投资者情绪生成机理的研究

基于标准金融理论与行为金融理论相结合的思想，力图刻画投资者情绪的生成机理。以引起投资者情绪变化的货币环境、市场收益、市场波动、相关资产收益等因素为起点，引入市场投资价值、市场预期两个中间变量，建立了包含直接和间接影响两类路径的投资者情绪生成概念模型。使用中国股市2014年7月1日至2017年3月31日间的667组日度数据，在VAR建模的基础上开展实证研究。实证结果表明市场收益对投资者情绪具有直接的正向影响，市场波动和相关资产收益两因素基于市场预期中介变量间接负向作用于投资者情绪，而修正后引入的经济周期波动变量可以基于市场投资价值中介变量对投资者情绪产生正向影响，并进一步发现了市场收益、市场投资价值与投资者情绪之间存在正反馈强化过程。研究揭示出了投资者情绪生成的影响因素体系及其实现路径，将该领域研究深入到机理分析层面，并从一个侧面佐证了中国股市过度投机行为的存在。     

以人民为中心的发展思想研究现状与展望

自党的十八届五中全会提出坚持“以人民为中心的发展思想”以来,专家学者从价值意蕴、科学内涵、理论生成、与其他理论的关系,以及贯彻落实等方面进行了研究并取得丰富的研究成果。但目前的研究也存一些不足,未来研究应坚持问题导向,注重解决人民群众的实际问题;拓宽研究视野,增强研究深度和广度;加强对领导干部如何践行以人民为中心的发展思想的研究,使得以人民为中心的发展思想进头脑、促实践、出成效。     

参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响——基于CHARLS 2015数据的实证分析

基于CHARLS 2015数据,采用倾向得分匹配法实证分析参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响。研究发现:参加医疗保险对农村居民的日常活动能力和自评健康影响不显著,参加医疗保险对农村居民认知能力具有显著的正向影响。据此提出,应进一步提升社会医疗保险保障水平、扩大社会医疗保险保障范围、促进商业医疗保险有序发展、推进"三医"高效协同联动等,以充分发挥医疗保险的健康保障功能,从而进一步提升参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的正向影响。     

The importance of cross‐disciplinary scientific engagement in the development of quantitative procedures for aggregate safety assessments

Recent guidance on safety monitoring during drug development, issued by regulatory authorities in the United States and European Union, indicate a shift in focus towards aggregate safety monitoring and scientific evaluation of integrated safety data. The call for program‐level reviews of accumulating safety data, including from ongoing studies, provides an opportunity to leverage the scientific expertise and medical judgment of safety management teams with (a) a multidisciplinary approach, (b) quantitative frameworks to measure level of evidence, and (c) assessments that are product‐specific and driven by medical judgment. A multidisciplinary team, regularly reviewing aggregate safety data throughout the development program, is vital not only for early signal detection but also for generating a better understanding of the accumulating data and context needed for decreasing false alarms.     

Assessing the market values of soccer players – a robust analysis of data from German 1. and 2. Bundesliga

The paper examines to what extent a player's market value depends on his skills. Therefore, a data set covering 28 performance measures and the market values of about 493 players from 1. and 2. German Bundesliga is analysed. Applying robust analysis techniques, we are able to robustly estimate market values of soccer players. The results show (1) that there are significantly underrated and overrated players and (2) that a player's affiliation to a certain team may contribute to his market value. We conclude that a club's reputation affects the market values of its players and that star players are in tendency overrated.     

基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为分析

本文主要基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为进行研究，假设拍卖中可能存在欺诈型和诚实型两种卖家，其中欺诈行为有概率发生在第二价格拍卖中：欺诈型卖方冒充竞拍者递交仅次于最高价的报价从而获得额外收益。两种卖家根据各自效用选择拍卖形式：第一价格或者第二价格。而竞买者将卖者的选择作为信号，更新对卖方类型的判断，然后制定报价策略。这是一个买卖方信号交叉影响的过程。考虑到拍卖过程中买方价值相关性，本文在建立模型中参考了关联价值原理。针对该模型进行分析，得出了不同情况下的买卖方策略，并且研究了买方报价、买方判断、卖方收益三者之间的关系。文中利用贝叶斯公式对双方的策略选择问题进行预测，与单纯的概率分布方法相比，更具实践价值。     

Value drivers of social businesses: A business model perspective

Hybrid organizational forms that combine commercial and welfare institutional logics play an increasingly important role in addressing the grand societal challenges we face today. Building on the literatures on hybrid organizations and social business models, we explore the characteristics of social businesses from a business model perspective. This study seeks to better understand the particularities and value drivers of hybrid social purpose in contrast to purely commercial business models. We follow a grounded theory approach and our findings are based on interview data from 17 social business firms. Building on social businesses' identified particularities, we propose four value drivers of social business models: 1) responsible efficiency, 2) impact complementarities, 3) shared values, and 4) integration novelties. We link our findings to the literature, contributing new insights into social businesses models and implications for practitioners.     

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk‐Averse and Risk‐Seeking Individuals

This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage‐risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61 and 8.68 million dollars. The results using smoking behavior as a proxy for risk attitudes are consistent with previous findings. However, directly measuring risk aversion corrects the wage‐risk tradeoff estimation bias in the opposite direction. The results are robust to other observed measures of risk aversion such as drinking behavior and stock investments. Results suggest that, consistent with the literature that connects smoking behavior with labor market outcomes, smoking status could be capturing poor health productivity effect in addition to purely risk preferences.     

唐代御史厅壁记写作的文学与文献学价值——以李华､柳宗元厅壁记写作为例

“厅壁记”是镌刻在古代衙门的墙壁上,记述历代职官沿革、制度得失、官员迁转等,具有警示教育意义的一种文体.唐代御史的厅壁记写作重视“法”的作用,有些甚至上升为国家意志,与粉饰太平的馆阁文学大不相同,是中国法制史上浓墨重彩的一笔.唐代御史的厅壁记写作有着独特的文学价值:(1)李华、柳宗元的诸多厅壁记均用散体文写就,简洁真切,议论精警,已开中唐古文运动的先声.(2)唐代御史在厅壁记创作中注入鲜明的主体意识,语言辛辣,发人深思.唐代御史厅壁记的文献学价值表现在:一是订补现存史志文献之阙,促进唐史研究的深入;二是有助于对唐代文学发生背景的了解.唐代御史厅壁记因观览人数较多,其公众宣传、社会传播、舆论导向之作用亦不可忽视.