of change. These data resources establish the regional foundation for investigating the ecological components of an urban ecosystem. Urban-rural gradient analyses and patch analyses are proposed as the most appropriate methods for studying the urban ecosystem as they link ecological and social patterns and processes for varying degrees of urbanization.