金融结构对产业结构影响的时变特征研究——基于SUR和TVPSS模型的实证检验

金融结构与产业结构的关系一直是学术界的研究热点.文章利用中国1998—2017年的年度数据,构建似不相关回归模型从金融结构规模、效率及深化的角度分析金融结构对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响,建立时变参数状态空间模型描绘了金融结构对产业结构合理化和高级化的动态冲击.实证分析结果表明:金融结构规模提高产业结构合理化水平,促进了产业结构高级化;金融结构效率提高产业结构合理化水平,抑制了产业结构高级化;金融结构深化降低产业结构合理化水平,促进了产业结构高级化.金融结构规模、金融结构效率及金融结构深化对产业结构合理化和高级化的冲击均呈现出时变特征;金融结构对产业结构合理化的影响滞后于其对产业结构高级化的影响.金融结构对产业结构的冲击波幅呈现出前期波动大、后期较为平缓的状态,部分金融结构变量对产业结构的动态冲击呈现出"长尾"现象.当前的中国金融结构已经不适合当前的产业结构,需调整金融结构,以提升产业结构合理化水平和高级化水平.     

挣脱生态牢笼的路径探幽——《共产党宣言》中马克思生态思想解读

《共产党宣言》蕴含着深刻的生态思想,其体系以人、社会、自然整体为背景,其核心观点认为生态问题是由资本主义生产方式引起的.马克思在唯物史观视野下,科学论证了资产阶级的所有制必然灭亡、共产主义必然实现的历史发展逻辑,廓清了人与人、人与自然之间双重和解的演化路径.其中关于科技提升、市场拓展、交通和通信发展等引起世界市场“生态扩张”的思想,对全球化程度日益加深境况下“生态文明”和“人类命运共同体”的构建具有重大的理论和实践指导价值.     

Family Characteristics and Mate Selection: Evidence From Computer‐Assisted Dating in Japan

Research on mate selection rarely considers singles' preferences for their future partners' family configurations and experiences. Using online dating records from a matchmaking agency in Japan, a society with a strong emphasis on family and kinship, we examine how singles' responses to date requests correspond to potential mates' family circumstances. Results showed that singles' preferences for potential partners' family characteristics stem from a concern about future obligations toward the partner's family and stereotypes associated with certain family traits. Singles are less likely to accept requests from those from large families, which are seen as traditional. Being from a large family, however, hampers individuals' dating chances more if they are firstborn and have no brothers, two conditions that make them the designated child to care for elderly parents. We also find that Japanese singles seek partners with more of the universally valued family traits rather than traits similar to their own.     

从盖恩斯《刑前一课》看小说视点与叙事层面的建构

盖恩斯在《刑前一课》里从零视点与悬念的建构、外视点与悖论的建构、内视点与意识流、多视点聚焦与立体感等方面来研究小说视点与叙事层面的相互关联。他从零视点的角度建构人称悬念、瞬间悬念和期待性悬念，从外视点的角度设置了主题悖论、言辞悖论和语境悖论。为了克服零视点和外视点描述的单调性和乏味性，盖恩斯把内视点与意识流进行了有机结合，从触景生情式意识流、内心独白式意识流和交织式意识流等方面探究人物心理与社会环境的内在关联。他还在人物评述和场景氛围等方面采用了多视点策略，从多层次和多侧面的角度来聚焦于具体的人物、物件或场景，构建了叙事层面的立体感，拓展了现代黑人小说创作的美学认知空间。     

Conjuncture and cultural reproduction in the process of embedding: social work practice in the context of government purchase of services in China

This paper focuses on the Chinese government’s policy of purchasing social services and discusses how relevant organisations provide social work and develop it within local socio-political and cultural contexts. An ethnographic research method was adopted for the study by the first author while participating in social work development in Q City. We argue that the policy of purchasing social services succeeded in achieving “embedded development” but also created a “conjuncture structure” in cultural reproduction. However, due toprofessional social workers in China have, in practice, passively responded to the conjuncture there has been a failure to reproduce professional values of social work in the Chinese cultural context. Therefore, further development of social work in China needs to strengthen cultural reflection in practical actions, focus on the exploration of cultural connections between social work practice and local communities, and enhance the cultural capacity of social workers in the local cultural context.     

Social cohesion in Rwanda: Results from a public good experiment

We describe a public good experiment, a type of economic experiment commonly used to examine feelings of prosociality—that is, behaviour which is positive, helpful and intended to promote social acceptance and friendship—and community cohesion, carried out in Rwanda. Contributions in different parts of the country are affected by the local intensity of the 1994 genocide, with more generous contributions being made in areas where violence was greater. This supports earlier research indicating that conflict experience leads to greater prosociality. However, we also find that people who have not, themselves, been targets of violence give lower contributions than people who have. The considerable group‐related and regional differences in social behaviour may have implications for the country's policies to deal with social cohesion.     

Closure property of consistently varying random variables based on precise large deviation principles

Let X = {X₁, X₂, …} be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables, and let η be a counting random variable independent of X. Consider randomly stopped sum S_η = ∑^η_{k = 1}X_k and random maximum S_(η) ? max?{S₀, …, S_η}. Assuming that each X_k belongs to the class of consistently varying distributions, on the basis of the well-known precise large deviation principles, we prove that the distributions of S_η and S_(η) belong to the same class under some mild conditions. Our approach is new and the obtained results are further studies of Kizinevi?, Sprindys, and ?iaulys (2016) and Andrulyt?, Manstavi?ius, and ?iaulys (2017).     

被遗忘权的制度缺失、发展困境与中国构建路径

数据时代面临的个人信息受到侵害、个人隐私泄露、算法歧视等一系列重大问题，应将以保护信息主体权利为目的的被遗忘权确立下来。欧美被遗忘权在隐私与自由之间存在的冲突背后所体现的是被遗忘权对于各国需求的重要性，我国现有法律制度中规定的删除权与欧盟所确立的被遗忘权是不能等同的。现行被遗忘权面临着调整对象的设定缺陷、权利内容的设定偏差、责任主体的设定不足三方面的发展困境。学者热议与实践需求在一定程度上表明我国应当引入被遗忘权，并应从调整对象的优化构建、权利内容的改造构建、责任承担的明确构建搭建起中国的路径选择，以解决网络信息社会的发展带给我们的新挑战。     

Oracle GMM estimation for misspecified models via thresholding

We propose a thresholding generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for misspecified time series moment condition models. This estimator has the following oracle property: its asymptotic behavior is the same as of any efficient GMM estimator obtained under the a priori information that the true model were known. We propose data adaptive selection methods for thresholding parameter using multiple testing procedures. We determine the limiting null distributions of classical parameter tests and show the consistency of the corresponding block-bootstrap tests used in conjunction with thresholding GMM inference. We present the results of a simulation study for a misspecified instrumental variable regression model and for a vector autoregressive model with measurement error. We illustrate an application of the proposed methodology to data analysis of a real-world dataset.     

基因编辑技术背后的伦理与人权

当前基因编辑技术发展迅速,引起各国政府、学术界和企业界的广泛关注。但从近期“基因编辑婴儿”事件来看,基因编辑技术的伦理问题仍须厘清,我国现行法律尚不完善。通过保护基因编辑婴儿隐私、切实发挥伦理委员会作用、加快相关立法工作,我们或可更好地解决基因编辑技术背后的伦理和人权问题。