针对生物识别信息的刑法保护:现实境遇与完善路径——以四川“人脸识别案”为切入点

当前生物识别信息在我国社会中的运用呈现逐年递增的趋势.生物识别信息具备本体特殊性和社会特殊性,这决定了其具备与普通公民个人信息不同的重要性,应受到刑法的特殊保护,但我国既定刑事立法对生物识别信息并未进行任何形式的特殊保护.可运用实质解释的方法,在不违反罪刑法定原则的前提下,充分利用两高《解释》第5条中第1款第10项和第2款第4项这两个兜底条款,将"侵犯生物识别信息5条及以上"认定为"情节严重",将"侵犯生物识别信息50条及以上"认定为"情节特别严重",由此降低针对生物识别信息原本的入罪和法定刑升格的数量,最终实现对生物识别信息的特殊刑法保护.     

基层公务员职业认同特征及其对工作绩效与离职倾向的影响研究

基层公务员的职业认同对公务员队伍建设和推进国家治理能力现代化有着重要的意义。本文通过对760名基层公务员的问卷调查发现：基层公务员职业认同包括职业行为投入、职业发展认同和职业价值认同三个维度，呈现出以价值认同为核心、行为投入为外层、发展认同居中的圈层结构；基层公务员职业认同接近较高水平，但职业发展认同较低；不同类型基层公务员职业认同呈现出一定差异，其中青年公务员的职业认同显著低于中老年公务员，低职级公务员较高职级公务员职业认同更低。进一步分析发现，基层公务员职业认同能正向预测工作绩效，职业认同能负向预测离职倾向。在此基础上，本研究提出提升基层公务员职业认同的相关对策建议。     

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit

In the quest to model various phenomena, the foundational importance of parameter identifiability to sound statistical modeling may be less well appreciated than goodness of fit. Identifiability concerns the quality of objective information in data to facilitate estimation of a parameter, while nonidentifiability means there are parameters in a model about which the data provide little or no information. In purely empirical models where parsimonious good fit is the chief concern, nonidentifiability (or parameter redundancy) implies overparameterization of the model. In contrast, nonidentifiability implies underinformativeness of available data in mechanistically derived models where parameters are interpreted as having strong practical meaning. This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose–response of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics approval to ensure generated data can yield strong objective information about all mechanistic parameters of interest. When Bayesian methods are applied to a nonidentifiable model, the subjective prior effectively fabricates information about any parameters about which the data carry no objective information. Finally, structural nonidentifiability can lead to spurious models that fit data well but can yield severely flawed inferences and predictions when they are interpreted or used inappropriately.     

Understanding the Ecological Validity of Relying Practice as a Basis for Risk Identification

Understanding the reliability of hazardous organizations and their protective systems is central to understanding the risk they produce. Work on “high reliability organization” has done much to illuminate the conditions in which social organization becomes reliable in highly demanding conditions. But risk depends just as much on how relying entities do their relying as it does on the reliability of the entities they rely on. Patterns of relying are often opaque in sociotechnical systems, and processes of relying and being relied on are mutually influencing in complex ways, so the relationship between relying and risk may not be at all obvious. This study was an attempt to study relying as a social practice, in particular analyzing how it had ecological validity in a social organization—how practice was responsive to the conditions in which it took place. This involved observational fieldwork and inductive, qualitative analysis on an offshore oil and gas production platform that was nearing the end of its design life and undergoing refurbishment. The analysis produced four main categories of ecological validity: responsiveness to formal organization, responsiveness to situational contingency, responsiveness to information asymmetry, and responsiveness to sociomateriality. This ecological validity of relying practice should be a primary focus of risk identification, assessing how relying can become mismatched to reliability in certain ways, both when relying practice is responsive to circumstances and when it is not.     

一类稀疏投资组合双层参数估计模型及其应用

带基约束的投资组合问题是近年来投资组合领域的热点问题，但是参数不确定性直接影响了模型的效果。带基约束的投资组合问题所涉及的参数不仅包括以往研究认为非常重要的预期收益率，还包括控制投资组合规模的稀疏度，尤其是最优稀疏度估计方面的专门研究还十分匮乏。为了使带基约束的投资组合模型更好地为投资决策服务，本文从投资者效用出发，用双层规划的思想构建了带基约束的投资组合双层参数估计模型。然后根据模型的特点，设计了无导数优化算法框架，并基于ADMM对算法子问题进行求解。本文实验针对真实的市场数据给出了预期收益率和最优稀疏度的估计，接着通过与等权重策略和含上下界约束的均值-方差模型进行比较，说明了模型及算法的有效性和实用性。最后，将本文提出的双层参数估计模型推广到了更一般的形式。     

基于违约鉴别能力组合赋权的小企业信用评级——基于小型工业企业样本数据的实证分析

信用评级是衡量债务违约的可能性,因此评级体系要有违约风险识别能力,能够将违约客户和非违约客户显著地区分开.通过逼近理想点的思路,构建多目标规划模型求解最优的组合权重,并对中国某区域性商业银行1 814笔小型工业企业贷款进行实证分析.本文的创新与特色一是以非违约企业的数据到正理想点的距离代数和最小为第一个目标函数,以违约企业的数据到负理想点的距离代数和最小为第二个目标函数,构建多目标非线性规划模型进行组合赋权,在满足了“非违约企业的评价得分越高、违约企业的评价得分越低”要求的目标下得到最优的组合赋权的权重系数,使赋权结果保证了评级模型能够将违约企业与非违约企业最大地区分开.改变了现有研究的组合赋权脱离评价目的的弊端,改变了现有研究中违约与非违约企业的评价得分存在大量重叠、对两类企业的区分能力低的弊端.二是通过检验“违约企业的信用得分是否显著小于非违约企业的信用得分”的J-T非参数检验,验证信用评价模型的合理性.改变现有研究忽略对信用评价模型的合理性进行验证的弊端.三是经过实证,发现本研究建立的组合赋权模型的违约鉴别能力(Z=5.546)要高于现有研究的两种常用组合赋权模型、即基于方差最大的组合赋权(Z=4.298)和基于偏差最小的组合赋权(Z=5.182)     

Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

自媒体时代高校社会主义核心价值观教育研究

随着自媒体时代的兴起,高校培育和践行社会主义核心价值观,应全面把握和深入分析自媒体时代的特征及其影响,分析在自媒体时代的冲击下,高校社会主义核心价值观教育所面临的机遇和挑战,探讨如何用多维度策略推进高校社会主义核心价值观的政治认同。