On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Accurate computation of single and product moments of order statistics under progressive censoring

An accurate procedure is proposed to calculate approximate moments of progressive order statistics in the context of statistical inference for lifetime models. The study analyses the performance of power series expansion to approximate the moments for location and scale distributions with high precision and smaller deviations with respect to the exact values. A comparative analysis between exact and approximate methods is shown using some tables and figures. The different approximations are applied in two situations. First, we consider the problem of computing the large sample variance–covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimators. We also use the approximations to obtain progressively censored sampling plans for log-normal distributed data. These problems illustrate that the presented procedure is highly useful to compute the moments with precision for numerous censoring patterns and, in many cases, is the only valid method because the exact calculation may not be applicable.     

Circular economy and the city: an urban political economy agenda

ABSTRACT

The circular economy (CE) has become a matter of urban development. A literature review shows that the CE debate is biased toward technology-driven industrial change, while bracketing broader socio-political interests. We address this gap by exploring the political economy of scale of the CE. Looking into the case of Brussels (Belgium), a city that has recently adopted the CE as part of its socio-economic strategy, we explore how the anticipated transition to a ‘circular city’ chimes with long-standing urban development agendas. While there is little evidence of stable growth coalitions between corporate and political elites, we argue that the CE provides an ‘urban sustainability fix’ by selectively incorporating ecological goals in urban governance strategies. We further scrutinise the landscape of diverse and heterogenous CE practices in food and transport, highlighting how they are regulated and organised, what labour conditions they offer, and how they are anchored in urban space.     

Factor Structure and Reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale with Latino and Caucasian Male Emerging Adults

Abstract

Based on the value of children theory, the purpose of this study was to develop and establish the factor structure and internal consistency reliability of the Advantages of Children Scale (ACS), a self-report measure of a modification of Hoffman and Hoffman’s value scheme of the psychological needs children meet for their parents. Data were collected from 685 emerging adult men identifying as Latino or Caucasian who were not parents. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis found a good fit for the six hypothesized subscales on the ACS: connectedness, expansion of self, family heritage, adult status and social identity, development of self, and family maintenance. We discuss potential applications of the measure in research and practice.     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

Enabling everything: scale,disability and the film The Theory of Everything

This article looks at the representation of scale in the 2014 film The Theory of Everything, identifying moments that relate to three concerns: firstly, how disabled people experience scale issues at an all too practical level in daily life; secondly, how Hawking’s experience of scale at the level of both body and mind is (a)typical of the way it is experienced by disabled people generally; and, thirdly, how a focus on the film can prompt some rethinking of perspectives both within disability studies and within the conceptualisation of scale more broadly.     

金融投资影响居民主观幸福感的影响研究——基于CFPS数据

随着金融资产在居民家庭资产结构中的地位上升,金融投资活动对居民主观幸福感的影响日趋显著,这种主观幸福感可以用生活满意程度和未来信心程度来刻画。来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的经验证据表明,家庭金融投资规模对居民生活满意程度和未来信心程度都会产生负向影响；家庭金融投资绝对收益对居民生活满意程度存在正向影响,而家庭金融投资相对收益则对居民未来信心程度存在负向影响。这些情形可能源自于金融投资市场在市场机制、公平程度、投资者教育等方面的欠缺,需要管理者采取措施来改变这种幸福感损失。     

基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集均值-标准差偏好距离的多属性决策研究

在犹豫直觉模糊语言集和语言尺度函数的基础上定义了均值-标准差偏好的Hamming距离，并提出了基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集距离TOPSIS和TODIM的多属性决策方法，进一步利用这两种方法对实例问题建筑商的招标方案进行排序，并讨论了偏好参数对排序结果的灵敏度分析。为验证上述方法的有效性，与已有方法对同一实例的排序结果进行了比较分析。     

中国民营企业家的伦理领导行为:内涵结构与量表开发

文章以中国民营企业家为研究对象，采用跨案例分析法探讨企业家伦理领导行为的内涵结构及特征，并在此基础上开发具有中国情境特点的民营企业家伦理领导行为量表。研究结果显示：受中国儒家伦理文化影响，中国民营企业家伦理领导行为包括"德性修养""集体动机"和"天下情怀"三个维度；企业家的伦理领导行为表现为"修己安人"的关系内涵，企业家自身不仅践行着较高的伦理道德标准，且将之扩展至对员工、组织行为的引导和规范；本研究开发的中国民营企业家伦理领导行为量表具有良好的信度和效度。文章丰富了西方伦理型领导理论和高阶理论研究，对中国本土企业家如何提高领导力有着重要启示。     

When implicit prejudice does not predict explicit prejudice: Spanish version of the Concern with Acting Prejudiced scale / Cuando el prejuicio implícito no predice el explícito: versión española de la escala Concern with Acting Prejudiced

The aim of this research was to adapt and validate the Concern with Acting Prejudiced (CAP) scale for a Spanish sample. This measure evaluates concern about appearing prejudiced to others or oneself and the motivation not to deviate from personal egalitarian standards. First, we completed the translation and an item content validity analysis. Then, in Study 1 (N = 198), we conducted an exploratory factor analysis. In Study 2 (N = 383), we conducted a confirmatory analysis of the unifactorial structure of the Spanish version of the scale and examined its validity. In Study 3 (N = 89), we explored the moderating role of participants’ concern with acting prejudiced in the relation between implicit prejudice and explicit prejudice. The results confirmed the unifactorial structure of the scale, its appropriate psychometric properties and its predictive validity. Moreover, we confirmed that the CAP moderated the relation between implicit and explicit prejudice. In participants with a low concern with acting prejudiced, implicit prejudice was positively related with modern prejudice; in participants with a high concern with acting prejudiced, these variables were not related.