On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Accurate computation of single and product moments of order statistics under progressive censoring

An accurate procedure is proposed to calculate approximate moments of progressive order statistics in the context of statistical inference for lifetime models. The study analyses the performance of power series expansion to approximate the moments for location and scale distributions with high precision and smaller deviations with respect to the exact values. A comparative analysis between exact and approximate methods is shown using some tables and figures. The different approximations are applied in two situations. First, we consider the problem of computing the large sample variance–covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimators. We also use the approximations to obtain progressively censored sampling plans for log-normal distributed data. These problems illustrate that the presented procedure is highly useful to compute the moments with precision for numerous censoring patterns and, in many cases, is the only valid method because the exact calculation may not be applicable.     

Circular economy and the city: an urban political economy agenda

ABSTRACT

The circular economy (CE) has become a matter of urban development. A literature review shows that the CE debate is biased toward technology-driven industrial change, while bracketing broader socio-political interests. We address this gap by exploring the political economy of scale of the CE. Looking into the case of Brussels (Belgium), a city that has recently adopted the CE as part of its socio-economic strategy, we explore how the anticipated transition to a ‘circular city’ chimes with long-standing urban development agendas. While there is little evidence of stable growth coalitions between corporate and political elites, we argue that the CE provides an ‘urban sustainability fix’ by selectively incorporating ecological goals in urban governance strategies. We further scrutinise the landscape of diverse and heterogenous CE practices in food and transport, highlighting how they are regulated and organised, what labour conditions they offer, and how they are anchored in urban space.     

Factor Structure and Reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale with Latino and Caucasian Male Emerging Adults

Abstract

Based on the value of children theory, the purpose of this study was to develop and establish the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale (ACS), a self-report measure of a modification of Hoffman and Hoffman’s value scheme of the psychological needs children meet for their parents. Data were collected from 685 emerging adult men identifying as Latino or Caucasian who were not parents. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis found a good fit for the six hypothesized subscales on the ACS: connectedness, expansion of self, family heritage, adult status and social identity, development of self, and family maintenance. We discuss potential applications of the measure in research and practice.     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

Enabling everything: scale,disability and the film The Theory of Everything

This article looks at the representation of scale in the 2014 film The Theory of Everything, identifying moments that relate to three concerns: firstly, how disabled people experience scale issues at an all too practical level in daily life; secondly, how Hawking’s experience of scale at the level of both body and mind is (a)typical of the way it is experienced by disabled people generally; and, thirdly, how a focus on the film can prompt some rethinking of perspectives both within disability studies and within the conceptualisation of scale more broadly.     

金融投资影响居民主观幸福感的影响研究——基于CFPS数据

随着金融资产在居民家庭资产结构中的地位上升,金融投资活动对居民主观幸福感的影响日趋显著,这种主观幸福感可以用生活满意程度和未来信心程度来刻画。来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的经验证据表明,家庭金融投资规模对居民生活满意程度和未来信心程度都会产生负向影响；家庭金融投资绝对收益对居民生活满意程度存在正向影响,而家庭金融投资相对收益则对居民未来信心程度存在负向影响。这些情形可能源自于金融投资市场在市场机制、公平程度、投资者教育等方面的欠缺,需要管理者采取措施来改变这种幸福感损失。     

Global product development projects: measuring performance and monitoring the risks

Abstract

This article investigates the development and application of key performance indicators for global product development. Two in-depth, longitudinal case studies with multinational Danish manufacturing companies were conducted, and highlight how key performance indicators, typically used for collocated, cross-functional product development, do not provide the predictive insight required to avoid the additional risks encountered in the global product development environment. Grounded in the case study results and building on established methodologies in performance measurement literature, a framework was developed and validated in two additional Danish companies to support project managers to develop: preventive indicators, which support the avoidance of identified risks, and outcome indicators, which support the measurement towards the attainment of project objectives. The study is unique as it is one of the very few longitudinal studies of engineering design activities in a global context, providing the in-depth contextual understanding towards key risks and their influence on performance; an important step to support researchers and practitioners with the development of preventive measures.     

Measuring servitization progress and outcome: the case of ‘advanced services’

The purpose of this paper is to establish a framework for assessing the progress and outcome of a manufacturer’s transformation towards becoming a provider of ‘advanced services’ – a complex bundling of products and services, whereby manufacturers offer capabilities and outcomes instead of products alone. ‘Advanced services’ represent the most complex offering in the current servitization trend amongst manufacturers. However, current performance measures lack the breadth and focus to assess progress or outcomes, and so support research and practice of organisational transformation efforts required. To address this gap the paper investigates how a manufacturer’s efforts to become an ‘advanced services’ provider can be comprehensively measured, and develops a framework for assessing the transformation journey towards becoming an ‘advanced services’ provider. The research method is based on (1) a systematic literature review process to create a comprehensive set of service-related performance measures that are available to assess a manufacturer’s servitization efforts, followed by (2) an engagement with an expert panel to synthesise the identified measures and create a set of ‘advanced services’ performance measures. The proposed framework is presented as a scorecard that can be used in practice to assess the progress and outcome of a manufacturer’s transformation towards becoming a provider of ‘advanced services’.     

From design to operations: a process management life-cycle performance measurement system for Public-Private Partnerships

Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a critical vehicle for delivering infrastructure worldwide. Yet, the use of such a procurement strategy has received considerable criticism, as they have been prone to experiencing time/cost overruns and during their operation poorly managed. A key issue contributing to the poor performance of PPPs is the paucity of an effective and comprehensive performance measurement system. There has been a tendency for the performance of PPPs to be measured based on their ex-post criteria of time, cost and quality. Such criteria do not accommodate the complexities and lifecycle of an asset. In addressing this problem, the methodology of sequential triangulation is used to develop and examine the effectiveness of a ‘Process Management Life Cycle Performance Measurement System’. The research provides public authorities and private-sector entities embarking on PPPs with a robust mechanism to effectively measure, control and manage their projects’ life cycle performances, ensuring the assets are ‘future proofed’.