Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

中国出版现代化进程探析

纸和印刷术的发明,说明中国是较早和较有实力实现出版现代化的国家。但是,中国的纸和印刷术输出后,出版技术一直徘徊不前。清末民初出版技术的返销现象,揭示出阻碍中国出版现代化的原因,一是中国封建传统下的政策导向影响;二是以农立国、安于现状、不思进取的中国小农经济形态使然;三是我国编辑职业化滞后,缺乏内动力等等。     

编辑法律规范论略

编辑法律规范由涉及编辑工作的一系列法律、法令、条例、标准等有关条款规定构成 ,具有明显的权威性和强制性特点。作为精神生产活动 ,编辑工作应严格遵守《宪法》及党和国家的各项方针政策 ,坚持正确的政治方向 ,坚持三审稿件制度 ,保守党和国家秘密 ;要充分尊重并保护作者的著作权 ,准确把握对他人作品的合理使用。遵守编辑法律规范 ,关键在于编辑人员树立自觉、牢固的法律意识 ,学习并掌握足够的法律知识。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

论物权变动与物权公示的分离

物权公示的对象是物权,而不是物权变动。物权公示只是在物权已经发生变动以后,将新的静态的物权归属状况表征出来,与物权变动是否发生效力没有关系。物权变动和物权公示不是一个层面的问题,两者所实现的制度目标、追求的制度价值、考量的相关因素是不一样的。物权变动和物权公示可以分离,并且应当分离,这一点在动产和不动产上都得到了明显的体现。而物权变动模式不过是在当事人没有作出特殊约定的情况下,为双方当事人之间的物权变动确定一个科学而又合理的时间基准。     

光绪刊《湘潭县志》评介

光绪刊《湘潭县志》出版后,得到了李肖聃、梁启超等大师的赞赏,但也有人对书中的史料等方面的问题提出了批评。我们今天继承这份文化遗产,不能笼统说它好或坏,应实事求是的具体的分析其好坏得失,吸收其优点,克服其不足。     

科技期刊的信息工作

阐述了信息工作在科技期刊办刊实践中的地位,归纳出信息工作的内容,即作者信息、读者市场信息、审稿人信息、报道领域的动态信息,以及学术出版业内信息等,并指出科技期刊应通过日常工作、学术会议、互联网络等渠道发布和收集信息。     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.