全球价值链背景下加工贸易企业升级路径分析

金融危机以来国际贸易保护主义色彩浓郁，中国内部粗放型经济增长方式存在一定的不可持续性和人口红利开始逐渐消失，中国加工贸易嵌入发达国家主导的全球价值链低附加值和低生产率问题引起了学者的注意。随着外部贸易环境、国内新常态要素禀赋结构的变化和深化供给侧结构性改革的需要，推动加工贸易企业升级已经成为中国经济结构调整的一个重要部分。通过分析中国加工贸易的起源、发展和现状，描述全球价值链背景下加工贸易的若干特征和“低端锁定”问题，引出了融资约束对企业经营决策、出口行为以及企业全球价值链上地位的影响，并围绕以生产过程、产品升级和功能升级为主的产业内升级和以劳动密集型向技术密集型转变为特征的产业间升级两个角度，提出了中国加工贸易企业在全球价值链上攀升的路径。研究认为，着重强调人力资本积累、本土企业技术外溢的吸收能力以及自主研发能力的培养，同时结合国际产能合作和“一带一路”倡议等现实背景，实现东西双向开放，塑造以我为主的包容性的区域价值链和国内价值链等，是中国加工贸易企业升级的路径和新机遇。     

对海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的再探讨

虽然以往研究海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的成果颇丰,但还是存在一些不足。为此,本文对海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的结构类型、运行机制及其影响等进行了深化与细化。在海洋霸权国国力大于或小于或等于大陆均势中的有关国家的不同情况下,大陆均势可以分为不需要海洋霸权仅凭大陆国家就能形成的大陆均势和需要海洋霸权且支持其中一方才能形成的大陆均势。不同的国力对比和均势构成情况,对海洋霸权与大陆国家的政治安全与经济发展所产生的影响是不同的。经过分析和比较,本文得出结论:海陆分界难分优劣,关系互补战略呼应,这就是美英极力推行海洋霸权与大陆均势战略的现实诠释。     

Humor and satire in politics: Introducing cultural sociology to the field

The landscape of political humor and satire is changing rapidly, and it is becoming an increasingly relevant aspect of our culture. Although scholars have been actively trying to capture this change, majority of the existing frameworks for understanding humor and satire in politics still reduce these phenomena to mere genres or rhetoric tools. In addition, they provide insufficient accounts concerning the reception of humor and satire, and neglect to interpret and explain what they communicate. In the article, a general understanding of humor and satire outside of a political context, followed by an overview of studies discussing humor and satire in politics through their applications in social movements, as leadership tools, and through their manifestations in mass media has been presented. Lastly, a cultural sociological perspective to the field has been introduced. It has been argued that approaching humor and satire in politics through a structural hermeneutic method of the Strong Program will enable us to recognize and treat political humor and satire as autonomous and complex cultural systems which carry an internal power to move people.     

《结构实验与方法》课程案例库建设研究

为提高土木工程专业《结构实验与方法》研究生课程的教学质量，培养研究生的应用与创新研究能力，基于《结构实验与方法》研究生课程的具体教学实践，分析了建设《结构实验与方法》研究生课程教学案例库的必要性，探讨了《结构实验与方法》研究生课程教学案例库建设的程序与目标，提出了建设《结构实验与方法》研究生课程教学案例库的基本方法。     

Risk-Informed Requirements for Design and Assessment of Structures Under Temporary Use

The relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular. There is a need for establishing appropriate target reliability levels for structures under temporary use taking into account specific circumstances such as reduced risk exposure times. This issue is being addressed in this article. Acceptance criteria for building-structure-related risks to persons obtained in prior studies are adapted to the special circumstances of nonpermanent risk exposure. Thereby, the general principle followed is to maintain the same risk levels per time unit as for permanently occupied buildings. The adaptation is based on the statistical annual fatality rate, a life safety risk metric that allows for a consistent comparison of risks across different societal activities and technologies. It is shown that the target reliability indices taking account of the temporary use of buildings might be significantly higher than the values suggested for permanently used structures.     

感知风险对在线旅游产品购买意愿的影响分析

旅游电子商务发展迅猛,互联网购物平台的虚拟性和远程性强化了消费者感知风险,它也成为影响旅游电子商务发展的重要因素之一.文章聚焦消费者感知风险,运用SPSS 19.0及AMOS 21.0软件,构建以5个维度的感知风险为自变量、购买意愿为因变量、信任为调节变量的结构方程模型,探讨变量间相关关系.结果发现:感知风险对信任的影响差异较大,仅经济风险感知与信任呈显著负相关;感知风险对购买意愿总效应皆呈负相关;信任作为中介变量存在明显的调节作用,有效地降低了感知风险对购买意愿的负向影响.     

Informality,emotion and gendered career paths: The hidden toll of maternity leave on female academics and researchers

While the negative impact of child‐raising and caring on women's career progression in academia is well‐established, less is known about the role of academic women's lived experiences of maternity leave as an institutional practice. This article presents the findings of a qualitative study of the lived experiences of female academics and researchers in an Irish university. The analysis intrinsically links organizational structures and problems with the lived and felt dimensions of work. The findings point to the need for better structural accommodations for maternity leave which address the relationship between caring and career disadvantage within academia. The article adds to existing literature on the intersection of motherhood and academia by unpicking the specific role of maternity leave as both a lived experience and an institutional practice that can reinforce gender inequalities in academia.     

Hierarchical likelihood approach to non-Gaussian factor analysis

Factor models, structural equation models (SEMs) and random-effect models share the common feature that they assume latent or unobserved random variables. Factor models and SEMs allow well developed procedures for a rich class of covariance models with many parameters, while random-effect models allow well developed procedures for non-normal models including heavy-tailed distributions for responses and random effects. In this paper, we show how these two developments can be combined to result in an extremely rich class of models, which can be beneficial to both areas. A new fitting procedures for binary factor models and a robust estimation approach for continuous factor models are proposed.     

环境污染社会第三方治理研究

环境污染风险具有流动性、不确定性、跨时空性、不可测量性及难以修复性特征,导致环境污染国家治理机制和环境污染市场治理机制存在制度性局限,亟须建构环境污染社会第三方治理机制。环保社会第三方具有公共性、公益性、专业性、中立性及组织性的特点,环境污染社会第三方治理能够实现利益诉求、利益发展、利益协调及利益保障的制度绩效。针对环境污染社会第三方治理面临的宏观权力结构性失衡、中观机制整体性失调、微观行为系统性失范等瓶颈,优化我国环境污染社会第三方治理的结构性均衡机制、整体性实施机制和系统性规范机制。     

河北省职业教育发展与产业结构关系的实证研究

职业教育与区域产业之间存在着相互影响的关系。基于河北省2000—2017年的时间序列数据,利用Eviews8.0软件分析工具,运用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对河北省职业教育发展规模与其三大产业发展水平之间的关系进行了检验。其结果表明:河北省职业教育发展规模影响第二产业发展水平;河北省职业教育对产业结构优化升级贡献不足;河北省职业教育与三大产业发展之间尚未形成良性互动机制。因此,必须进行职业教育供给侧结构性改革,构建河北省职业教育与区域经济协调发展机制:一是加强顶层设计,完善职业教育与区域经济产业协调发展的体制机制;二要优化专业结构,适应并引领河北省经济产业发展;三要深化内涵发展,提高职业教育人才培养质量。