Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊，相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”，表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响，其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据，对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比，分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。     

Risk factors for child maltreatment in South Korea: An investigation of a nationally representative sample

This study investigated the risk factors associated with the occurrence of child physical and psychological abuse in South Korea based on the ecological theory of child maltreatment. A subsample of 3‐ to 18‐year‐old children from “A Study on the Current State of Child Abuse and Neglect,” a nationally representative study on child abuse and neglect, was utilized for secondary data analysis. The sample was divided into two age groups (third graders in elementary school and below and fourth graders and above). We utilized hierarchical logistic regression for each age group separately to analyze the data. The variables at each level of the system (i.e., ontogenic development, microsystem, and exosystem) were entered into the model in sequential order. The results showed the common risk factors for both age groups are the caregiver's experience of abuse in childhood, the child's problem behavior, exposure to domestic violence, community size, and informal social control. The child's age was also significant in both groups but in the opposite direction. Social support was a significant predictor for the younger age group only, while the caregiver's level of education was significant for the older age group only. Implications for future research and practice are discussed based on the study results.     

政务大厅服务效能影响因素实证分析

政务大厅在积极开展创新实践的同时，也存在区域发展不平衡、部门协调难、窗口忙闲不均等诸多问题。量化政务大厅的服务效能，有效识别影响服务效能的关键因素，对于更快更好发挥大厅在"放管服"改革中的作用具有重要的现实意义。文献回顾与理论推演相结合提炼出大厅服务效能评价指标以及效能影响因素指标，基于普查数据量化指标，采用主成分分析法评价服务效能，构建回归模型，同时考虑大厅发展的区域性差异，分别从总体和分区域进行实证分析。研究结果表明，服务模式、生产要素、服务内容均会对大厅服务效能产生影响，且各区域大厅的具体影响因素和因素的影响程度均存在较大差异。基于此，应因地制宜开展大厅服务模式创新；推动大厅建设标准制定；落实审批事项全面进驻大厅，丰富大厅服务种类，优化服务结构。     

建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制研究

改革开放以来，我国经济发展取得了巨大成就，但也面临一些重大挑战，特别是本土企业加入、依赖跨国公司主导的产业链，在短期内得以迅速发展的同时，也导致本土产业链出现了断裂和碎片化的问题，这对本土企业的创新和发展是不利的。文章研究在我国建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制的基本规律和特点，为提高本土企业的创新能力提供借鉴。研究的主要发现是，这是一个复杂和曲折的过程，在这一过程的启动阶段和转折阶段，非经济因素或者至少是长期经济因素而不是短期经济因素具有独特的、非常重要的作用。     

Analysing facilitating and hindering factors for implementing gender equality interventions in R&I: Structures and processes

This article analyses the facilitating and hindering factors that have affected the implementation of gender equality interventions in research and innovation in Europe. It applies the evaluation framework developed in the EFFORTI project that recognizes the complexity of evaluating gender equality interventions in R&I, the importance of factoring in context to any sound evaluation as well as the need to distinguish between the design and implementation of interventions in evaluations. It is based on the analysis of 19 empirical case studies carried out throughout Europe and focuses on those structural and procedural factors that have either facilitated or hindered the implementation process of these interventions. Findings include how the governance framework; top-management commitment; bottom-up participation; framing synergies with other initiatives, strategies for tackling resistance; resources; sustainability of actions; gender competence, experience and knowledge and transparency, targets, standards and monitoring; and accessible data and information all contributed to the successful implementation of the interventions.     

Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach

Current approaches to risk management place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents (HAs), and the knowledge available to those agents. In this article, we address the second of these issues. We are concerned with a class of systems containing HAs playing a variety of roles as significant system elements—as decisionmakers, cognitive agents, or implementers—that is, human activity systems. Within this family of HAS, we focus on safety and mission‐critical systems, referring to this subclass as critical human activity systems (CHASs). Identification of the role and contribution of these human elements to a system is a nontrivial problem whether in an engineering context, or, as is the case here, in a wider social and public context. Frequently, they are treated as standing apart from the system in design or policy terms. Regardless of the process of policy definition followed, analysis of the risk and threats to such a CHAS requires a holistic approach, since the effect of undesirable, uninformed, or erroneous actions on the part of the human elements is both potentially significant to the system output and inextricably bound together with the nonhuman elements of the system. We present a procedure for identifying the potential threats and risks emerging from the roles and activity of those HAs, using the 2014 flooding in southwestern England and the Thames Valley as a contemporary example.     

Economic burden of tuberculosis and its coping mechanism at the household level in Pakistan

Despite the availability of free medicines under the Directly Observed Treatment Short-course (DOTS) strategy, the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) still involves high costs that push people into poverty. This study aims to assess the resulting economic burden of TB and examine the coping mechanisms practiced at the household level in Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was conducted at TB centers by interviewing 269 patients. Statistical tests and binary logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and socio-economic factors. Results show that the incidence and intensity of CHE were higher for households in the lower income-quintile. Several coping strategies were practiced and varied among the different income-quintiles. The independent determinants of CHE were as follows: age >40 years, male-patient, location, earner-ratio, patient as the earner, caretaker visits, treatment delay, and co-morbidity. It is recommended that health policymakers develop post-MDGs TB-control strategies to ensure free TB-services with financial protection around the globe.     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。