The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes.     

基于质量意识的复杂产品质量控制激励策略

激励在复杂产品供应链中对主供协同合作关系及质量控制发挥了重要作用。本文研究基于主制造商在复杂产品生产研发前按照客户要求形成的质量意识的激励策略是否可以实现复杂产品质量控制问题。考虑具有质量意识的主制造商和其系统供应商组成的两级供应链，建立以主制造商为领导者的Stackelberg博弈模型，分别讨论无激励和存在激励时的主供生产最优决策。基于激励方式的不同，将激励策略分为根据供应商产品质量水平激励以及根据主制造商质量意识水平激励两种方式。研究结果表明激励是供应商加强协同合作、改进产品质量的内在动力，主制造商根据质量意识激励供应商可以进一步促使双方协同合作，提高产品质量，使双方获得更高的利润从而实现供应链整体利润最大化。此外用灵敏度分析发现提高主制造商质量意识水平可以增加双方协同合作努力程度，有效提升产品质量水平并实现帕累托改进。     

Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data

The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top‐down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative‐unit level asset value to grid‐cell level. To do so, finding the highly correlated “surrogate” indicators is the key. A combination of three data sets—nighttime light grid, LandScan population grid, and road density grid, is used as ancillary asset density distribution information for spatializing the asset value. As a result, a high spatial resolution asset value map of China for 2015 is generated. The spatial data set contains aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc‐second spatial resolution. Accuracy of the spatial disaggregation reflects redistribution errors introduced by the disaggregation process as well as errors from the original ancillary data sets. The overall accuracy of the results proves to be promising. The example of using the developed disaggregated asset value map in exposure assessment of watersheds demonstrates that the data set offers immense analytical flexibility for overlay analysis according to the hazard extent. This product will help current efforts to analyze spatial characteristics of exposure and to uncover the contributions of both physical and social drivers of natural hazard and disaster across space and time.     

Demand for decision autonomy and the desire to avoid responsibility in risky environments: Experimental evidence

This paper experimentally studies individuals’ willingness to pay for the authority to make risky decisions for themselves, and the willingness to take responsibility for others, as primary determinants of leadership willingness. We consider a setup involving a pair of individuals, where one individual is designated to make both parties’ decisions by default. Depending on treatment, either party can express a willingness to pay to change this situation. If one’s willingness to pay to make her own decision herself is positive (negative), we interpret it as a demand for autonomy (a desire to delegate). On the flip side, if one’s willingness to pay to avoid making a decision on behalf of another person is positive (negative), we interpret it as a desire to avoid responsibility (a demand for authority). We find that on average, individuals are willing to pay positive amounts of money to make their decisions themselves, and incur positive but smaller opportunity costs for the right to make decisions for others. Certain individual and contextual characteristics emerge as important predictors. Notably, (1) men are more likely to demand both autonomy and authority at the same time, (2) individuals with other regarding preferences are more likely to pay to avoid taking responsibility for others’ decisions when the probability of loss is high. Exploring differences between individuals’ own decisions and the decisions they make on behalf of others, we find that subjects with other-regarding preferences tend to “cautious-shift” when making decisions on behalf of others. Also, we find that individuals who would like to avoid responsibility also tend to “shift” their decisions when put in a decision-making role. The results have implications for the allocation of decision-making authority in pairs and leadership.     

Rural-urban differences in college students’ cardiovascular risk perceptions

Abstract

Objective: To examine rural-urban differences in college students’ cardiovascular risk perceptions. Participants: College students in rural (n?=?61) and urban (n?=?57) Kentucky counties were recruited from November 2012 to May 2014. Methods: This was a secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional study examining rural-urban differences in cardiovascular risk factors. Students rated their risk for developing high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart disease, having a stroke, and gaining excess weight. Chi-square and logistic regression were used for data analysis. Results: Rural students had lower odds of perceived high risk for developing high blood pressure compared to urban students (odds ratio (OR): 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11–0.96) after adjusting for race, sex, and body mass index. This association was not observed after adjusting for healthcare access variables. No other significant differences were observed. Conclusions: Efforts to raise perceived risk for developing hypertension among rural college students may be warranted.     

Knowledge of Suicide Risk Factors,But Not Suicide Ideation Severity,Is Greater Among College Students Who Viewed 13 Reasons Why

Abstract

Objective: To test associations between viewing 13 Reasons Why, Season 1 and past week suicide ideation severity, behavior risk, stigma, and knowledge in college students. To explore whether personal exposure to suicide and depressive symptom severity moderated these associations. Participants: Eight-hundred and eighteen college students, 64% (n?=?522) of whom watched 13 Reasons Why. Methods: Students completed surveys online. Multivariate negative binomial regressions were used to test associations between watching 13 Reasons Why and suicide-related variables, and interaction terms. Results: Suicide ideation severity and suicide behavior risk were not significantly associated with viewing 13 Reasons Why; however, there was limited statistical power to detect associations. The association between watching 13 Reasons Why and greater suicide knowledge was stronger among those who did not have personal exposure to suicide. Conclusions: 13 Reasons Why may be a platform for psychoeducation on suicide, particularly among those who do not have personal exposure.     

‘Seeing through their Eyes’: Towards Understanding Risk and Protection Perspectives of Young Bedouin Children in the Unrecognised Villages of the Naqab

This article is based on a participatory, context-informed study that examined perception of ‘risk’ and ‘protection’ among 30 Bedouin children aged four to five. It was conducted in the Bedouin unrecognised villages — Southern Israel and utilised photography, drawings and verbal explanations. The analysis yielded seven themes representing children’s perceptions of risk and protection. It indicated that children facing extreme adversity were aware of numerous risk conditions, including a lack of infrastructure and the fear of losing their homes, thus adversely affecting their well-being. Children’s insights, and suggested modes of protection, as the study findings reveal, are crucial for promoting children’s welfare.     

The Ethical Foundations of Risk Analysis

In the field of risk analysis, the normative value systems underlying accepted methodology are rarely explicitly discussed. This perspective provides a critique of the various ethical frameworks that can be used in risk assessments and risk management decisions. The goal is to acknowledge philosophical weaknesses that should be considered and communicated in order to improve the public acceptance of the work of risk analysts.     

Variability in Cross‐Domain Risk Perception among Smallholder Farmers in Mali by Gender and Other Demographic and Attitudinal Characteristics

Previous research has shown that men and women, on average, have different risk attitudes and may therefore see different value propositions in response to new opportunities. We use data from smallholder farm households in Mali to test whether risk perceptions differ by gender and across domains. We model this potential association across six risks (work injury, extreme weather, community relationships, debt, lack of buyers, and conflict) while controlling for demographic and attitudinal characteristics. Factor analysis highlights extreme weather and conflict as eliciting the most distinct patterns of participant response. Regression analysis for Mali as a whole reveals an association between gender and risk perception, with women expressing more concern except in the extreme weather domain; however, the association with gender is largely absent when models control for geographic region. We also find lower risk perception associated with an individualistic and/or fatalistic worldview, a risk‐tolerant outlook, and optimism about the future, while education, better health, a social orientation, self‐efficacy, and access to information are generally associated with more frequent worry—with some inconsistency. Income, wealth, and time poverty exhibit complex associations with perception of risk. Understanding whether and how men's and women's risk preferences differ, and identifying other dominant predictors such as geographic region and worldview, could help development organizations to shape risk mitigation interventions to increase the likelihood of adoption, and to avoid inadvertently making certain subpopulations worse off by increasing the potential for negative outcomes.     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.