针对生物识别信息的刑法保护:现实境遇与完善路径——以四川“人脸识别案”为切入点

当前生物识别信息在我国社会中的运用呈现逐年递增的趋势.生物识别信息具备本体特殊性和社会特殊性,这决定了其具备与普通公民个人信息不同的重要性,应受到刑法的特殊保护,但我国既定刑事立法对生物识别信息并未进行任何形式的特殊保护.可运用实质解释的方法,在不违反罪刑法定原则的前提下,充分利用两高《解释》第5条中第1款第10项和第2款第4项这两个兜底条款,将"侵犯生物识别信息5条及以上"认定为"情节严重",将"侵犯生物识别信息50条及以上"认定为"情节特别严重",由此降低针对生物识别信息原本的入罪和法定刑升格的数量,最终实现对生物识别信息的特殊刑法保护.     

基于违约鉴别能力组合赋权的小企业信用评级——基于小型工业企业样本数据的实证分析

信用评级是衡量债务违约的可能性,因此评级体系要有违约风险识别能力,能够将违约客户和非违约客户显著地区分开.通过逼近理想点的思路,构建多目标规划模型求解最优的组合权重,并对中国某区域性商业银行1 814笔小型工业企业贷款进行实证分析.本文的创新与特色一是以非违约企业的数据到正理想点的距离代数和最小为第一个目标函数,以违约企业的数据到负理想点的距离代数和最小为第二个目标函数,构建多目标非线性规划模型进行组合赋权,在满足了“非违约企业的评价得分越高、违约企业的评价得分越低”要求的目标下得到最优的组合赋权的权重系数,使赋权结果保证了评级模型能够将违约企业与非违约企业最大地区分开.改变了现有研究的组合赋权脱离评价目的的弊端,改变了现有研究中违约与非违约企业的评价得分存在大量重叠、对两类企业的区分能力低的弊端.二是通过检验“违约企业的信用得分是否显著小于非违约企业的信用得分”的J-T非参数检验,验证信用评价模型的合理性.改变现有研究忽略对信用评价模型的合理性进行验证的弊端.三是经过实证,发现本研究建立的组合赋权模型的违约鉴别能力(Z=5.546)要高于现有研究的两种常用组合赋权模型、即基于方差最大的组合赋权(Z=4.298)和基于偏差最小的组合赋权(Z=5.182)     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

论第二语言与外语的界定

学术界对术语第二语言与外语的理解和使用一直比较混乱，导致两者的界定困难和误区。区别和界定第二语言和外语经历了从广义到狭义的发展过程，目标语环境的有无是第二语言和外语的本质区别，也是界定两者的基本依据，在目标语言环境下学习的非本族语是第二语言，而在非目标语环境下学习的非本族语是外语。在此基础上，本文阐述了语言地位、学习模式、语言水平等不能作为界定依据的理由。     

Understanding the Ecological Validity of Relying Practice as a Basis for Risk Identification

Understanding the reliability of hazardous organizations and their protective systems is central to understanding the risk they produce. Work on “high reliability organization” has done much to illuminate the conditions in which social organization becomes reliable in highly demanding conditions. But risk depends just as much on how relying entities do their relying as it does on the reliability of the entities they rely on. Patterns of relying are often opaque in sociotechnical systems, and processes of relying and being relied on are mutually influencing in complex ways, so the relationship between relying and risk may not be at all obvious. This study was an attempt to study relying as a social practice, in particular analyzing how it had ecological validity in a social organization—how practice was responsive to the conditions in which it took place. This involved observational fieldwork and inductive, qualitative analysis on an offshore oil and gas production platform that was nearing the end of its design life and undergoing refurbishment. The analysis produced four main categories of ecological validity: responsiveness to formal organization, responsiveness to situational contingency, responsiveness to information asymmetry, and responsiveness to sociomateriality. This ecological validity of relying practice should be a primary focus of risk identification, assessing how relying can become mismatched to reliability in certain ways, both when relying practice is responsive to circumstances and when it is not.     

中日史前拔牙年龄和次数比较研究

探讨史前拔牙个体的年龄和次数,对了解史前社会生活和社会意识、宗教信仰具有重要意义。认为中国和日本新石器时代的原生拔牙应该是青春期或成年期拔牙。中国新石器时代只存在一次拔牙现象,而日本新石器时代存在多次拔牙现象。这说明虽然同处新石器时代,但社会结构和社会意识有所不同。     

农民社会阶层越高越幸福吗?——基于CGSS 2010-2015年数据的微观分析

针对农民社会阶层与幸福感问题，通过分析2010-2015年“中国综合社会调查”数据，采用有序响应Logit模型估计，实证检验了农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应。研究发现，农民社会阶层定位存在幸福效应，社会阶层定位越高的农民，其幸福感越强；进一步区域比较发现，此幸福效应在经济发达地区最为显著；而户籍比较发现，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应低于城镇居民；但从发展趋势来看，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应较10年前有所增强，且农民对社会阶层定位有较为乐观的预期。据此提出，民生建设中重视农民的发展诉求和精神需求，融通农民社会阶层上升的渠道，从而提高农民幸福感，保障农民公平共享社会发展的成果。     

Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification

When analyzing data on subjective expectations of continuous outcomes, researchers have access to a limited number of reported probabilities for each respondent from which to construct complete distribution functions. Moreover, reported probabilities may be rounded and thus not equal to true beliefs. Using survival expectations elicited from a representative sample from the Netherlands, we investigate what can be learned if we take these two sources of missing information into account and expectations are therefore only partially identified. We find novel evidence for rounding by checking whether reported expectations are consistent with a hazard of death that increases weakly with age. Only 39% of reported beliefs are consistent with this under the assumption that all probabilities are reported precisely, while 92% are if we allow for rounding. Using the available information to construct bounds on subjective life expectancy, we show that the data alone are not sufficiently informative to allow for useful inference in partially identified linear models, even in the absence of rounding. We propose to improve precision by interpolation between rounded probabilities. Interpolation in combination with a limited amount of rounding does yield informative intervals.     

基层公务员职业认同特征及其对工作绩效与离职倾向的影响研究

基层公务员的职业认同对公务员队伍建设和推进国家治理能力现代化有着重要的意义。本文通过对760名基层公务员的问卷调查发现：基层公务员职业认同包括职业行为投入、职业发展认同和职业价值认同三个维度，呈现出以价值认同为核心、行为投入为外层、发展认同居中的圈层结构；基层公务员职业认同接近较高水平，但职业发展认同较低；不同类型基层公务员职业认同呈现出一定差异，其中青年公务员的职业认同显著低于中老年公务员，低职级公务员较高职级公务员职业认同更低。进一步分析发现，基层公务员职业认同能正向预测工作绩效，职业认同能负向预测离职倾向。在此基础上，本研究提出提升基层公务员职业认同的相关对策建议。