期权“净购买压力”的隐含信息

使用50ETF期权的高频数据，研究“净购买压力”指标对指数方向性和波动性变化的预测能力，并比较不同加总方法、看涨看跌、不同在值程度的期权以及非对称的“净购买压力”指标隐含信息的差异性.本文发现，50ETF期权“净购买压力”指标隐含着标的指数方向性和波动性的变化信息.在预测指数变化方向时，Delta加总的“净购买压力”隐含的信息已包含在简单加总的指标之中，看涨、看跌期权以及不同在值程度的期权在信息含量上存在差异性.在预测指数波动性时，使用简单加总和使用Gamma、Vega加总的“净购买压力”指标均隐含着未来市场的波动率信息，平值和虚值期权的“净购买压力”指标对波动率具有更强的预测能力.同时，“净购买压力”的隐含信息存在非对称特征.     

冲动性购买情境下消费者后悔影响的实证研究

采用情境投射与普通问卷相结合的多样化研究方法,探讨冲动性购买负面后果的影响以及不同归因的消费者受影响程度是否不同。结果表明,如果第一次冲动性购买行为带来负面后果,再次遇到类似情境时消费者的购买冲动性和认知评价都会受到较大影响,他们往往降低自身的购买冲动性,倾向于不再购买,并且对下一次购买具有负面的认知评价。同时,不同归因的消费者对再次冲动性购买的认知评价存在差异。     

Technical Note – Pricing Below Cost Under Exchange‐Rate Risk

Pricing below cost is often classified as “dumping” in international trade and as “predatory pricing” in local markets. It is legally prohibited from practice because of earlier findings that it leads to predatory behavior by either eliminating competition or stealing market share. This study shows that a stochastic exchange rate can create incentives for a profit‐minded monopoly firm to set price below marginal cost. Our result departs from earlier findings because the optimal pricing decision is based on a rational behavior that does not exhibit any malicious intent against the competition to be considered as violating anti‐trust laws. The finding is a robust result, because our analysis demonstrates that this behavior occurs under various settings such as when the firm (i) is risk‐averse, (ii) can postpone prices until after exchange rates are realized, (iii) is capable of manufacturing in multiple countries, and (iv) operates under demand uncertainty in addition to the random exchange rate.     

广义ATO下基于多种团购模型的供应链协调

针对由多个供应商、单个制造商和零售商所组成的广义按订单装配式供应链，在上游多个供应商不确定的零部件（或商品）供应以及下游客户不确定的需求的环境下，首先分析基本模型中团购前后的零售商和制造商的利润变化，然后提出了团购的标准模型和协调模型，并比较三种不同的团购模型对各成员以及全局供应链绩效的影响。通过数学推导证明和仿真数据算例分析，结果表明：零售商自发的团购基本模型总是对制造商有利，而对零售商的好处是有限的；由制造商主导的团购标准模型在满足一定条件时是优于团购基本模型的，但有使得零售商甚至制造商自身受到损失的可能；而集中决策下的团购协调模型能够提升全局供应链的期望利润，实现渠道的帕累托改善，但协调的效果会受到团购客户组成结构的限制。     

中国股指期货对股票市场的流动性影响

随着中国股指期货的推出,股指期货对股票市场流动性的影响又成为一个新的课题。文章运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、Granger因果检验分析了中国股指期货对股票市场的流动性影响,检测了流动性溢价理论在中国股指期货市场的应用。最终得出结论,股票市场的买卖价差和期货现货基差之间存在双向的因果关系,即股票市场的流动性波动对投资股指期货的预期收益变化有重要的作用。     

房地产品牌与情感决策消费者购买行为分析

本文以情感决策消费者的购房过程为研究对象,在论述体验房地产的来源、类型基础上,对房地产品牌与情感决策消费者购房行为作用机理进行分析,并与理性决策消费者购房过程进行对比。     

Compulsive buying: Does it matter how it’s measured?

The primary purpose of the present study is to compare and contrast the validity and reliability of the Faber and O’Guinn [Faber, R. J., & O’Guinn, T. C. (1992). A clinical screener for compulsive buying. Journal of Consumer Research, 19, 459–469] and Edwards [Edwards, E. A. (1993). Development of a new scale for measuring compulsive buying behavior. Financial Counseling and Planning, 4, 67–84] compulsive buying scales within a nomological network. Although both psychometric scales were designed to measure compulsive buying, the two instruments appear to be distinct in how they conceptualize the compulsive buying phenomenon. The seven-item compulsive buying scale developed by Faber and O’Guinn (1992) is the most commonly used scale for measuring compulsive buying. The Edwards scale in contrast is not as well-known. Empirical results of the present study suggest that the two compulsive buying scales may be capturing either separate constructs, or different dimensions of the same compulsive buying construct. Edwards (1993) compulsive buying scale, for instance, is correlated with materialism but not with attitudes toward money while the Faber and O’Guinn scale is not correlated with materialism but is correlated with attitudes toward money. The present study’s results suggest, among other things, that it does in fact appear to matter how compulsive buying is measured.     

窃取、收买、非法提供信用卡信息罪的刑法分析

窃取、收买、非法提供信用卡信息罪中的信用卡信息是指信用卡本身所承载的信息。对实践中出现的利用虚假的银行客户服务电话套取持卡人的信用卡信息资料的行为,不宜认定为“窃取”。“非法提供”是指将自己掌握、了解的他人信用卡信息传授给他人的行为。采用侵占、抢夺、抢劫、毁坏等方式取得信用卡信息的行为也不宜认定为本罪。由于本罪是选择性罪名,其犯罪形态的认定也应区别对待。本罪与出售、非法提供公民个人信息罪,非法侵入计算机信息系统罪,妨害信用卡管理罪以及非法获取计算机信息系统数据罪的界分,应从犯罪客体、客观方面予以把握。     

洪宪帝制前袁世凯与部属的关系--兼论袁世凯的用人术

袁世凯知人善用,礼贤下士,不拘一格地提拔和笼络了一批政治、经济、军事、外交方面的人才,使之成为自己的部属,辅佐其统治。但实质上他用人是以利益关系为转移的,靠金钱利诱和个人交情等手段来笼络,一旦其部属与其利益不一致或危及到他的利益,就对部属行排挤和猜忌之术,而不管以前他们之间的关系是多么密切和融洽。袁世凯的用人术有开明的一面,同时又有浓厚的狭隘性。由此还可以透视出袁世凯集团的团结是基于一种纯利益关系,袁世凯集团最终分裂亦肇因于此。     

Optimal pricing for group buying with network effects

In this paper, we analyze online group-pricing mechanisms for sellers and compare them with the option of selling only to individuals. We formulate the demand for group buying and individual buying (GB and IB, respectively) based on the utility a consumer attains from each environment considering two specific types of externalities unique to our problem. First, we assume that consumers receive positive “network effects” from GB, i.e., they obtain utility from shopping with others because of information exchange and collective support. Second, they encounter a negative externality of group buying because of inconvenience costs and delays in receiving the products. The two types of externalities lead to distorted demand, which in turn affects prices and profits. We analyze the optimal and equilibrium strategies for a seller operating in monopoly, duopoly, and multiple-firm competition. We derive the equilibrium strategies and show the existence of a Nash Equilibrium under competition of multiple firms. In addition, we show that positive network effects from group buying often outweigh the negative externalities arising from costs.