Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

A qualitative investigation of risk and protective factors for interpersonal violence in adults on the autism spectrum

Abstract

Individuals on the autism spectrum are at an increased risk of experiencing violence. This study sought to understand the opinions of adults on the spectrum regarding potential risk and protective factors for interpersonal violence. Twenty-two adults (12 men; 18 to 53 years of age) participated in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed. The results of the qualitative analysis identified individual and contextual risk and protective factors. Protective themes focused on individual needs (awareness of the self and the environment, interpersonal knowledge/skills, skill building strategies) and supportive contexts (benefits of a trusted person, advocates, fostering acceptance and inclusion). There is a need for strategies to decrease the vulnerability to, and the impact of, interpersonal violence. Individuals on the spectrum have the capacity to provide important information regarding safety promotion and risk factors for interpersonal violence, and their expertise should play a role in guiding efforts that promote safety.     

Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems

The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety‐related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety‐related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to establish a practical guide for railway safety authorities. The methodology is based on the flowchart formalism used in CSM (common safety method) European regulation. It starts with the use of quantitative safety requirements, particularly tolerable hazard rates (THR). THR apportioning rules are applied. On the one hand, the rules are related to classical logical combinations of safety‐related functions preventing hazard occurrence. On the other hand, to take into account technical conditions (last safety weak link, functional dependencies, technological complexity, etc.), specific rules implicitly used in existing practices are defined for readjusting some THR values. SIL allocation process based on apportioned and validated THR values is finally illustrated through the example of “emergency brake” subsystems. Some specific SIL allocation rules are also defined and illustrated.     

Strategies and cues adolescents use to assess the age of an online stranger

A common risk among adolescents is sexual solicitation, in which an adolescent is asked to provide sexual information, engage in sexual talk, or in sexual activities. Although scholars increasingly address this topic from an intrapersonal perspective, there is little attention to factors of language use and message content. In two focus group studies, we investigated whether adolescent girls consider themselves capable of assessing whether an online stranger is an adult or a peer, the extent to which adolescent girls actually succeed in making this assessment, the strategies they apply to do so, and the content- and language-related cues focused on. Our findings suggest that most of the adolescent girls are confident in their ability to assess whether the stranger is a peer or an adult with possible sexual intentions. However, we also found that only 43% were able to correctly make this assessment. Most of the adolescents seem to apply the passive strategy of uncertainty reduction: They scan the profile page of the stranger, check contact information, and the profile picture. They may choose to apply the interactive strategy to find out more about the online stranger. Important content-related cues that alarm adolescent girls are: ignoring personal questions, showing an exaggerated amount of interest, acting as a friend, and being sexually oriented. Language cues mentioned related to word usage, abbreviations, sentence length, and tone.     

Digital crime,trauma, and abuse: Internet safety and cyber risks for adolescents and emerging adults in the 21st century

ABSTRACT

The shift in the technology landscape has altered the technology ecosystem of adolescents and emerging adults in the 21^st century. Yet, with greater use of digital gadgets comes greater mental health risks that technological advancement brings. This study provides a narrative review of contemporary cyber risks faced by adolescents and emerging adults. In particular, this review will cover dangers and effects of cyber-bullying, social media, cyber-dating violence, sextortion, sexting, revenge porn, online dating, catfishing, and scammers, with an emphasis to raise awareness and encourage proactive efforts dedicated to address these social concerns as the digital era continues to evolve.     

The importance of cross‐disciplinary scientific engagement in the development of quantitative procedures for aggregate safety assessments

Recent guidance on safety monitoring during drug development, issued by regulatory authorities in the United States and European Union, indicate a shift in focus towards aggregate safety monitoring and scientific evaluation of integrated safety data. The call for program‐level reviews of accumulating safety data, including from ongoing studies, provides an opportunity to leverage the scientific expertise and medical judgment of safety management teams with (a) a multidisciplinary approach, (b) quantitative frameworks to measure level of evidence, and (c) assessments that are product‐specific and driven by medical judgment. A multidisciplinary team, regularly reviewing aggregate safety data throughout the development program, is vital not only for early signal detection but also for generating a better understanding of the accumulating data and context needed for decreasing false alarms.     

Risking safety and rights: online sex work,crimes and ‘blended safety repertoires’

It has been well established that those working in the sex industry are at various risks of violence and crime depending on where they sell sex and the environments in which they work. What sociological research has failed to address is how crime and safety have been affected by the dynamic changing nature of sex work given the dominance of the internet and digital technologies, including the development of new markets such as webcamming. This paper reports the most comprehensive findings on the internet‐based sex market in the UK demonstrating types of crimes experienced by internet‐based sex workers and the strategies of risk management that sex workers adopt, building on our article in the British Journal of Sociology in 2007. We present the concept of ‘blended safety repertoires’ to explain how sex workers, particularly independent escorts, are using a range of traditional techniques alongside digitally enabled strategies to keep themselves safe. We contribute a deeper understanding of why sex workers who work indoors rarely report crimes to the police, reflecting the dilemmas experienced. Our findings highlight how legal and policy changes which seek to ban online adult services advertising and sex work related content within online spaces would have direct impact on the safety strategies online sex workers employ and would further undermine their safety. These findings occur in a context where aspects of sex work are quasi‐criminalized through the brothel keeping legislation. We conclude that the legal and policy failure to recognize sex work as a form of employment, contributes to the stigmatization of sex work and prevents individuals working together. Current UK policy disallows a framework for employment laws and health and safety standards to regulate sex work, leaving sex workers in the shadow economy, their safety at risk in a quasi‐legal system. In light of the strong evidence that the internet makes sex work safer, we argue that decriminalisation as a rights based model of regulation is most appropriate.     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

论近代川边治理与国防安全：从赵尔丰到刘文辉

风云激荡的近代“川边”，历任主政者的川边治理成效殊异：赵尔丰籍“平康三策”，锐意进取，开拓出广阔的川边境域，成功践行“固川保藏”方略。尹昌衡藉个人英雄主义维持短暂的绚烂；其后走马灯式的镇守使无法掌控川边局势，失地溃败；颇具政治韬略的刘文辉，妥善处理民族关系，稳固川边，促使西康成功建省。34年的川边治理为现代西南边疆治理留下了鲜活的经验教训，川滇藏结合部需要新的边疆治理统筹。