Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

形似与神似，求真与求美--从本体诗歌翻译理论的角度分析

本体诗歌翻译理论主要探讨译文与原文在形式与内容上的关系。译文与原文应该达到形似还是神似，译者应该求真还是求美，这是翻译界一直争论的话题。按照“形似与神似，求真与求美”的关系来分析江枫先生对艾米莉·狄金森的两首诗歌“暴风雨夜”和“篱笆那边”的翻译，可以看出，标点符号、遣词、诗歌的韵式和诗人的创作风格等方面体现了江枫译文的特点和风格：译文选词简单但富有张力，行文简约而内敛，与原诗风格颇似；但由于过于追求简约而稍显生硬和晦涩。总之，江枫的译文是形似与神似结合的典范，体现其“形似而后神似”的主张以及“简约而忠实”的风格，但并未完全实现“求真与求美”的完美结合。     

符号正义与公共行政 ——基于语言游戏的正义视角

公共行政是正义研究的重要领域。传统理论多采用罗尔斯、诺齐克和沃尔泽等人为正义提供的客观标准。但这些标准不仅在理论上相互冲突,而且在公共行政的实践中也常常会导致模棱两可的判断。本研究旨在提出一种符号正义的观念,来指导当代公共行政的理论与实践。这种观念认为正义并不存在中立客观的标准,而是被群体共享的信念和实践所建构。研究者只有将正义置于特定语言游戏的背景中,才能真正理解其发生和运作。因为和正义相关的不同语言游戏之间只存在家族相似性,所以公共行政必须面对相互冲突的复杂环境。符号正义的观念能够为这种公共行政问题的复杂性提供必不可少的分析框架。     

政府R&D补贴、产权性质与实质性创新绩效 ——基于中国高技术产业的经验数据

以我国高技术产业为样本,采用面板门槛效应模型,实证检验了政府R&D补贴、产权性质与企业实质性创新绩效之间的关系。结果表明,高强度补贴会显著降低政府R&D补贴的正向作用;民营经济比重的上升则有助于政府R&D补贴作用的充分发挥。进一步研究发现,2000—2018年,仅2005、2011和2013等三个年份的补贴强度过高,2007年以后,民营经济的发展均处于合理区间。分区域来看,补贴强度过高的省份多达12个,且大多数位于中部和西部地区;民营经济比重过低的省份有7个,且大多数位于西部地区;补贴强度和民营经济均处于合理区间的有北京、天津、河北等14个省份,而两者均处于不合理区间的有山西、江西、湖北等5个省份。因此,合理设置补贴额度、充分发挥民营经济优势,是真正发挥政府R&D补贴作用、实现高技术产业创新发展的关键所在。     

服务型制造网络的Holon协同需求评价方法

依据复杂网络理论分析服务型制造网络Holon协同需求问题，给出一种考虑以直觉正态模糊数表示且多Holon协同的服务型制造网络协同需求评价方法。首先，在区分Holon复合协同和递归协同基础上构建服务型制造网络协同需求评价指标体系；其次，考虑基于网络结构特征的Holon相似稳定性，根据服务型制造网络节点相似性测度分析Holon协同需求特征，并测算不同相似性测度修正的Holon网络结构熵；再次，建立面向服务型制造网络和Holon的有专家信息双向触动反馈机制，反馈包括评价指标和网络协同状况，反馈Holon信息包括基于服务型制造网络演化方向的Holon间协同需求建议和基于服务型制造网络现有状态的网络连通性Holon协同需求建议；最后由INFCWA（INFCWA_R）算子或INFCWG（INFCWG_R）算子分别对复合协同和递归协同评价信息集结并得出评价结论。方法设计过程通过例证分析说明根据服务型制造网络目标控制的Holon协同需求评价改进了群组评价效率。     

学习迁移的系统理论:PPEE理论模型的建构和意义

学习是人类社会永恒的主题。为了更好地利用过去的经验，增强学习效果，个人和组织进行学习迁移具有重要意义。学习迁移是指将在以往通过学习或解决问题所获得的经验，用于解决之后所遇到的问题。本文力图建立系统的学习迁移理论，研究人、问题、环境的因素对于学习迁移的影响。本文采用理论推导的研究方法，在前人研究的基础上，提出相应的理论模型。本文运用系统的观点，构建了学习迁移的PPEE理论模型，认为人的因素、问题的因素、人和问题的交互作用、以及环境的调节作用，会共同影响学习迁移的效果。本理论主要从五个方面论述学习迁移的机制。首先，将人的因素按照不同层面划分为后端基本能力、中端心理过程、前端知识结构，讨论了其各自对学习迁移效果的直接影响。其次，将问题的因素划分为形象相似性和抽象相似性，并根据这两个维度构建了四种问题间关系类型，并探究了其与学习迁移效果之间的关系。第三，同时考虑人的因素和问题的因素，研究了二者之间的互动对于学习迁移效果的影响。第四，将环境因素划分为时间紧迫性和空间重要性两个维度，探讨了人和环境，以及问题和环境之间的互动对学习迁移效果的影响。第五，基于系统整体的方面，研究人、问题、环境三者之间的互动对学习迁移效果的交互影响。本文还认为，该模型不仅适用于个人，也同样适用于团队、组织、地区、甚至国家和社会等各个层面，影响各个层面主体的学习迁移。本文最后总结了研究的理论和实践贡献，并提出了未来研究课题。本文对丰富学习理论、特别是学习迁移理论，以及推动教育和管理实践的发展进步具有重要的意义。     

Why do participants in voluntary organizations leave? Exploring the relationship between value congruence and length of stay

Recognizing the importance of values and the specific characteristics of participants and situations in voluntary organizations, we examine how value congruence—the fit or compatibility of values between participants and the organization, or among participants—interacts with personal and situational factors to predict participants' length of stay in their organizations. Introducing the case of a voluntary organization that offers shared housing, we measure value congruence through textual similarity in the self‐introduction documents of 49 participants and the organization's mission statement. This approach differs from the self‐reported measures based on participants' perceptions or recalled interactions used in previous studies. In line with expectation‐disconfirmation theory, participants with the strongest beliefs in organizational values had shorter lengths of stay. The amount of intraorganizational communication also moderated the relationship between value congruence and length of stay. This study provides theoretical and methodological implications for nonprofit management by considering personal and situational factors and evaluating value congruence by textual similarity.     

On the enumeration of rectangular (0, 1)-matrices

The construction and enumeration of (0, 1)-matrices with given line-sums is described for the rectangular cases often encountered in applications. Improved approximations are provided for the number of such matrices. Some new enumeration results for semi-regular bipartite graphs are included, and the related category of the quasi-semiregular bipartite graphs is recognized. The range of certain elements of products of a (0, I)-matrix is considered as a function of the line-sums. This, in turn, is related to the range in the numbers of interchanges available. Improvements in statistical practice that come from these constructions and enumerations are described.     

突发事件应急管理中的情景适应度研究

在突发事件的处置过程中,每个阶段对情景的确定决定了突发事件应急管理的工作方式和决策制定的指向性,从而影响整体应急管理工作的总体决策判断。本文主要针对突发事件应急情景选取问题,由粗到细的采用具有语义接近范围的情景适应度方式和情景属性云匹配方式进行情景确定问题的收敛,从而能够相对精确的确定应急处置过程中的情景,为系统决策提供支持。     

Three‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well‐organized management of NUC ships.