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1.
The U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk can result from climate‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged advanced supervised learning theory to identify the key predictors of climate‐sensitive demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Our analysis indicates that variations in mean dew point temperature is the common major risk factor across all the three sectors. We have also conducted a statistical sensitivity analysis to assess the variability in the projected demand as a function of the key climate risk factor. We then propose the use of scenario‐based heat maps as a tool to communicate the inadequacy risks to stakeholders and decisionmakers. While we use the state of Ohio as a case study, our proposed approach is equally applicable to all other states.  相似文献   
2.
进化心理学的研究显示,女性更喜欢那些拥有男性化面孔及特定体味、身体对称、外表健康的男性,并且这种偏好会随着女性的月经周期而发生转变。在排卵期表现出明显的男性化偏好,而在其他时段偏好不明显,该效应被称为"周期转换效应"。通过梳理三种主流的解释视角,即基因选择假设、激素刺激假设和排卵引起知觉偏差的假设,结合"周期转换效应"遇到的挑战,从而指出未来的研究方向。  相似文献   
3.
白斯木 《晋阳学刊》2011,(4):115-119
明清易代是中国历史上最为深刻的变革,它对社会的各个领域都产生了极大的影响。伴随着政权鼎革,士大夫家族的命运也随之发生了巨大变化。文章聚焦于曹家以及《红楼梦》在这样的历史中所呈现出的独特意蕴,在周汝昌先生考证的提示下,进一步揭示《红楼梦》伟大的人本主义精神内涵和启蒙意义。  相似文献   
4.
This paper proposes a community-building framework as an innovative strategy to begin to re-claim children and families at risk. It is a strategy that identifies a purpose, a value base, knowledge and theoretical dimensions, and methods of practice that present as an approach for child welfare systems to consider shifts in thinking in order to meet what is considered the most important challenge of the next century: that of rediscovering community. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
5.
A generalized neighbor design relaxes the equality condition on the number of times two treatments as neighbors in the design. In this article, we have considered the construction of some classes of generalized neighbor designs with block size k=3 by using the method of cyclic shifts. The distinguishing feature of this construction method is that the properties of a design can easily be obtained from the sets of shifts instead of constructing the actual blocks of the design. A catalog of generalized neighbor designs with block size k=3 is compiled for v∈{5,6,…,18} treatments and for different replications. We provide the reader with a simpler method of construction, and in general the catalog that gives an open choice to the experimenter for selecting any class of neighbor designs.  相似文献   
6.
研究采用双任务范式、运用眼动追踪系统探讨内源性眼跳前注意转移的机制及其时间进程。结果发现:1.内源性眼跳前已经发生注意转移;2.内源性眼跳前注意转移从眼跳准备期最初就存在。一旦在眼跳指令得到加工后,注意转移迅速开始,并且在开始的50ms至100ms左右增速最快。从整个过程来看,注意转移至目标位置的程度随时间的向后推移而不断增大;3.眼跳目标与当前注视位置的间距对于注意在时间上的转移程度没有显著影响。在相对当前注视点较远的位置,被试对目标特征的平均辨别正确率显著低于较近位置。  相似文献   
7.
Sharma (1977 Sharma , V. K. ( 1977 ). Change-over designs with complete balance for first and second order residual effect . Canad. J. Statist. 5 : 121132 .[Crossref] [Google Scholar]) and Aggarwal et al. (2006 Aggarwal , M. L. , Deng , L.-Y. , Jha , M. K. ( 2006 ). Balanced residual treatment effects designs of first and second order . Statist. Probab. Lett. 76 : 597600 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) considered non circular construction of first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs. Sharma et al. (2002 Sharma , V. K. , Varghese , C. , Jaggi , S. ( 2002 ). On optimality of change-over designs balanced for first and second order residual effects . Metron 60 : 153162 . [Google Scholar]) constructed circular first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs only for a class with parameters (v, p = 3n, n = v 2) and also showed its universal optimality. In this article, we consider circular construction of first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs and strongly balanced repeated measurements designs by using the method of cyclic shifts. Some new circular designs with parameters (v, p, n) for cases p = v, p < v and p > v are given.  相似文献   
8.
Using a direct resampling process, a Bayesian approach is developed for the analysis of the shiftpoint problem. In many problems it is straight forward to isolate the marginal posterior distribution of the shift-point parameter and the conditional distribution of some of the parameters given the shift point and the other remaining parameters. When this is possible, a direct sampling approach is easily implemented whereby standard random number generators can be used to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of aii the parameters in the model. This technique is illustrated with examples involving one shift for Poisson processes and regression models.  相似文献   
9.
在《永别了,武器》一文中,这种从"我"到"你"或到"我们"的人称转变,至少隐含以下几种含义:主人公弗雷德里克·亨利(Frederic Henry)对过去思想和感情的回忆;以平民身份对军人身份的描述;对凯瑟琳·芭克莉(Catherine Barkley)的爱;对战争的愤恨。本文从语言学和心理学的角度来解读这部经典小说的隐显叙事手法。  相似文献   
10.
换韵与情绪宣泄关系十分密切,从王令《梦蝗》诗可以明显看到这一点。从《梦蝗》诗的换韵中人们可以有效地把握王令诗的情绪节奏变化特征,真正理解作为"蓄含悲愤"而又"笔力恣肆"诗人的情绪结构本质。  相似文献   
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