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1.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(8):1534-1540
An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.  相似文献   
2.
ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the disjunctive temporalities of Occupy Philadelphia’s political constituencies. Drawing on both an ethnographic participant observation study of the Occupy Philadelphia movement and Philadelphia’s neoanarchist political communities, and on recent social scientific theorization of events, the paper argues that contradictory ideas about temporal timescales, momentum, duration, sequences, and rhythms of tactical and strategic action problematized interaction and coordination among movement participants. These points of coordinative disjuncture can be traced back to differences in participants’ ideas about prefigurative politics and strategic temporalities. Limning the temporal expectations and experiences of social movement participants, this paper contributes to the examination of both linkages and disjunctures between eventful temporalities experienced in moments of protest and in social movements with diverse timescales.  相似文献   
3.
ABSTRACT

Shared memories shape relations among social movement participants and their organizations. However, scholars often ignore how experience operates as a means of solidifying attachment in group contexts. In contrast, I argue that activism depends on how participants publicly recall events. In this, I integrate a social memory perspective with the examination of activist movements. Through narrative, participants build engagement by presenting the self-in-history as a model for collective action. I refer to this as eventful experience, utilizing memorable moments as a resource for generating commitment. Movements depend upon members communicating the critical moments of their lives, embedding personal timelines in group culture. The linkage of personal experience and public events is a strategy by which individuals motivate collective action. Drawing on a thirty-month ethnography of a progressive senior citizen activist group in Chicago, I examine how members use an awareness of temporality to build a culture of action. Each movement group uses the past experiences of participants to build their culture – what Jasper refers to as taste in tactics, incorporating past successes, present plans, and imagined futures into a call for direct action.  相似文献   
4.
Abstract

This article discusses how the history of sports can serve as way to understand abstract concepts associated with local history and social studies education. An introductory discussion outlines how sports can engage and interest students, focusing especially on ideas related to history thinking (such as change and continuity). A case study using the Brooklyn Dodgers’ move to Los Angeles is used to illustrate these ideas, focusing on themes associated with suburbanization and urban renewal. A lesson plan is also provided.  相似文献   
5.
新冠疫情的暴发作为一场全球性重大公共卫生事件对青年思想状况产生了较大影响。思想政治教育必须回应青年的思想关切,并给予及时的引导。基于重大公共卫生事件做好思想政治教育工作有五个基本着力点,即:以树立正确的灾难观为着力点,培养危机意识和担当精神;以倡导科学应对疫情为着力点,提高理性思辨能力和自我防护能力;以讲好中国抗疫经验为着力点,增强四个意识,坚定四个自信;以反思人与自然关系为着力点,增强自然保护意识和生态文明理念;以关注全球抗疫大局为着力点,筑牢人类命运共同体意识。  相似文献   
6.
陈家明  蒋彬 《民族学刊》2020,11(5):120-126, 159-160
体育与少数民族国家认同问题是一个重要的研究课题,学界目前主要就体育现象本身进行对比或论证少数民族国家认同,而缺乏符号学这一简约方法的深层次解读。国家认同是各种象征符号的集合。体育是一种天然的符号,具有丰富的文化象征含义。因而从符号学视野探究体育与少数民族国家认同具有重要的理论与现实意义。少数民族的国家认同核心是政治认同与文化认同,体育的物源符号化、自然寓意、伴随文本意义、元语言解读、共同记忆塑造功能,有力促进现代国家少数民族国家认同。认清体育符号的标出性历史反转趋势,采取适当宽幅的文化选择,加强体育元语言的解读,充分利用体育符号媒介作用,增强少数民族文化自觉与自信、强化中华“多元一体”认识,厘清国家政治边界,从而有力促进少数民族国家认同的构建。  相似文献   
7.
德智体美劳全面培养的教育体系是我党一以贯之的根本遵循,是为实现“两个一百年奋斗目标”和中华民族伟大复兴夯实人才基础及青少年个体成长成才的时代命题。揭示德智体美劳全面培养的教育体系的内在逻辑和其中蕴含的全面性理念、整体性理念和实践性理念,是新时代形成更高水平的人才培养体系应有之意。  相似文献   
8.
目前,以手机终端为依托的微信传播技术不仅给社会传播方式带来了前所未有的改变,而且给社会风险信息的传播获取以及公众对风险的感知与判断,甚至政府的风险决策与治理方式都带来了巨大的挑战.鉴于此,选取了比较典型的案例——山东“问题”疫苗事件作为探讨对象,结合相应的统计资料,深入分析了在此案例中微信传播呈现出的显著特征,即传播内容庞杂未见明显的“沉默螺旋”的显现,传播态度多元化但偏于激动,传播迅速集中但议题缺乏持续的关注.研究认为,正由于这样的传播特征加之疫苗风险本身的特征与个体的偏颇性解读,使公众对“问题”疫苗事件产生了强烈的风险感知,并在一定程度上造成了疫苗的污名化结果.因此建议微信时代一定要警惕媒介化的风险,风险沟通要在同理心的基础上进行,要引导公众对风险议题进行持续理性的关注等.  相似文献   
9.
概述了我国普通高校大学体育课程的发展现状,休闲体育健身理念引入大学体育课程的必要性和必然性。对休闲体育的健身理念进行了整理,探讨了这一新的健身理念引入大学体育课程的有效途径,对休闲体育健身理念引入大学体育课程的结果进行了预测。  相似文献   
10.
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.  相似文献   
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