An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

幼儿自然色彩教育：价值、目标与对策

大自然是色彩的宝库，是幼儿自然色彩教育的最好课堂。幼儿自然色彩教育的根本目的不是掌握色彩知识或技巧， 而是通过大自然丰富多彩的色彩美激发幼儿对自然美的敏感性、好奇心，培养幼儿的审美素质，萌发幼儿热爱自然的情感，培 养幼儿健全的生命意识。幼儿自然色彩教育应让幼儿面对活的、灵动的自然色彩，在自然情境中唤醒幼儿的色彩敏锐性，激 活幼儿对美的感受力，让幼儿在一花一草的色彩变化中体悟一种生命滋养另一种生命的神奇，感悟生命的真谛，从而学会感 恩自然。     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

刘庆邦:逝去的纯真年代

刘庆邦柔美小说主要有两种情感脉络,纯真的情感和温柔细腻、含蓄委婉的情感表达方式,小说中忧伤的情调和自然的境界,蕴涵的审美情趣和审美理想切合90年代兴起的怀旧思潮,表现了作者对抗工业文明、呼唤诗性生命的批判立场。对于生态失衡的现代社会和人的精神处境,刘庆邦的柔美小说是一缕来自田野的风,它的清新足以澡雪精神,吹散物欲膨胀的燥热,召唤久违的自然之美重新回到人类的心田。     

所为非所想?农户风险管理意愿与行为的悖离分析

实现农户风险管理意愿与行为统一是降低农业风险对农户农业生产负面影响的重要途径。利用2018年东北三省和湖北省种植大户的调查数据,从自然风险与市场风险两方面,对农户风险管理的意愿、行为及其悖离进行分析,并探究形成悖离的原因。研究发现：对于自然风险,大部分农户使用了有效的风险管理工具,但风险管理意愿不高;农户的市场风险管理行为极为少见,与之相悖的是,农户具有较高的市场风险管理意愿。结果表明,风险管理实际行为控制、风险管理执行意愿和风险管理外部环境是影响农户自然风险管理意愿与行为悖离的主要因素;此外,农户对农业保险缺乏了解,以及目前农业保险存在的不足也是导致此悖离的重要原因;风险管理执行意愿和风险管理外部环境是影响农户市场风险管理意愿与行为悖离的主要因素。此外,农户获取信息渠道不足,对市场风险管理工具缺乏了解,甚至存在明显的误解与不信任也是导致农户市场风险管理意愿与行为悖离的重要原因。因此,为了有效实现农户风险管理意愿与行为的统一,应健全农业保险的推广机制,加强市场风险管理的宣传,扩大“保险+期货”的试点,发挥新型主体的带动作用。     

自然灾害冲击对农村家庭非农就业选择的影响

利用国家重点研发计划重点专项2018年调研数据,构建了自然灾害冲击对农村家庭非农就业选择影响的理论框架,采用Probit模型验证了自然灾害冲击对农户家庭成员非农就业选择的影响。研究发现:自然灾害冲击对农户家庭成员非农就业选择有显著正向影响,这一正向影响会随着自然灾害强度的增加而不断提升;人力资本和社会资本的嵌入,会弱化自然灾害对农户家庭成员非农就业选择的影响,信贷约束却会强化这一影响。这意味着现阶段面对自然灾害冲击,农户家庭成员应积极尝试非农就业,不仅能够促进资本存量重构,还可以缓解家庭生计压力,增加农户家庭收入,避免农户家庭因灾致贫。     

《了不起的盖茨比》中威尔逊形象的生态解读

自2007年起,从生态批评的角度对《了不起的盖茨比》进行分析,逐渐成为学者研究的一个热门方向,然而绝大多数学者将目光集中在主要人物上,忽略了另一位极具代表性的小人物——威尔逊。威尔逊这一人物形象具有诸多意义,仅从生态角度来说,他便折射出了“爵士时代”下人与自然、人与社会以及人与自身的关系。通过利用生态批评这一理论工具,从自然生态、社会生态和精神生态这三个角度出发,对威尔逊的人物形象进行分析探讨,以期能够透过对于威尔逊的解读,得到对“爵士时代”中的人与自然、社会以及自身关系的更全面和深刻的认识。     

“基督教化的斯多亚主义”与功利主义精神——论弗兰西斯·哈奇森的自然情感理论

休谟和斯密的光芒有时竟遮蔽了苏格兰启蒙运动的全景,以致弗兰西斯·哈奇森的思想一直未受学界充分的重视。韦伯为解释新教伦理与资本主义精神的关系,考察了"天职"这一概念;同样,弗兰西斯·哈奇森在"基督教化的斯多亚主义"伦理与功利主义精神之间也完成了一个切换:提出了以自然性情(包括道德感在内)这一新的人学建构理论。"基督教化的斯多亚主义"伦理是苏格兰启蒙运动思想家们的基本特征。从"遵循自然"到"遵循自然情感"的新的心灵构造、自然情感和人的社会本性学说,为从注重自控与内在自由的斯多亚主义向动机论的功利主义之公共福利与进取精神的过渡提供了基础。