A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

大众传播中的“国家教师”媒介形象分析

运用传播学内容分析法，以中央媒体对获得"全国教书育人楷模"和"最美教师"荣誉称号的"国家教师"相关报道为研究对象，从外在和内在两个方面对大众传播的"国家教师"媒介形象进行分析。外在形象包括教师性别、年龄、教龄、外表、场景以及任教的学校类别、区域、学科专业等方面，内在形象包括职业精神、职业知识和职业能力等方面。研究发现，大众媒体对"国家教师"形象的刻画和宣传符合社会公众认知教师职业的基本逻辑，起到了传递教师精神、端正教师形象、唤起社会尊重教师的功效，但也存在城乡教师形象传播刻板化以及教师普通人形象展现不充分等问题，可在后续的传播中对"国家教师"形象的价值倾向进行适当调整。     

微信时代风险信息的传播与感知——以山东“问题”疫苗事件为例

目前,以手机终端为依托的微信传播技术不仅给社会传播方式带来了前所未有的改变,而且给社会风险信息的传播获取以及公众对风险的感知与判断,甚至政府的风险决策与治理方式都带来了巨大的挑战.鉴于此,选取了比较典型的案例——山东“问题”疫苗事件作为探讨对象,结合相应的统计资料,深入分析了在此案例中微信传播呈现出的显著特征,即传播内容庞杂未见明显的“沉默螺旋”的显现,传播态度多元化但偏于激动,传播迅速集中但议题缺乏持续的关注.研究认为,正由于这样的传播特征加之疫苗风险本身的特征与个体的偏颇性解读,使公众对“问题”疫苗事件产生了强烈的风险感知,并在一定程度上造成了疫苗的污名化结果.因此建议微信时代一定要警惕媒介化的风险,风险沟通要在同理心的基础上进行,要引导公众对风险议题进行持续理性的关注等.     

独生子女大学生运动项目特点研究

以独生子女大学生运动项目特点为研究对象 ,通过对一～四年级 2 5 38名在校独生子女大学生进行了问卷调查和个别访问 ,并对其调查结果进行数据统计分析研究 ,提出了改进目前普通高校传统体育课教学方法 ,及早调整课程设置 ,按运动项目特点安排课程内容 ,为培养独生子女大学生终生参加体育锻炼打下良好基础     

试析我国房地产投资运作模式及其发展

随着我国房地产市场由卖方市场逐渐过渡到买方市场,房地产投资运作模式由作坊生产式投资模式逐渐向社会化大生产式投资模式椎进。     

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

大众与狂欢

狂欢是大众文化的一种重要的接受模式。它与以往的文化接受模式有所不同。但这种狂欢模式并不是大众文化时代独有的 ,其所以在大众文化时代再度兴起 ,有着时代的、审美的、心理的、社会的原因。这是一种不容忽视但需加以引导的模式。在一个多元文化的时代 ,没有或仅有这种模式都是不正常的。     

高校素质教育探索

高等学校素质教育的核心问题,要为大众教育,学科本身要改革难的问题。学习怎样学习,在愉快中学习,学会学习就是学会生存。发展交叉学科,开展跨学科的课题研究,开辟新的研究领域,例如双语十数学的教学模式独具特色。重视培养学生创造性思维、设计、动手、人际交往四种能力,培养学生全面发展,培养学生艰苦奋斗,到西部创业的精神。     

正确认识和对待私营企业主入党的问题

私营企业主能否入党是一个众说纷纭的敏感问题。社会主义事业的建设者的特性决定了优秀的私营企业主可以入党 ;发展优秀的私营企业主入党应该把握好发展党员的方针政策、原则和程序以及对优秀私营企业主的考察培养等问题     

或有事项对企业财务能力影响的分析--兼谈会计中的不确定性

阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题