Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

论阜新经济发展的外向性

文章从市场化的程度、贸易和经济的发展、开放梯度战略以及区域经济布局这四个方面剖析了阜新与经济发达地区的巨大差距及产生差距的原因,阐述了阜新的经济转型、产业结构调整及市场化发育与外向经济的依存关系,特别是从引进项目的基础工作、制定相关优惠政策及提高法律意识等方面,指明了阜新进一步对外开放需要解决和注意的问题。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

基于移动代理的新型IDS维护更新机制设计

提出了一种基于移动代理的新型分布式入侵检测系统。该系统是针对广域网环境专门设计的,数据的处理通过各节点所设置的代理来进行分布式计算,不仅能实现全网络范围内的入侵检测功能,具有良好的可移植性;而且对网络系统和主机的资源占用较低,减少了出现网络瓶颈的可能。还建立了移动代理的新型分布式入侵检测系统的体系结构和理论分析模型,并讨论了该系统的维护更新机制。     

手机短信诈骗及治理对策

随着手机短信业务的发展，利用手机短信进行诈骗的现象也频繁发生。短信诈骗行为的泛滥，不仅严重侵犯了人们的财产权益，而且破坏了正常的社会经济秩序。为有效预防和遏制手机短信诈骗，应强化监管和打击，建立和完善手机号码实名制和储蓄实名制，加强宣传教育，多管齐下，进行综合治理。     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

MAS环境下实现Agent交互协作的关键技术

讨论了MAS环境下实现Agent交互协作的关键性问题。在分析Agent协同设计目标的基础上,将遗传算法应用于子任务的调度,提高了Agent协同工作的效率。应用Agent的通信语言建立了一个基于知识查询与操纵语言的Agent通信模型,通过引入Agent位置追踪和Agent消息缓存机制解决了Agent移动过程中遇到的位置追踪和通信失效问题。     

移动多媒体技术发展与AVS-M标准

本文在分析移动多媒体市场发展现状和特征以及归纳总结国内外移动多媒体业务种类,移动多媒体业务的关键技术及标准的基础上,介绍了AVS-M标准的主要内容和特点。AVS-M是我国拥有自主知识产权、面向新一代移动通信的音视频编码推荐标准。最后,作者对AVS-M标准的制订提出了几点建议。     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.