城镇化、工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响研究——来自重庆37个县(区)面板数据的证据

文章基于2000—2016年重庆37个县（区）面板数据，使用序列DEA方法测算了重庆农业全要素生产率变动，在此基础上探讨了重庆农业全要素生产率增长的时间演变，并从理论和实证层面系统考察了城镇化和工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。结果表明：首先，2000—2016年间重庆市农业全要素生产率呈上升趋势，2007年后重庆市农业全要素生产率增长更为明显，并且重庆市各地区呈现出明显的空间不平衡性。其次，动态面板模型的实证结果表明城镇化对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著正向影响，工业化对农业全要素生产率增长也具有显著正向影响。最后，研究还发现基础设施、教育水平以及金融发展程度对农业全要素生产率增长均具有显著正向影响，而产业结构对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著负向影响。     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Catch-up as a Survival Strategy in the Solar Power Industry

We evaluate the strategies of the emerging market firms in the context of nascent industries. We use the Indian solar power industry as the empirical setting, against the backdrop of the evolution of the global industry, While in traditional industries emerging market firms learn from advanced economy multinational enterprises (MNEs) and slowly upgrade their capabilities, in the intensely competitive environment of nascent innovative industries, emerging market firms are exposed to global competition in their home market right from the early years. This shortens their catch-up clock. As a result, their long-term survival depends on their ability to catch-up fast, both in output and innovation capabilities. In the solar power industry, we find that innovations stem, in the main, from advanced economy firms. Further, Chinese firms are beginning to move from cost-based imitation to innovation. In contrast, with a few key exceptions, most firms in the Indian solar industry remain locked within a narrow niche of downstream site-based installation. Their operations are opportunistic, short term, and without specific catch-up goals, a scenario that does not bode well for the industry's future in India.     

从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

On the power of goodness-of-fit tests for the exponential distribution under progressive Type-II censoring

The aim of this article is to review existing goodness-of-fit tests for the exponential distribution under progressive Type-II censoring and to provide some new ideas and adjustments. In particular, we consider two-parameter exponentially distributed random variables and adapt the proposed test procedures to our scenario if necessary. Then, we compare their power by an extensive simulation study. Furthermore, we propose five new test procedures that provide reasonable alternatives to those already known.     

Some count-based nonparametric tests for circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution

In this paper, we revisit the problem of testing of the hypothesis of circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution. We propose some nonparametric tests based on sector counts. These include tests based on chi-square goodness-of-fit test, the classical likelihood ratio, mean deviation, and the range. The proposed tests are easy to implement and the exact null distributions for small sample sizes of the test statistics are obtained. Two examples with small and large data sets are given to illustrate the application of the tests proposed. For small and moderate sample sizes, the performances of the proposed tests are evaluated using empirical powers (empirical sizes are also reported). Also, we evaluate the performance of these count-based tests with adaptations of several well-known tests such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type tests, tests based on kernel density estimator, and the Wilcoxon-type tests. It is observed that among the count-based tests the likelihood ratio test performs better.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

一把尺子如何“量到底”:基层治理中的制度硬化——以一个城市更新试点项目为例

城市更新中日益增长的社会压力使基层政府产生制度硬化的需求，但持续的高压体制又使其延续制度弹性的逻辑，两者间张力凸显，构成当前的治理困境。本文通过对一个试点项目中制度硬化实践的观察提出核心问题：权力运作空间如何在日益增强的规范性约束下得以再生产。本案例中，制度硬化被拆分为“结果硬化”和“过程硬化”两部分，前者标识着鲜明的刚性边界，后者则暗中预留出弹性空间。通过外部条件硬化、让步规则硬化、加压底线硬化这三重机制，基层政府在与社会的互动中由表及里地拓展了硬化原则背后的边界，使权力运作空间以一种更为正式化、制度化、组织化的形式不断生产出来，展现出更深层、隐秘的治理技术及国家与社会的相互形塑过程。     

Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy: Towards a “new” cult of personality

This study examined how Turkey uses social media as a tool for public diplomacy and how the state’s soft-power efforts have recently changed on the global stage. The researchers constructed a dataset of 2769 Twitter posts by the Turkish government’s most influential public diplomacy accounts. The analyses revealed that the focus of Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy has become concentrated on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and is thematically focused on the political values embodied by the Turkish president. The findings suggest that public diplomacy remains to be the diplomacy of the government, not of the public, and social media is used as just another tool for propaganda, not as a means of engagement with foreign publics. Further, the findings indicate the emergence of a “new” cult of personality in public diplomacy and point out the instrumental role of social media in changing the dynamics of leader-follower relationship. The study contributes to public relations theory and practice by advancing the burgeoning public diplomacy scholarship at the intersection of social media and relational approaches.