滨海新区K 区域动态发展规划的模型研究

采用超效率DEA 模型和趋势预测模型对天津滨海新区K 区域2007-2011 年的产值密度和税收密度进行预测。首先利用超效率DEA 模型计算出我国54 个国家级经济技术开发区的超效率值，以其中有效的9 个开发区的超效率值为权重，结合它们1997-2006年各开发区产值密度和税收密度值，建立回归模型。再根据滨海新区K 区域2006年产值密度和税收密度值，得到其未来5 年动态发展规划，对K 区域发展有一定指导作用。     

Immigration politics by proxy: state agency in an era of national reluctance

ABSTRACT

While attempts to reform immigration policy have stalled in the U.S. Congress, statehouses across the country are responsible for an explosion in immigration lawmaking. This study uses an intergovernmental relations framework to identify shifting allocations of authority and contested scales of jurisdiction that now characterise the U.S. immigration policy. It presents an analysis of more than 2200 state bills passed over eight years (2006–2013), and supplements this with a case study of drivers’ licence and identification laws. The study is unique in its consideration of the ways that dispersed authority in multi-level systems may amplify rather than defuse contentious immigration politics.     

Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to Leverage Social Indicator Databases: The Discovery of Interesting Patterns

With the proliferation of social indicator databases, the need for powerful techniques to study patterns of change has grown. In this paper, the utility of spatial data analytical methods such as exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is suggested as a means to leverage the information contained in social indicator databases. The principles underlying ESDA are illustrated using a study of clusters and outliers based on data for a child risk scale computed for countries in the state of Virginia. Evidence of spatial clusters of high child risks is obtained along the Southern region of Virginia. The utility of spatial methods for state agencies in monitoring social indicators at various localities is discussed. A six-step framework that integrates spatial analysis of key indicators within a monitoring framework is presented; we argue that such a framework could be useful in enhancing communication between State and local planners. Given cost considerations, the original color figures have been printed in black and white in this article. The color figures can be obtained from http://www.chs.med.ed.ac.uk/rubhc/evaluation/     

国家级经济技术开发区进口外溢与区外城市的经济增长

基于内生增长理论建立计量模型,以2002—2017年中国地级市数据和国家级经济技术开发区数据为样本,依据国家级经济技术开发区数量变化,分阶段分区域实证分析了国家级经济技术开发区进口外溢对区外城市经济增长的影响。研究发现:2002年的54个国家级经济技术开发区进口外溢阻碍了区外城市的经济增长,这种阻碍作用从东部、中部到西部地区依次增加；区外城市的工业化水平、人力资本水平、基础设施水平未达到门槛值是产生这种结果的机制。进一步的研究发现,2010年、2011年和2012年随着国家级经济技术开发区数量的增加,其进口外溢对区外城市经济增长的作用由阻碍转为促进。因此,应努力增加国家级经济技术开发区的数量,提高区外城市的工业化水平、人力资本水平、基础设施水平,完善国家级经济技术开发区进口产品结构,以发挥国家级经济技术开发区进口外溢对区外城市经济增长的推动作用。相对于中东部地区,西部地区更应如此。      

高校在创建国家级精品课程中的基本策略

借鉴有关高校在国家级精品课程创建方面的成功经验,紧紧围绕精品课程＂五个一流＂的建设目标,探讨了普通高校在教师队伍、教学内容、教学方法、教材、教学管理等方面应采取的基本策略。     

State Policy Choices and Responsiveness of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program During the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

The Great Recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 was the most severe recession since the Depression of the 1930s. To accurately explain the number of families and children receiving cash assistance from Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) during the 2007 recession, it is important to capture state-level variations in recessionary periods, economies, and TANF policies. This study breaks ground by using multiple regression to explain the number of families enrolled in the TANF program when the TANF caseload peaked in each of the 51 jurisdictions’ recessions as a function of their severe TANF policies while controlling for benefit levels, unemployment rates, and size of populations. Key findings strongly suggest that all else constant, TANF did not grow as much as it would have in the 2007 recession partially due to shorter lifetime limits (less than 60 months) or temporary time limits, multiple severe policies, or benefit cuts witnessed in some states. This study is important to policy makers and academics concerned with the effect of severe policies on the enrollment of needy families with children in the TANF program. The federal government should encourage states to relax some of their requirements during recessions. Future research should examine the consequences of severe TANF policies on the well-being of families with children during recessions.